DALLAS — Evan Carter made his debut for the Texas Rangers on Sept. 8, just 10 days after his 21st birthday. And he arrived with plenty of hype: A toolsy centerfielder who excelled at every level of the minors and who became the top prospect in the organization.
Three weeks later, Carter, somehow, is exceeding any lofty expectations.
The rookie is hitting .320 with five homers, 12 RBIs and a .426 on-base percentage across 50 at-bats in 19 games. He was at it again Wednesday night against the Angels, drawing a full-count walk and knocking a two-run homer to give the Rangers some insurance runs in the ninth inning.
Carter's walks and overall patience at the plate have been a hallmark of his game: He has 10 walks this month and chases out of the strike zone less than 10% of the time. In the minors he drew 179 walks in 246 games and carried a .410 on-base percentage.
But Carter's unexpected value to the Rangers might be his power. His five homers are joined by three doubles and a triple, giving him a .720 slugging percentage.
The extra-base hits have always been there; he doubled 17 times and tripled six times in 108 games in the minors this year. The surge of homers seems to be more unexpected for a 21-year-old who's still developing his power, and his frame.
Scouts have lauded Carter's game over the last year, but with one caveat: Don't expect booming power.
"He makes consistent contact with a clean left-handed swing, and his bat speed and the leverage in his lanky 6-foot-2 frame should lead to at least average power once he adds some needed strength and pulls pitches more frequently."
And if you watch Carter play, you can see what the scouts are talking about. He doesn't look like a power hitter, and when he does make contact, it's often on a line drive.
And yet, the ball jumps off his bat.
His homer Wednesday night against the Angels was struck at a launch angle of 19 degrees, a number that's typically seen in line drives. But at a 103 mph exit velocity, it flew out of the park, just clearing the left-field wall. Two other Carter homers have been in that line-drive launch angle zone, against the Red Sox (22 degrees) and Mariners (20 degrees) last week.
His first homer, against the Blue Jays, and his fourth, against the Mariners, were more of the towering variety. But you don't need to be a scout to see why Carter's power is somewhat sneaky. He doesn't have a majestic home run swing. He doesn't mash a ball and stop and stare at it. In fact, he appears to be halfway out of the batter's box when he makes contact.
His power still looks like a mystery, until you see the ball fly out of the park.
The end result, between the homers and walks and his defense in left field, is that Texas added tremendous value when they called up Carter.
In just 19 games, Carter has accumulated 1.3 wins above replacement, or WAR, an overall metric that measures a player value compared to that of a "replacement level" player. If you've made it this far, you likely have an idea about what makes a good WAR -- a typical All-Star might have 3-4 in a full season; Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, who are having career years, are just above 7; an MVP might have 10.
So 1.3 WAR might not sound like much, but in just three weeks of action, it puts Carter in the same neighborhood as heralded Red Sox rookie Masataka Yoshida, high-paid shortstop Carlos Correa and Phillies star Nick Castellanos.
And remember Elly De La Cruz, the Reds rookie who set the league on fire in June? He's at 0.7 WAR through 94 games, half of what Carter has done.
Carter likely won't stay on this pace, either this year or next. But for a Rangers team that limped through August, and nearly bottomed out, an MVP month from a 21-year-old rookie has been nothing short of incredible.