DALLAS — No. It's not going to snow next week in North Texas.
It's the most wonderful time of the year. The holidays are around the corner. The weather is getting colder. And social media starts to light up with snow "forecasts."
I say "forecasts" because they aren't really forecasts. They are usually a map created by one run of one computer model. Anyone with a computer can save an image and post it to social media without context. If you see snowfall "forecasts" (maps of crazy snow amounts in North Texas) take them with a HUGE grain of salt.
You will see these maps posted frequently this time of the year. Think back over the past several years, how many times did you see one of these maps on social media, and then it snowed or we ended up with six inches of snow? Pretty much zero.
Why can't these maps be trusted?
There are numerous weather computer models producing numerous runs of their model every day. On any given day, there might be hundreds of different model runs one can look at. This time of year, several of them or maybe only one of them shows snow a week from now.
Which of those model runs do you think gets posted to social media?
But the VAST majority of them show no snow. Also that same computer model either the next run or maybe the next day will completely flip the forecast and show it dry or just rain or really warm, etc. I don't think I've ever seen one of those maps get posted to social media as a follow-up.
It is the job of the meteorologist to weed through these model runs to figure out what is believable and what is not. MOST of the time these crazy snow projections are not believable.
I like snow just as much as the next person, and it is fun to dream. However, if you get your hopes up over every single model run or every single post on social media that shows snow, you're in for a long and disappointing winter.
So what is going to happen next week?
Another strong cold front will arrive on Monday bringing back cold conditions to North Texas for the first half of next week. There may be a reinforcing shot of cold air as well during the second half of the week.
Some freezing temps will be possible once again in the morning by next Tuesday and Wednesday.
A few, but certainly not all, weather computer models show a passing disturbance or two bringing rain to North Texas in that colder air. However, the air does not look cold enough for snow or a significant winter weather event.
My forecast as it looks now: Turning colder Monday with some cold rain. Staying cold to chilly for a few days. Dry most of the rest of the week, but if there is any other precipitation during the week it would be rain.
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