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Here we go again. Another hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico.
But at least for the U.S., this storm will have a much different outcome than Beryl, Helene, and Milton.
Hurricane Rafael
After becoming a hurricane near the Cayman Islands, Rafael made landfall along the western part of Cuba on Wednesday afternoon. The storm even intensified into a major hurricane becoming a Category 3 storm with winds of 115mph.
As of Wednesday evening, the storm remains a hurricane and has moved offshore of Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico.
Where is Rafael headed?
The storm will start to track almost due west through the southern Gulf of Mexico for the rest of the week and into the weekend. It will be moving fairly slowly during this time and may stay a hurricane at least through the start of the weekend.
Heading through the weekend, Rafael will encounter increasingly unfavorable conditions for the storm to move northward toward the U.S. Gulf Coast. This will cause 1 or 2 outcomes or a combination of both:
- Rafael will encounter wind shear which will cause the storm to weaken dramatically
- The storm will be steered even more southwest toward the southern Gulf of Mexico
Either option will keep Rafael away from the U.S. coast as a significant storm. If conditions change and the storm can start to track toward the U.S., those conditions are not favorable for additional strengthening. In fact, the storm will most likely almost fizzle out before it would even reach the U.S. coast.
If the storm can stay farther south in the Gulf of Mexico, it may not weaken as much and could maintain a stronger intensity. If this occurs, an eventual landfall in Mexico is possible.
