DALLAS — Many people are drawing comparisons between Ida and Katrina. Eerily enough, they're expected to share the same date of landfall. Katrina was August 29, 2005 and Ida will make landfall August 29, 2021. While there are tons of similarities to be found, subtle differences between the two could make a big difference in what happens in New Orleans.
The storm surge with Hurricane Ida is expected to be extreme and life-threatening. Some parts of the Louisiana coast could see storms surge of 10-15 feet.
So, what is storm surge? Simply put, t's the rise in sea level compared to where normal tide would be. The water of the ocean is pushed inland from the intense force of tropical systems. With that being said, the direction the storm moves, the intensity of the winds in the storm, how fast the storm is moving, and where those winds track is vital in determining where the biggest storm surge will take place.
How will Ida's storm surge compare to Katrina?
This is a question being asked by many. Rainfall totals and wind speeds from the storms themselves are expected to be very similar: Katrina made landfall as a category 3 with winds of 125 MPH and Ida is expected to make landfall as a category 4 with winds of 130 MPH.
Storm surge forecasting, as we mentioned before, takes A LOT of factors into account. Even the most subtle difference in path, intensity, speed of the storm, etc. can change who sees what kind of storm surge. With that being said, the track of north hurricanes is looking very similar.
See that subtle difference between the two storms before landfall? Right now, and this could change, this may help spare New Orleans from seeing storm surge like it did with Katrina. While it will still be life-threatening and extreme, it may not be quite as severe.
The fetch of the wind across Lakes Borgne and Pontchartrain from Katrina's path created the intense, 15+ feet of storm surge in New Orleans.
The hope with Ida, at least for New Orleans, is that this less direct/northwest path will ease the storm surge potential for both Lakes Borgne and Pontchartrain.