CORPUS CHRISTI, Texas — While we've seen a normal amount of hurricanes and major hurricanes through today's date, we've been slacking a bit when it comes to the number of named storms we've seen this year. By today's date, we should've already seen seven named storms - we've only seen five so far.
That being said, the tropics are definitely waking up. The NHC is currently monitoring three areas of interest. Two in the Central Atlantic have medium chances of development over the next seven days. We're not concerned with these.
What we're keeping a close eye on is Invest 91-L in the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Its chances of development have been steadily increasing since yesterday. It now sits at a high 80% chance of development over the next seven days and a medium 60% chance of development over the next two days.
The chance of development says nothing about how strong a storm may become, which is what our local forecast will hinge on in the coming days.
We've got a weak cold front traversing the Coastal Bend. Not only does that mean a brief break from the humidity, it also adds a good amount of wind shear over Texas. Wind shear discourages tropical development/organization. That being said, we are still expecting at least a tropical depression to form.
There are still a handful of things we don't know yet about this system, namely how strong it gets and where exactly it tracks:
• A system that moves closer to the Texas coast will contend with more wind shear, meaning it stays weaker. This scenario would bring us the most direct impacts and highest rainfall totals.
• A system that organizes quicker and becomes stronger will be steered farther off the coast and more northerly/easterly. This would take the higher rain chances away from us.
Either way, it looks like we'll be seeing dangerous beach conditions and potentially some coastal flooding as this skirts on by. We have issued Weather Impact Alert Days for Tuesday and Wednesday due to the potential for impacts and heavy rainfall those days.
For our full local weather expected with this system, head on over to our forecast post.
Most intensity forecast models are keeping the disturbance confined to tropical storm strength. Take it with a grain of salt - models aren't the most reliable before a storm has developed a clear center of circulation.
The next name on the list is Francine.
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The Atlantic Hurricane Season runs from June 1 to November 30, with the peak of the climatological peak of the season happening on September 10.
Here are the names for the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Names are given to tropical cyclones (tropical storms and hurricanes).
On May 23, NOAA released their forecast for the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season. They're predicting an above-average year, with 17-25 named storms. This is the highest pre-season forecast they've ever issued.
The high number of storms forecast is due to near-record sea surface temperatures and the return of La Nina, both of which favor tropical cyclone development. We talk more about those in our Hurricane Special, which you can watch here!
Remember to not "anchor" to the first forecast you see - forecasts change. Also, rely on a credible source for your tropical information and forecasts.
