DALLAS — Hurricane Helene significantly damaged parts of Florida, Georgia, The Carolinas and Tennessee this past week. As people are still recovering and assessing the damage, another storm is brewing in The Gulf of Mexico this week.
Kirk? Leslie? Milton?
A disturbance currently in the western Gulf of Mexico will slowly move east into the central Gulf of Mexico through the weekend and early next week. It could become the next tropical depression or tropical storm. Right now, it has a 50% chance of developing in the next 7 days.
"Kirk" ended up forming out in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean same with "Leslie."
"Milton" is the next name in line.
However, we are still multiple days out from a storm forming or getting its act together, so the exact track, intensity, etc. will be worked out this week. But the most likely area of landfall IF there is one, would be the Gulf Coast of Florida.
At a minimum, rainfall will increase for parts of the Gulf Coast with favored areas being the eastern half of the Gulf. At a maximum, a storm could form, which would bring rain, wind, and storm surge to parts of the Gulf Coast states. Florida is the most likely area.
What about Texas?
October typically does not bring much tropical activity to Texas. In fact, only 6 hurricanes or tropical storms have made landfall in Texas during October on record (records go back to the 1800s).
The overall pattern usually doesn't favor significant tropical systems moving into Texas. With this next storm potential in the Gulf -- is it possible Texas could see a storm? Yes.
Is it very likely? Not at this point.
This tropical disturbance is occurring in a very common area for October. Favored areas of formation are in the southern/western Caribbean, eastern Gulf of Mexico, and off the East Coast of the U.S. And usually tracks are north/northeastward from that point.
