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El Niño is fading, what does that mean for DFW severe weather this spring?

El Niño was the dominant pattern this winter but is weakening heading through the spring. That could influence spring severe weather in North Texas.

DALLAS — The spring equinox is about a month away, but spring weather has already arrived in North Texas. With spring weather comes spring thunderstorms and the threat for severe weather, but what role does El Niño play in spring severe weather?

El Niño Update

El Niño conditions still exist but they are weakening. After spending the entire winter in El Niño conditions, forecasts have El Niño continuing through April before fading to neutral conditions by May. A weak La Niña may develop by the summer into this fall.

Credit: WFAA

El Niño impact on severe weather

Even though El Niño is weakening, it will still be around most of the spring. Looking at historical data we can see how El Niño has affected past springs when it comes to severe weather.

The general trend is for decreased hail and tornado potential during El Niño springs.

However, that does NOT mean severe weather will not happen and we won't see hail storms and tornadoes at times!

It just means that overall the spring may be less active than a normal spring.

Credit: WFAA
Credit: WFAA

El Niño tornadoes

We went back and looked at recent similar years to what we are currently experiencing: a weakening El Niño heading into spring after a winter in an El Niño. 

That may give us some insight into what to expect this spring since conditions are similar.

The results are a pretty mixed bag.

North Texas averages around 18 tornadoes during the spring months (March, April, May), but years with a weakening El Niño were a little above normal (2019), normal (2016), and well below normal (1998).

Not a ton of data to go on, but a near-normal to slightly below-normal spring when it comes to tornadoes would line up with recent history.

Credit: WFAA

Bottom line

This spring WILL have severe weather!

And all it takes is one storm hitting you or your neighborhood to possibly change your life forever.

Stay weather aware, stay prepared, and have a severe weather plan.

This spring may be near normal or slightly below normal when it comes to severe weather, but that does not mean we won't have hail or tornadoes. Both of these can be life-changing events if they hit the wrong place at the wrong time. 

No need to be scared. Just prepared, like you are every spring.

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