DALLAS — "I'm … dreaming... of a white... Christmas... Just like the ones I used to know???"
No chance Bing Crosby ever lived in Texas if he's familiar with white Christmases.
What defines a white Christmas?
There's a very precise definition, and it's simple. There needs to be 1" of snow on the ground on Christmas Day. That's it. It doesn't need to be falling on Christmas Day and it doesn't have to be a snow burial.
The national odds
I don't think it's a surprise, but our overall chances in Texas are just not great. It's not zero! But DFW is no Chicago or Denver when it comes to snow on the ground for Christmas.
Where in Texas can you go to increase your odds a little bit? The Panhandle! While the chances are not great, it's better than the overall less than 5% chance we have across North Texas in any given year.
# Location Odds of Having a White Christmas
1 Hereford 12.4%
T1 Pampa 12.4%
3 Hartley 12.2%
4 Perryton 12%
5 Umbarger 11.5%
6 Dalhart 10.8%
7 Friona 9.9%
8 Amarillo 9.3%
9 Borger 8.9%
10 Dimmitt 8.4%
When was the last white Christmas?
Do you remember 2009 and 2012? It was a magical Christmas for many in North Texas! And those were the last white Christmases in the area. So, it's been a while. Some might even say we're overdue...
From the records of the National Weather Service, 2009: On December 24, rare blizzard conditions impacted areas mainly northwest of the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex. Some locations received as much as 9 inches of snow from Jacksboro to Bowie to northwestern Cooke County. Winds gusted over 50 mph, with drifts as high as 3 to 5 feet. Portions of U.S. Highway 287 between Decatur and Wichita Falls were impassable from Christmas Eve into Christmas morning. The 3 inches of snow at DFW Airport was the first measurable snowfall on record for Christmas Eve. In Montague County, snow remained on the ground into the new year.
From the records of the National Weather Service, 2012: On December 25th, a strong upper level system and cold front first brought hail-producing thunderstorms to the region, then a winter weather event that included snow and sleet. The storms produced lots of pea-sized hail and occasionally slightly larger hail. The snow fell generally north of a line from Breckenridge to Palestine. The greatest concentration of heavy snow was in western Denton County and Collin County where 4-6 inches of snow fell. There were also isolated locations that received 4-6 inches of snow in Parker, Grayson, Fannin, Hunt, and Emory counties. The overall impacts from the sleet and snow were minimal, but there were the usual impacts on transportation in the region when the snow froze on area roads that night; especially on elevated roadways, bridges, and overpasses.
Forecast specifically for this year:
Well, it's a bit too early to give you an exact forecast for Christmas, but the overall long-range pattern doesn't look good for our chances. Temperatures look more likely to remain close to normal as we end December. That means highs in the middle 50s are more likely than any deep blasts of Arctic air, which we need for a good snow here.
While I would not count on a white Christmas here based on the climatological odds and this year's long-range pattern we see... Don't lose hope North Texas. Maybe this year we will see a Christmas Miracle!
