DALLAS — Summer arrived early in North Texas with 90s making an appearance around 2 months ahead of schedule!
So, the number-one question I keep getting is, "do the warm temps this winter mean it is going to be an awful summer?"
Some people aren't even nice enough to ask the question and just declare it is going to be a brutal summer.
Are they right?
Has it really been a VERY warm winter?
This may surprise you -- maybe not as much as you think.
It seems quite a few of you have forgotten how cloudy, chilly and rainy the month of January was, which has helped offset the warmth from December and so far this February.
To date (February 26th), this winter is tied for the 13th warmest on record. Not in the Top 10...yet.
December was 4.7 degrees above normal but January was 3.3 degrees below normal. So far, this February is running well above normal. 7.3° above normal to be exact! But to date, the winter overall is running 2.6 degrees above normal.
It's certainly an above normal winter, but maybe not quite as warm as you thought.
But freezes have been in short supply
While temps overall may not have been as warm as you thought they may have been, freezes definitely have been running well below normal this winter.
To date, DFW has seen 15 freezes during this cold season, but DFW averages around 26 freezes to date.
In fact, those 15 freezes are few enough to put this cold season in the Top 10 fewest freezes on record!
What does this mean for the summer?
In short, not a ton.
The winter does not directly influence the summer. Patterns like El Nino and La Nina are much more of an influence on what we see during the summer.
One of the first things to remember, is all summers are hot in North Texas. Even if they are below normal. So yes, it will be a hot summer. It always is. Now just how hot is much more of a question.
Of the Top 10 Warmest Winters on record, 2 of the following summers went on to be Top 10 Hottest Summers. Including this past winter.
- Winter 2022-2023 (7th warmest winter) --> 3rd hottest summer on record
- Winter 1951-1952 (4th warmest winter) --> 7th hottest summer on record
Looking at the other eight Top 10 Warmest Winters, the following summers ranged from the 17th warmest to 93rd warmest out of 124 years of records.
Could it be well above normal this summer? Anything is possible! But the odds are not in our favor for a record setting summer. So anyone saying that this summer is going to be absolutely brutal, maybe give them a little fact check on our behalf.