DALLAS — As the winter months approach, North Texans are already looking ahead to the forecast for the winter months. More data is piling in and it looks like La Niña is expected to influence weather patterns for the upcoming winter season, so what can we expect?
Here is a breakdown of the latest winter weather forecast for North Texas.
The Brief Answer
This winter, expect warmer and drier conditions across North Texas, typical for La Niña years. However, don't count out a few cold snaps or winter storms. Previous La Niña influenced winters include 2020-2021, 2021-2022, and 2022-2023.
An average winter will produce about 8.13 inches of rain with an average temperature of 48.3°. Notice our average temperature is above freezing. This does not mean that we won't have cold snaps. It just means they are likely to be less frequent.
The Detailed Answer
The 2024-2025 U.S. Winter Outlook, released by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, shows a slowly developing La Niña shaping the upcoming winter for most of the country. La Niña, marked by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures along the Equatorial Pacific, alters weather patterns across North America.
For North Texas, La Niña typically leads to drier and warmer conditions, especially compared to El Niño years. The jet stream associated with La Niña keeps winter storms north, meaning regions like the Pacific Northwest and the Great Lakes see more snow and rain, while Texas often stays warmer and drier.
How cold will it get?
North Texas can expect warmer-than-normal temperatures this winter. This doesn't mean we won’t see cold days—typical Texas weather includes sudden changes—but overall, the season will trend milder than usual. The strongest warming trends will likely be in areas along the Gulf Coast, extending into South and West Texas.
Will Texas get snow this winter?
For rainfall, North Texas should prepare for a drier-than-normal season. The jet stream, which usually drives winter storms, will likely stay farther north, leaving our region with fewer rain events. This means a reduced chance of widespread winter precipitation like snow or ice. However, sporadic cold fronts could still bring brief periods of wintry weather.
Reminder: What does La Niña mean?
While La Niña winters in North Texas are often milder and drier, winter weather patterns can be tricky. Texas is known for its extremes, so it’s still possible to see cold outbreaks or an isolated winter storm. Keep in mind that these forecasts represent averages, and day-to-day conditions will likely vary. It is important to keep up with the WFAA Weather Team’s forecast as the weather evolves each week!