It has been decided.
With Green Bay’s win over New York on Sunday night, the Dallas Cowboys will host the Packers in the NFC Divisional round next Sunday, January 15 at 3:30 p.m. This will be Dallas and Green Bay’s eighth all-time meeting in the playoffs.
Looking back:
Dallas knocked off Green Bay 30-16 in October during the Cowboys’ 11-game winning streak. Dak Prescott went 18-of-27 for 247 yards, three touchdowns and one interception while Ezekiel Elliott carried 28 times for 157 yards.
On the other side, Aaron Rodgers was less-than-spectacular, going 31-of-42 for 294 yards, one touchdown and one interception. The loss came right before the Packers went on a four-game losing streak that put their playoff hopes in doubt, and also before Rodgers then found his MVP-caliber form.
What to watch for:
With his Packers sitting at 4-6, Aaron Rodgers said Green Bay would run the table. And win out they did. Green Bay has won seven straight games dating back to November and comes into the game with Dallas white-hot. During their winning streak, Rodgers has thrown for 19 touchdowns without an interception. He has simply been spectacular, and will present a huge problem for the Cowboys’ defense with his ability to maneuver in the pocket and extend plays with his legs.
The Packers’ biggest weakness is their secondary, which was decimated with injuries down the stretch. This in mind, the game will likely be a quarterback dual between Rodgers and Prescott.
Prescott v. Rodgers by the numbers
Prescott: 311/459, 3,667 yards, 23 touchdowns, 4 interceptions.
Rodgers: 401/610, 4,428 yards, 40 touchdowns, seven interceptions.
An Achilles heel:
Green Bay had the second-worst passing defense in the NFL, with opponents averaging 8.1 yards per attempt and 269 yards per game in the regular season. The Packers surrendered 32 passing touchdowns on the season and 4,308 yards.
While Dallas’ passing numbers aren’t eye-popping, the Cowboys finished with the fifth-best offense in the NFL averaging 377 yards per game. With an extra week to prepare and get healthy, Dallas will have a full compliment of weapons on the outside in Dez Bryant, Terrance Williams, Jason Witten and Cole Beasley to try and take advantage of what has been a porous Packers secondary.
Defense wins championships:
Rod Marinelli lovingly refers to them as his “group of orphans.” Despite dealing with injuries and suspensions along their defensive line, the Cowboys ended the regular season as the NFL's 14th-best defense, with opponents averaging 344 yards per contest. Dallas was also particularly stout against the rush, boasting the NFL’s best rushing defense. The Cowboys never allowed a 100-yard rusher in any game this year, with opponents averaging just 3.9 yards per carry.
On the Green Bay side, the Packers had the eighth-best rushing defense in the league, giving up 1,515 rushing yards during the regular season. Elliott in particular had a big day against Green Bay back in October, and will look to open up the passing attack by gouging the Packers on the ground.
Injuries:
Green Bay wide receiver Jordy Nelson left Sunday’s game against New York with a rib injury after taking a big hit in the first half. He did not return, and his status for the Packers’ tilt with Dallas is unknown. Eddie Lacy, Green Bay’s starting running back when the year began, was placed on injured reserve at the end of October with an ankle injury and will also be unavailable.
For the Cowboys, they are hoping for defensive back Morris Claiborne’s return. Claiborne has been sidelined the past two months with a groin injury, but has said he hoped to be back in time for the playoffs. Defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence and left tackle Tyron Smith have also had time to rest and recover from minor ailments, and should be ready to go on Sunday.
Final thoughts and prediction:
A lot has changed since Dallas played Green Bay nearly three months ago. The Packers are arguably the NFL's hottest team right now, and bring with them a sure-fire hall of fame quarterback with a super bowl on his resume. Prescott and Elliott have had time to develop and continue to gel. Dallas owned the best record in the NFC at 13-3 for a reason, and were arguably the most consistent team in the league.
But it will be no easy task putting away Rodgers & Co.
It will likely be a shootout at Jerry World on Sunday, and while it will be close, I think the Cowboys finally get over the hump and back to the NFC Championship game.
Prediction: Dallas 34, Green Bay 31.
Oh, and Dez caught it.
For more analysis, follow Reece on Twitter at @ReeceWaddell15!
