DALLAS — Last week when we started the Top 15 with future utility outfielder Scott Heineman, a reader sent me a question on the Twitter machine. Anyway, Dustin asked a question about prospect evaluation when it comes to results and levels. You can see my answer to him here, but I wanted to take some space here and elaborate since it applies to today's player.
As I mentioned to Dustin, results are a tricky thing to trust when it comes to judging a prospect's value. Not all prospects are equal is an axiom worth memorizing. There's a possibility when a hitter is stepping to the plate, he's facing an out of place pitcher, be it too good or not good enough. Either way, that will affect what results are garnered and therefore can make said hitter look better or worse than they are.
There's the possibility that an organization is taking things slowly with a player, leaving them at a level longer than necessary out of an abundance of caution. Those and other permutations of the same idea alter the talent pool at every level, skewing the results to the point where reading off a stat sheet is only but so valid.
There's also something more subjective at play: Often times teams tell players to work on something specific in any given outing or stretch of play. A certain pitcher may have been given a missive to work on the fastball this time out, so they'll be throwing it more than normal. If that's not a good fastball, hitters will feast and vice versa if the heater is something spectacular. Same thing goes for hitters, who are given missions with the hope of refining specific skills that don't always show out in isolated stretches.
So with all these qualifiers and conditions listed, and more not given, how does one judge a prospect?
A lot of it is the eyeball test. Watching a swing or release, tracking how a batter works a count (or doesn't) or the motion on pitches coming from the mound. Minor league baseball is a laboratory environment; while winning is encouraged its much more a factory for talent than wins. The results don't matter as much, though they can be a good tell on when a player has harnessed that talent.
Which leads us to today's prospect: Anderson Tejeda.
Anderson Tejeda is a name you might be familiar with if you follow the Texas system at all, though an echelon down from the Taveras and Crouse group that draw superstar comps. Tejeda is a great example of a player one might refer to as a tool shed. He's got boat loads of talent, and the question now is if/when he'll fit those puzzle pieces together to form a picture of an actual productive baseball player.
Names like Tejeda are what make minor league baseball and prospect evaluation frustratingly exciting at times. If all the tools come together, look out because you've got a star. That doesn't happen as often as everyone wants, so instead what you'll have is a player who teases you with what they could be while remaining what they are.
That isn't to say that we already know which one Tejeda will be, because we've got years before we figure out what category the nimble middle infielder falls into. The potential of one, while the fear of the other makes players like him however some of the more thrilling to follow and evaulate in all of minor league baseball.
Also, the Anderson Tejedas of the world make it hard for your local neighborhood writer to pin down and give you a succinct profile for your favorite website/app.
Name: Anderson Tejeda
Age: 20
Height/Weight: 5 ft 11, 185 lbs.
Position(s): Middle infield, primarily SS
Bats/Throws: Left/Right
How he got here: Signed in the 2014 J2 signing period as a free agent from the Dominican Republic at 16 years old for $100,000.
What he does well: As mentioned above, Tejeda has a lot of skills and abilities that make him a player worthy of a top ten prospect honor. The 20 year old has a lot of bop in the bat, great wheels, and a strong arm which earned him his spot as a shortstop and occasional second baseman.
After a rocky 2017 where Tejeda spent his entire year at one level (low A Hickory), a move up to High A Down East has treated him well. Tejeda is sporting a career high in homers with 14, RBIs with 60, and a nice 20 point bump on his OPS (.749 as opposed to 2017's .721), all of which indicates that the growth at the plate is blossoming with a month or so left to go in his season.
Defensively, Tejeda has been up the middle since signing with the Texas organization. Outside of five games at third base, his name has been penciled in at shortstop (236 games) and second base (75 games). With his speed and arm, he profiles as a future big leader double play turner. The potential is there, and it shouldn't be slept on.
What he needs to work on: On the other side of all that potential is that it's still potential. Tejeda has struggled at times to make contact with an aggressive approach and a swing that could be described as a total sell out for power. In addition, there is a need for Tejeda to improve his pitch recognition which isn't unusual for someone his age.
There's no doubt Tejeda possess the physical tools to become a monster at the plate. The near future for him will be all about refining those softer skills that'll glue together all these traits.
Meanwhile, while everything said about Tejeda's defensive tools is true, there are questions about whether they can be harnessed at shortstop. The accuracy of his cannon is in doubt, despite its considerable power. There's some thought that you could shift Tejeda to center field, where his speed and arm would be big assets. For now though, the organization seems content to let him figure out the infield as they've spent the better part of the last few years acquiring many possible future center fielders.
What his future can be: A trademark boom or bust type player, Tejeda can infuriate and infatuate within the same game. One thing is for sure: Tejeda needs to improve one half of his game if he wants to be a big leaguer some day. The path of least resistance would be to become better at pitch recognition, dial back on the home run swing, and show more patience at the plate. As a wise man often says “If you can hit, you can stay” and Tejeda has all the pieces to be a great hitter.
That said, what seems more likely is a compromise effort. The strikeouts will probably remain, as the taboo around them has and will continue to erode. If he can develop a Gallo-esque eye allowing him to walk more, while using that patience to force pitchers to throw him more hittable pitches, 100+ strikeouts is excusable in the long run.
At the same time, Tejeda needs to settle into a position. Be it reining in his arm to handle shortstop or second, or abandoning the infield altogether for a spot in center field, there's a place for Tejeda in the field if he can put it together. That's the benefit of having more tools than your local Ace: there's always another option.
I can't stress this next part enough; Tejeda is only 20 years old. There's a great likelihood he'll start next season in Frisco about six weeks before he can legally drink. A 20 year old in Double A with loud tools is golden, and whether he develops in this farm system or in someone else's, Tejeda is dripping with potential. This is a name to stash away in your mind, check in on every couple of months, and dream on what could be as bright future as is possible.
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Itching to ask Samuel your own questions about how we rank the prospects on this list or learn more about Anderson Tejeda? Feel free to reach out to him on Twitter @thesamuelhale.
