ARLINGTON, Texas — Argentina will look to defend its Copa America title this summer and win their third straight major tournament, bookending their 2022 World Cup.
Copa America 2024 will be held in the United States for only the second time ever. The U.S. hosted Copa America Centenario in 2016, the centenary edition of the tournament.
Through a partnership between CONMEBOL, the South American soccer federation that hosts the tournament every four years, and North America's CONCACAF, Copa America will feature six CONCACAF teams participating as guests.
The six CONCACAF nations competing in Copa America 2024 are: the United States, Mexico, Canada, Jamaica, Panama and Costa Rica.
For an in-depth guide on what to know about the teams, click here.
So, who's going to win?
Here's what we think will happen.
Predicting the group stage winners, runners up
Two teams from every group will advance to the knockout stage of the tournament.
The groups of the CONMEBOL's Copa America are (FIFA World Ranking):
- Group A: Argentina (1), Peru (31), Chile (40), Canada (48)
- Group B: Mexico (15), Ecuador (30), Venezuela (54), Jamaica (53)
- Group C: United States (11), Uruguay (14), Panama (43), Bolivia (84)
- Group D: Brazil (4), Colombia (12), Paraguay (58), Costa Rica (52)
Here is how we predict the groups will play out:
Group A
- Winner: Argentina
- Runner up: Chile
- Analysis: Argentina are the defending champs, have the best player in the world in Lionel Messi and are 9-1-0 in all competitions headed into Copa America. Their only loss has been a 2-0 loss to Uruguay in November 2023. Chile, on the other hand, are the third-highest ranked team in FIFA's rankings for this group, but have historically performed well in this tournament. Chile won Copa America in 2016 when it was last played in the U.S., too, beating Argentina.
Group B
- Winner: Ecuador
- Runner up: Mexico
- Analysis: Mexico is the "best" team in this group, but have not been in good form as of late. El Tri has gone 4-5-1 (win-loss-draw) in their last 10 competitions, including a 4-0 loss to Uruguay on June 5 as a tune-up for this tournament. Ecuador is 6-2-2 in their last 10 matches, where they beat Uruguay, tied against Colombia and lost 1-0 to Argentina.
Group C
- Winner: Uruguay
- Runner up: United States
- Analysis: This one is the tightest margin of the whole tournament to me and will be high drama. Uruguay and the United States both play the other two nations in this group before finishing group play against each other. It's very likely both nations could win both of their games, and the matchup against each other would be for positioning in the knockout round. In the end, Uruguay I think is the stronger side right now, with wins against both Argentina and Brazil since the fall of 2023. Uruguay also drummed Mexico 4-0, as noted above, just a few weeks ago. I will say, however, this is the result I'm least confident in.
Group D
- Winner: Colombia
- Runner up: Brazil
- Analysis: Plain and simple: Colombia is an absolute wagon right now. They haven't lost a match in 23 straight games, dating back to their February 2022 1-0 loss to Argentina. Since then, Colombia has beaten Mexico (twice), Germany, Brazil, Spain, USA and more. Brazil may be the highest-ranked team by FIFA in this group, but they're on an absolute heater right now. Don't forget they also just embarrassed the United States at the beginning of June, handing them a 5-1 defeat, one of the worst in USMNT history. Brazil is too talented to not advance out of the group, though.
Predicting the knockout stage. Who will win the 48th Copa America title?
Quarterfinals:
- 1A vs 2B: Argentina vs. Mexico – Argentina wins
- 2A vs. 1B: Chile vs. Ecuador – Ecuador wins
- 1C vs. 2D: Uruguay vs. Brazil – Brazil wins
- 2C vs. 1D: USA vs. Colombia – Colombia wins
Semifinals:
- Argentina vs. Ecuador – Argentina wins
- Brazil vs. Colombia – Colombia wins
Final:
- Argentina vs. Colombia – Argentina wins (PKs)
Third place match:
- Brazil vs. Ecuador – Brazil wins
Knockout round analysis:
If the groups played out differently, I think there would be a legitimate shot for the United States to make the semifinals. If USA can find a way to win their group and face Brazil instead of Colombia in the quarterfinals, I think there is a better chance for a deeper run from the Stars and Stripes. I don't see them beating Colombia in any shape or form, however. I would have had them losing to Colombia in the semifinal if that were the case.
I think Argentina cruises to the final against arguably two of the weaker sides left in the knockout stages in Ecuador and Mexico. An Argentina versus Colombia final would bring fireworks. Colombia is riding potentially a 28-match unbeaten streak by that point, looking to avenge their only loss in the last two years against the defending World Cup champions.
This is likely Messi's last Copa America tournament, too, so he'll be looking to hoist that trophy one more time after finally capturing it in 2021 for the first time. It's also very likely the last for Messi's right hand man on the national team, 36-year-old Angel di Maria.
Becoming only the second nation in history to win three consecutive major soccer tournaments also adds another accolade to Messi's growing legacy.
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