Somewhere between a bombshell and a fairly obvious observation, a story came out this morning, from the proverbial pen of the redoubtable Adrian Wojnarowski, implying that if Rick Carlisle is still the Mavericks' coach next year, Rajon Rondo is gone.
The funny thing about this story is it doesn't make clear whose side of the Carlisle-Rondo split the sources are on. We can assume Rondo's, but the fact that it could as easily be Carlisle's tells you a lot of what you need to know about this story.
Listen. I don't think Rajon Rondo is a bad person. I don't think his moodiness is why he hasn't worked out as a Maverick. I mean, Kobe Bryant's done some things in his career—remember when he only took three shots in the second half of a game 7 in 2006 to prove he needed to take a lot of shots—that would make Rondo look relaxed. And somehow or another the Lakers managed a lot of success. It's just that they say that when a couple is on the verge of breaking up, everything the other person does becomes unbearably annoying.
The thing is, the flaws of the rest of this Mavericks team may be as responsible for Rondo's failure as anything about him as a player. The fact that defenses can lay back on Rondo's jumpshot wouldn't be nearly so bad if, say, Dirk were still good enough to draw double teams and sometimes to score over them. Not at all the big guy's fault, he's still the best 36 year old offensive player in the league, but that's how it is.
The fact that he's afraid to draw contact at the rim because of his free throw shooting wouldn't be nearly so bad if his wraparound passes went to people who could make a three. And it's hard to believe that, even though it's certain that Rondo's play has made getting to the rim harder for Monta Ellis, that wouldn't have so entirely deterred the Monta the Mavs had early in the season. The problem with Rondo the Maverick, in addition, of course, to the fact that this isn't the same Rondo as pre-surgery Rondo, is that the team as a whole isn't good enough to overcome the trouble he gets them into.
But that's not their fault either. All teams have flaws. The Mavs' flaws just happen to be of the sort that having Rondo at PG really brings them out. It's not personal, it's not professional, it's a 'fit' thing, and Rondo—as a lot of people suggested the minute the trade was made—is a terrible fit in Dallas.
For the record, he's done a lot of the things he's supposed to do. He's shot over 50% from the floor since the beginning of April, and even, believe it or not, 50% from the 3-point line. And while his free throw percentage isn't about to wow anybody, he's very far from whatever was going on earlier in the year. He hasn't been rebounding as expected, but his Assist/Turnover rate has been one of the best in the league over the last month, a sign that he is in fact figuring out the offense.
And as I've said before, if you want to know if Rondo can still be an effective defender, look what Russ Westbrook did in three games against the Mavs without KD to take the pressure off.
Westbrook averaged 31.2 points on 46% shooting in Februray, 31 on 40% in March and 32.5 on 44% in April. Against Rondo, he shot 10-32, 7-17, and 6-23.
It just does not make sense for this team. And no, I'm not going to pretend that if only the Mavs were helmed by Jameer Nelson they'd be a juggernaut. It's not a sentence human beings can say without noticing how ridiculous it is.
I hope Rondo finds a place where he can enjoy basketball again and I hope the Mavs replace him with someone better. As Mike Fisher and David Lord point out, getting rid of Rondo, let alone Rondo and Monta, won't free up as much cap as people think. But this isn't going to start working and the most likely scenario is that it's over soon
