ARLINGTON, Texas — In an ideal world, the Texas Rangers taking on the Cleveland Guardians would be a battle between two first place teams. Instead, the Rangers fumbled the ball in Colorado, getting swept by the Rockies in convincing fashion to end a road trip that started 5-2 at 5-5 and saw their modest division lead once again become a deficit.
As a result of the collapse in Colorado, Texas is now in second place behind the Seattle Mariners. The offense was absent even at Coors Field and the Texas middle relief has also hit a difficult stretch, perhaps due to the toll that injuries have taken on the club.
While the Rangers’ patchwork rotation has upheld its end of the bargain, despite being the main component of the team that has been decimated by injuries, if Texas isn’t consistent with the bats, it makes it really hard to win games and that will be further tested as they take on a team that has loftier expectations that the NL West basement dwellers that just swept the Rangers.
Cleveland Guardians (25-16, 1st Place AL Central, +0.5 Games) @ Texas Rangers (22-20, 2nd Place AL West, 0.5 GB)
Previously, for Cleveland…
Cleveland is coming off a less than desirable outcome of their own as they dropped a four-game set against the division rival Chicago White Sox. While their bats perked up in a 7-0 Mother’s Day win to prevent a sweep, the Guardians lost three in a row to the last place White Sox, scoring a total of 6 runs in those first 3 games – oddly similar to the Rangers’ travesties in Colorado. This series in Texas wraps up a two-city road trip and a stretch of 16 games in 16 days for Cleveland.
Like with the Rangers, the offense has been the talk for the Guardians over the last few weeks, even outside of the three low-scoring games in Chicago. The month of May has seen Cleveland’s offense be about as inconsistent as the Rangers’, scoring four or fewer runs in all but four games so far this month.
Key players like Jose Ramirez, who wrapped up April with a .263/.302/.434 slash line, has fallen off. Since the calendar turned to May, Ramirez has still been slugging, but hasn’t kept up the volume of his damage, coming into the Texas series slashing .186/.265/.488. Bo Naylor, who has hurt the Rangers a lot in the past, is taking a little longer than usual to get going, and new manager Steven Vogt has been hopeful that Naylor is starting to turn the corner. Nevertheless, Naylor is slashing .167/.194/.267 in May.
Cleveland has also been missing outfielder Steven Kwan, who has been out since early May with a left hamstring strain. Kwan’s slashline at the time of his injury was .353/.407/.903, but perhaps more important was his OPS with runners in scoring position, a very impressive .845.
The Guardians, though, who field a competitive ballclub, are hanging onto first place by a thread, leading the Minnesota Twins by just a half game in an AL Central that has become far more competitive than in recent years with the Kansas City Royals also breathing down Cleveland’s neck.
What to watch for
Game 43, 7:05 PM CT - RHP Tanner Bibee (2-1, 4.91 ERA) vs. RHP Michael Lorenzen (2-2, 4.66 ERA)
Game 44, 7:05 PM CT - RHP Ben Lively (1-2, 2.63 ERA) vs. TBD
Game 45, 7:05 PM CT - RHP Carlos Carrasco (2-3, 5.36 ERA) vs. RHP Jon Gray (1-1, 2.36)
Michael Lorenzen gets the assignment in the opener, having taken the loss in Oakland after giving up six runs in six innings in his first real stinker in a Rangers uniform. Lorenzen has consistently given the Rangers six innings in his outings, but the results in those innings have been up and down in his five starts.
If the pattern holds, though, he is due for a good outing against the Guardians. For his career, Lorenzen has faced the Guardians 10 times and holds a 2-2 record with a 2.52 ERA and WHIP of 1.040.
The Rangers have an open slot in their rotation for Tuesday’s game, although that’s expected to be Jack Leiter’s third start and first appearance at home. Leiter has not been sharp in his first two outings, although he has displayed flashes that made him the 2021 No. 2 overall pick in certain innings.
Leiter was only able to go four innings in his last outing, in Oakland, looking very sharp in the first inning, but then allowing several hits and a couple of home runs in the next three innings, an outing that all but mirrored his debut last month in Detroit.
The Rangers’ defense hasn’t been very kind to Leiter in his two Major League outings, but Leiter has also had trouble recovering from the miscues and keeping damage to a minimum. With six starters on the IL, however, Leiter will continue to have a spot in the rotation until he proves to be completely untenable.
Jon Gray will close things out, having stepped up as the Rangers’ ace in the absence of Nathan Eovaldi and the injured former Cy Young winners. Gray, since coming on in a relief outing in mid-April, has been as consistent as the Rangers could have asked for, having not given up more than two runs in his last seven starts.
Gray has also gone deep into games the last three times out, and given the volatile state of the Rangers’ bullpen, that would be a welcome sight again.
Cleveland will respond with right-handers Tanner Bibee, Ben Lively and Carlos Carrasco. Bibee had a great month of April, posting a 2.96 ERA in five starts; aside from one bad outing against the White Sox, Bibee didn’t allow more than two runs in any of his starts. In his two May starts, however, he’s surrendered 10 runs total and opponents are hitting .351 against him.
Lively has been great for the Guardians, with the three runs he gave up against the White Sox over the weekend being his most given up all season in any start. The 32-year-old has not had the benefit of a lot of run support from Cleveland, but he has certainly pitched well enough to earn some wins.
Veteran Carlos Carrasco, who, at one point, was one of Cleveland’s most reliable and notable starters before joining the Mets and struggling to find footing there, will close the series back with the Guardians.
Carrasco returned to the Guardians on a minor league contract and has been on a rollercoaster of a second stint with the club. He pitched far better than what the box score would suggest in his last outing, giving up just three runs in six innings before a couple of solo home runs put the White Sox over the top in the frame after Carrasco exited. Even so, Carrasco has had trouble putting hitters away, resulting in a lot of inefficient pitch counts and shorter outings.
The Naylor brothers will be in town with the Guardians, and they have functioned as Ranger-killers in their time together. Bo, the catcher, has a .308/.357/.615 line in four games against Texas, while brother Josh, the first baseman, has played them far more, holding a .380/.456/.540 slashline in 15 games.
Coming home has traditionally been a welcome sight for the Rangers, and although it hasn’t been as friendly a welcome – Texas is just 10-9 at home so far in 2024 – this season as in recent years, the reigning champs will be hoping the bats will meet them at Globe Life Field and they can get the offense going.
Do you think the Rangers will rebound with a series win against Cleveland? Share your predictions with Matt on Twitter @FisherWritesMLB.