ARLINGTON, Texas — Eight times this season the defending World Series champion Texas Rangers have seen their record equal with the prospect of dipping below .500 for the first time since Bruce Bochy took the helm. The Rangers won each of the eight games that followed to prevent themselves from having a losing record and they will need to do so for a ninth time in the opener against the Philadelphia Phillies if they want to continue their streak of staying above .500.
Unfortunately, the Rangers – sitting at 24-24 – are not in a great way right now. They’ve dropped three series in a row – two of them to last place teams. Their run production has slowed considerably, and a surprisingly competent, albeit beleaguered pitching staff can only do so much when the bats can’t put anything on the board.
There’s really not a cure-all for what ails the Rangers’ offense; you can’t sit everyone in the lineup to give them a break, so the next logical step is to just try to let them hit out of the slump and after they couldn’t manage to do so against the likes of the Colorado Rockies and the Los Angeles Angels, they now must do so against the NL East-leading Phillies.
Texas Rangers (24-24, 2nd Place AL West, 2.0 GB) @ Philadelphia Phillies (34-14, 1st Place NL East, +5.0 Games)
Previously, for Philadelphia…
In contrast to Texas, everything is going right for the Phillies right now. They just finished a sweep of division rival Washington. They have one of the hottest hitters in baseball in Roger Clemens’ son, Kody. They haven’t lost back-to-back games since the last week of April and have won 14 consecutive series. They are enjoying their best start in franchise history. Put all that together and you have the best team in the Majors right now
During the sweep of the Nationals, Philadelphia outscored their division rivals 19-10. They received phenomenally good starting pitching from Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sanchez, and Aaron Nola, who each went seven innings and gave up two earned runs. They were even able to pull out some walk-off magic on Saturday, as Bryce Harper hit a game-winning sacrifice fly.
Clemens, the left-handed hitting infielder has been in the big leagues for all of 11 games, totaling 28 at-bats. His impact has been felt already; in a week and a half, the 2018 3rd round pick has slashed .321/.345/.821 with three homers, three doubles and 10 RBI. He supplied some of the Saturday evening magic, crushing a game-tying homer in the bottom of the 9th. Clemens is on the roster, replacing the hamstrung Trea Turner, who won’t be back for another month.
What to watch for
- Game 49, 5:40 PM CT - RHP Jon Gray (2-1, 2.08 ERA) vs. LHP Ranger Suarez (8-0, 1.37 ERA)
- Game 50, 5:40 PM CT - TBD vs. TBD
- Game 51, 12:05 PM CT - TBD vs. TBD
The Phillies have one of their best pitching in the opener. The left handed Ranger Suarez could be ruinous for a Rangers’ squad that has notably struggled against southpaws in 2024.
Suarez is coming off one of his shorter outings, against the New York Mets, however. In that start, he threw five innings, and the Phils committed two errors, leading to two unearned runs. At the end of the day, Suarez still walked away with his eighth win in his ninth start of the season.
Suarez is undefeated this year, a testament to his ability to go deep into games and prevent runs. He’s given up just nine earned runs throughout his nine starts, is averaging a 0.76 WHIP and has nearly a 6-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. In short, the Rangers, who already are among the worst in the league at hitting lefties, could be in for a long night at Citizens Bank Park.
Texas is countering with its own current de facto ace in Jon Gray. Gray was able to help get the Rangers to their only win of the series against the Cleveland Guardians last week by going 6 ⅓ shutout innings. It was the latest in a string of high quality starts from the big right-hander;, outside of the first start of the season, Gray has given Texas high quality starts all year.
Gray has yet to allow more than two runs in an outing since his season debut, and he has been able to get the strikeouts when needed with a devastating slider or induced weak contact and trusted his fielders.
Neither team has set their rotation for the two games that follow. With a couple of well-placed days off, Texas could keep in rotation and continue on schedule with Andrew Heaney and Jose Urena, with Michael Lorenzen taking the ball in Minnesota on Friday. After sending Jack Leiter back down to Triple-A, the Rangers could also use any of these next six games to throw a bullpen game and hope to keep their starters fresh.
The more likely scenario, though, is that Dane Dunning returns. Dunning has been out since May 8th with a rotator cuff strain but has been throwing bullpen sessions in preparation for being activated off the injured list. Dunning’s last outing was on May 18th; that would put him in line to start the finale at Philly, but if Texas opts to stay with their current configuration, Dunning could come back on Saturday against the Twins.
The Phillies, meanwhile, are likely waiting to see if Taijuan Walker is good to go for Wednesday. Against the Mets, Walker got hit with a sharp comebacker and suffered a big toe contusion. After a bullpen session, it was reported that he was feeling well enough to make his start against the Rangers.
Texas enjoyed a bit of good fortune against Walker during his time with the Mariners. In eight outings spanning seven starts, Walker has a 4.12 ERA against the Rangers. That includes allowing six homers over his career versus Texas.
Wheeler could be in line to close out the series. Wheeler is coming off a start against Washington in which he gave up just two runs in 7 ⅓ innings pitched. That’s how the Phillies have been so successful – a somewhat old school mentality of having the starters go deep into games and relying on good setup relief and a solid offense to finish out games.
The Rangers weren’t expected to lose five of six to two last place teams over the last two weeks. Perhaps they can rise to the occasion against one of baseball’s best squads as they hope to avoid a tumble into uncharted territory.
Do you think the Rangers will avoid going under .500 with a series win at Philadelphia? Share your predictions with Matt on X (formerly Twitter) @FisherWritesMLB.