For the second time in two seasons, Chandler Parsons will undergo season-ending surgery on his right knee. While this surgery to repair a torn meniscus isn’t expected to sideline Parsons as long as the hybrid-microfracture surgery he had last summer, it couldn’t come at a worse time for the Dallas Mavericks.
The Mavericks are currently tied for seventh place in the Western Conference with the Houston Rockets. Meanwhile, the Utah Jazz are nipping at the Mavs’ heels, just one game behind them in the standings. Essentially, Dallas is playing for its playoff life.
Recently, Parsons has been a key reason the Mavs have remained buoyant. In his last 20 games, Parsons averaged 17.5 points, 5.7 rebounds, 3.4 assists, and 1.1 steals. He’s also shooing 50 percent on field goals and 43.4 percent on 3-pointers. Because of this, head coach Rick Carlisle began leaning on him more.
During this stretch, Carlisle began playing Parsons more at the power forward. This was both an attempt to play smaller and increase the team’s offensive potency as well as give Dirk Nowitzki rest. Parsons at the 4 worked so well that he was moved there in the starting lineup with Nowitzki playing the center.
That starting lineup, which includes Deron Williams, Raymond Felton, and Wesley Matthews, has a Plus/Minus of +5 and shoots 57.8 percent from the floor and 50 percent from behind the arc. That’s the highest field goal percentage of any lineup that has appeared in at least eight games. It’s also a lineup that hung tough with the vaunted Golden State Warriors. Losing Parsons really hurts the Mavs.
Without Parsons, the team will have to look elsewhere for an offensive punch. That means relying heavily on the scoring of Dirk Nowitzki. Nowitzki dropped a 40 point gem against the Portland Trail Blazers on Sunday but at age 37, leaning on him to carry the offensive burden would be unreliable. While he still has flourishes of scoring, he also has nights where he struggles to hit his shots.
Matthews, the Mavs’ big free agent signing last summer, hasn’t shown the scoring ability that he displayed before joining Dallas. His scoring average is four points lower than it was last season and his shooting average has fallen all the way to 38.4 percent. Defensively, he’s called on nightly to guard anyone from a point guard to a power forward. He’s even matched up against centers when the Mavs play their matchup zone. The focus on the defensive end may be limiting his offensive output but it could also be a result of his ongoing recovery from the torn Achilles he suffered a year ago.
Williams will also be in line for a larger offensive role. While he’s been great late in games, he doesn’t always play well for all 48 minutes. He can get the scoring going but then cedes the scoring responsibilities to others. He’ll have to look for his opportunities more.
In fact, that can be said about any player who gets playing time for the rest of the season. Carlisle will be tinkering with his lineups even more to make up for Parsons’ absence. Rookie Justin Anderson, who has been seeing more playing time of late, could be called on more. What’s more likely, though, is that Carlisle will use a lot of three-guard lineups. He has done this for much of the season and the results have generally been positive. Why change now?
The starting lineup will see the most significant change, obviously. It stands to reason that it Carlisle can’t start a smallball lineup anymore unless he is willing to play either Matthews or Anderson at power forward. Dirk will shift back to the 4 and Matthews will start at the 3. Felton and Williams will be the guards. The real question is who he goes with at center. Zaza Pachulia might get reinserted into the starting lineup. He’s started much of the season so he’s the most likely candidate to start. However, David Lee, since joining the team, has bumped Pachulia out of the normal rotation. How much Carlisle wants to keep Lee coming off the bench with the second unit will determine if he gets a chance to start.
With all the questions surrounding Parsons and the team now, there are even more to come this summer. Parsons has the option to opt out of his current contract with the Mavericks this summer to become a free agent. Despite the injury, he is still widely expected to do so to chase a larger contract as the salary cap increases significantly. The Mavericks are assumed to be the frontrunners to resign him but there have been rumors that other teams will also be in the market for his talents.
The summer is a long way off at this point. Dallas’ focus right now is on making the playoffs. They don’t have a first round draft pick this summer unless they somehow get a pick inside the top 7. Even if the team tanks, it's incredibly unlikely scenario that they would keep their pick. It seems like nothing is ever easy for the Mavericks and Parsons’ latest injury adds to that sentiment. If the Mavericks want to make the playoffs they’ll need to dig deep and someone is going to have to step up.
