DALLAS — The Dallas Cowboys embark on their playoff journey for a third consecutive year against another familiar opponent as the Green Bay Packers come to Arlington. The Wild Card clash is a matchup made in NFL heaven. The script writers nailed this one as two of the NFL’s glamor franchises will be going at it with so much on the line.
With everything in front of them, the Cowboys look to start exorcising some playoff ghosts following a franchise-best third straight 12-win season under head coach Mike McCarthy. McCarthy, in case you need to be reminded, just so happened to win Super Bowl XLV in 2011 at AT&T Stadium with the very team he’ll be coaching against on Sunday.
This year’s Packers team, meanwhile, are one of the hottest squads in the league, winners of three straight while going 6-2 in the second half of the season to earn a playoff spot after being left for dead in the first half of the season.
The two storied franchises are no stranger to postseason matchups, of course. In eight contests in the playoffs throughout the years, the Cowboys and Packers are even with each team winning four times. Unfortunately for the Cowboys, they’ve lost the last two in heartbreaking fashion. A third consecutive playoff loss to Green Bay would be disastrous but there’s good news that can prevent that from happening.
The most important one is that there will be no Aaron Rodgers to save the day for the Packers in Sunday’s Wild Card matchup. Current quarterback Jordan Love is a good player, but he’s not at Rodgers’ level and will be starting his first postseason game in his first season as a starting QB.
Here are the keys to beating the Packers in the Wild Card round to advance for a second straight year:
Put up the barricades for Jones
This has been easier said than done for the Cowboys since Aaron Jones entered the league. The veteran running back out of UTEP has played three games against the Cowboys and he’s rushed for over 100 yards in all three, scoring six touchdowns. No player in the history of the league has run for more yards per game against Dallas than Jones.
The most memorable game happened in 2019 when Jones ran for 107 yards and found the end zone four times. In last year’s matchup between the two teams, Jones ran for 138 yards and a score.
Jones didn’t hit the 1,000-yard rushing mark this season, but he only played in 11 games and finished the year with three straight 100-yard games while averaging over 5.6 yards per carry. The Packers have gotten the running game going with a healthy Aaron Jones and the Cowboys’ defense needs to find a way to slow it down.
Run right at the Packers’ defense
Just as the Packers have gotten their running game going, the Cowboys will need to get theirs in gear as well. Dallas ran it efficiently last week and now look to be getting two of their starters back for Sunday’s clash. Starting guards Tyler Smith and Zack Martin are expected to return to the lineup to help build on the momentum.
The Packers rank 28th in the league at stopping the run, giving up over 128 yards per game on the ground. Defensive coordinator Joe Barry’s unit gave up over 200 yards on the ground four times this season, making it one of their vulnerable areas on defense.
McCarthy has not given up on trying to run the ball all season and this should be a game where the offense has more success with the rushing attack. If the Cowboys can run it well, it will make an already potent offense difficult to stop.
Throw inside the numbers
Another place where the Packers are weak is in the middle of their passing defense. No team has a worse coverage grade on seam passes than Green Bay and tight ends have feasted against their defense this year. That bodes well for Dallas tight end Jake Ferguson, who broke out in his sophomore season.
The Packers also allow the most yards per attempt and have the worst passer rating in the league on slant routes, as noted by ESPN’s Mina Kimes and Bill Barnwell. That sets the Cowboys up well with their passing game that utilizes slants to wide receiver CeeDee Lamb. Quarterback Dak Prescott and Lamb have been extremely good on in-breaking routes all year and the duo should be able to continue that success.
The Packers struggle to protect the middle of the field on defense so expect to see the Cowboys look to expose that in the passing game.
Make the tackles
If the Cowboys want to avoid the upset, they’ll need to tackle well in this game. The Packers have young, athletic skill players who excel at making people miss and gaining extra yards. Their offense is predicated on finding an open receiver and allowing them to beat defenders in space.
Rookie wide receivers Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks have been hot in the last month of the season, combining for 14 touchdowns on the year, seven of which have come in the last four weeks. Second year wideout Romeo Doubs has pitched in with a team-high eight receiving touchdowns as well.
The Packers also have two rookie tight ends – Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft – who have been effective with the ball in their hands.
Much of the Packers’ receiving damage comes from runs after the catch so the Cowboys’ defense needs to limit those yards. Stopping the big gains off missed tackles and forcing Green Bay’s offense to put together long drives would give Dallas a better chance at slowing down what has become a potent offense.
Do you think the Cowboys will break the all-time playoff tie with a win over the Packers in the Wild Card round? Share your predictions with Ben on Twitter @BenGrimaldi.