DALLAS — The Dallas Cowboys are preparing for their second straight NFC North battle when they travel to Detroit to face a reeling Lions team who is looking for a win without their franchise quarterback Matthew Stafford. Stafford is nursing an injury that involves fractured bones in his back and has kept him out since Week 9. With Stafford out, Dallas will face untested QB Jeff Driskel.
It’s possible the Lions won’t even try to make Driskel best Dallas in the air. Last Sunday, against the Vikings, the Cowboys were beaten at their own game of bullying teams in the run game while daring the other team to beat them on the ground. Minnesota dared and won on both sides of the ball. Perhaps Detroit will try something similar.
Dallas can’t afford to see another NFC team take them down. The Cowboys need a win to make sure they maintain the top claim on the NFC East crown. There won’t be many easy games left on the schedule so Dallas needs to take advantage of an ailing Lions team to keep pace with the Philadelphia Eagles who are also sitting at 5-4 on the year.
Looking at the numbers, on paper at least, this should be a runaway victory for the Cowboys but if you have been watching as this season has unfolded, you know that isn’t how things have gone for Dallas this year. Here’s a look at how they can come away with a critical win against the Lions:
Start Fast
It seems that each and every week the Cowboys could utilize a fast start as to not be playing catch up for most of the first half and into the third quarter. And, with the exception being the early routing of the Eagles in Week 7, each week the team allows lesser opponents (or what some believe are lesser) to put up early scores on them and hang around forcing Dallas to get out of their game plan to fight back from behind.
So far in 2019 the Lions have averaged 7.9 points in the first quarter which is 3rd best in the NFL while the Cowboys average 4.1. That mark is tied for 17th in the NFL, along with Philadelphia. The Cowboys are a much better team after the first quarter but if they want to be able to beat better opposition, they need to get the offense going early.
For a team that has lost four games by a combined 18 points (an average loss deficit of 4.5 points), those early minute miscues and stall outs have put Dallas behind the 8 ball and allowed teams to make the Cowboys have to claw their way back.
More Balance
The Cowboys are forever looking to get their running game going early with Ezekiel Elliott. That’s just how the team is built. But the real impact from this team in 2019 has come via the passing game.
Dak Prescott is 2nd in the NFL in passing yards but leads in passing yards per game having played one less game than current leader Phillip Rivers. In addition, the Cowboys have one of the better wide receiver tandems in the NFL with Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup with Randall Cobb stepping up production from the slot in recent weeks.
Dallas needs to attack the Lions through the air, as Detroit has the 4th worst passing defense in the NFL going up against the 3rd best passing offense. One way that the Cowboys can succeed at getting their passing attack off the ground is by mixing up the run and pass calls on first down. This isn’t to say that Dallas needs to abandon all first down run plays, but more play-action passes on first down would give Prescott and gang more scoring opportunities.
Unleash Blake Jarwin
The Cowboys obviously have an affinity for the former Oklahoma State Cowboy tight end seeing as how they kept him off the practice squad a couple of seasons ago so another team couldn’t swipe him away. Many figured Jarwin was being groomed to take over when Jason Witten finally hung ‘em up. That’s basically what happened in 2018 but then Witten came back.
However, even with a future Hall of Famer back in the mix, Jarwin’s usage this season has left many scratching their heads. Prior to the season, the team discussed how 37-year-old Witten wouldn’t see as many snaps as in years past with Jarwin as their up-and-coming threat who had started to figure things out at the end of last season with Witten still in the Monday Night Football broadcast booth.
While Dallas does play more than one tight end, the targets haven’t been balanced. When Jarwin sees the ball with some regularity, good things happen. Jarwin is a mismatch up the seam of the defense and he can fight through contact to create explosive plays. As a steady, but aging presence, that’s not something that Witten can do anymore.
The Cowboys should allow Witten to continue running underneath and sit at the first down marker to give Prescott that security while putting Jarwin in situations that put pressure on the defenders to give Prescott another downfield target who can make big plays in the middle of the field.
Allowing Jarwin to expand on what he learned from starter targets at the end of last season would open up the field a lot more for the other playmakers on offense, as well.
Prediction:
The Cowboys need this victory against Detroit to keep their playoff hopes going in a positive direction. A win is critical, especially with New England on the horizon next week in Foxboro. With that in mind, I see the Cowboys taking it to the Lions in this one and coming away with a 31-13 win. Remember, this season for Dallas, they either win big or lose close.
Do you think the Cowboys will be able to hold off the Stafford-less Lions in Detroit? Make your predictions to Patrick on Twitter @DraftCowboys.
