DALLAS — Showdown Sunday.
This one's been circled since the day the schedule came out back in May. San Francisco has squashed the Cowboys postseason hopes the last two years. Now, the undefeated Niners will provide a stiff litmus test for a Cowboys squad convinced it can contend.
Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott has been ticked off all week. It began with a question about San Francisco moments after the Cowboys blew out Bill Belichick and the Pats Sunday.
Dak wants payback.
So far this season, he's thrown fewer interceptions in the first four games (one) that than he threw in last year's playoff loss to the Niners (two). Prescott readily admits he must play better to give the Cowboys a real chance to exorcise their west coast demons. He vows to do so saying he's, "excited as hell for the matchup."
Be careful what you want, though.
Right now, in the NFL, the 49ers are the bully on the block. They feature physical and oftentimes dominant line play on both sides of the ball. They've got the NFL's third-best rushing attack and their defense is third-best in the NFL at stopping the run. Cowboys running back Tony Pollard is off to solid start after being elevated to the team's number one running back, but this week will be different.
If Pollard struggles it sets up an intriguing cat-and-mouse game between the Cowboys offense and Niners defense. San Francisco's secondary is nowhere near as talented as their front seven. So, if the Cowboys give Dak Prescott enough protection there will be opportunities for CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks, and Michael Gallup to create big plays.
The good news for Cowboys fans is the starting offensive line could actually be intact for the first time since last year's first-round pick Tyler Smith joined the squad. The man who plays next to him, Tyron Smith, whose missed the last two games, was a full participant at practice Thursday, as well fellow lineman Zack Martin. This development at least gives the Cowboys a better chance against the Niners front, but it will still be tough sledding.
Prescott has embraced what will be a big-time challenge. The Cowboys offense has moved the ball well in between the 20’s so far this season with awful results in the red zone.
The Cowboys have run 85 offensive plays in the red zone (inside the opponent’s 20-yard line) this season. The next closest team is, ironically enough, the 49ers with 54 red zone snaps.
Getting there’s not the issue – what they do then absolutely is.
In the last three games, the Cowboys are an awful 4-for-15 (27%) in terms or scoring touchdowns in the red zone. The play-calling creativity and executing must improve. The Cowboys can’t rely on the luxury of playing an inferior team and have the defense scores touchdowns and create blowouts.
So, to get the payback he wants, Dak will have to earn it.
A Quick Look at the Weekend Ahead
- Who: Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers
- When: 7:20 p.m. on Sunday, October 8, 2023
- Where: Levi Stadium (Santa Clara, Calif.)
- Weather: Sunny. Highs in the mid 80s, and lows in the high 50s.
- Watch: NBC (Mike Tirico, Cris Collinsworth, Melissa Stark)
- Listen: KRLD-FM 105.3 The Fan (Brad Sham, Babe Laufenberg, Kristi Scales)
- Last Meeting: Dallas 12 - San Francisco 19 (January 22, 2023, in Santa Clara, Calif.)
- Series Record: Tied 19-19-1
X’s and Joe’s
Find 23.
That's what the Cowboys defense will do before every snap. Niners running back Christian McCaffrey is as good as it gets in the NFL. He leads the league in rush attempts (80), rushing yards (459), and rushing touchdowns (six). He's a big play waiting to happen, and we know how the Achilles heel of this talented Cowboys defense is stopping the run.
Micah Parsons and that Cowboys defense claim they want to be considered the best in the league. This is a prime opportunity to show their awful showing against Arizona – you remember when the Cardinals racked up 182 rushing yards in the first half – was indeed a fluke. The Dallas defense stopping the run could be where this game is won for the Cowboys.
Niners quarterback Brock Purdy isn't asked to do as much as Dak Prescott, but Purdy is extremely efficient at what he's asked to do. Getting the ball out quick to Deebo Samuel and relying on his elite run-after-catch ability has victimized the Cowboys before. Fellow receiver options Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle add to the difficulty for the Cowboys assignment.
This battle will be strength-on-strength and I can't wait to see the wrinkles both teams will insert to throw the other off-base. The extra postseason battles between these teams have made them more familiar and only adds more spice to the matchup.
Bring on Showdown Sunday!
Random Stat of the Week
You can use this nugget if you're headed to a watch party Sunday night.
The Cowboys defense is lights out on third-and-long. So far this season when opponents face third-and-seven or longer, they Cowboys have stopped them 19-of-20 times.
That's a ridiculous rate!
This season, Cowboys' opponents convert on third-and-long just 5% of the time.
Cowboys Fan Bandwagon Meter
Prediction time: Joestradamus speaks!
For both teams, this week signifies a monumental step up in competition. The six teams the Cowboys and 49ers have faced this season (both played the Giants and Cardinals) are a combined 8-16 for a paltry win percentage of .333.
After that warmup (that included the Cowboys slip-up against Arizona), now it's time for what many consider THE game of the first half of the NFL season in front of a national audience on Sunday night.
Since this isn't a win-or-go-home affair, I think the Cowboys will take more chances, but that still won't be enough.
The 49ers are the class of the league right now and will beat the Cowboys 30-27.
Cowboys fans have to hope their team can close the gap (which isn't that big) before the teams possibly meet again for a third straight season in a potential playoff matchup.
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