DALLAS — While some teams have nothing to play for in Week 18, the same cannot be said for the Dallas Cowboys.
A win against the 4-12 Washington Commanders would mean the Cowboys earn the NFC East title for the second time in three years, dethroning the hated rival Philadelphia Eagles in the process.
Leaving Washington victorious has other ramifications. It would mean the Cowboys lock up the No. 2 seed in the conference to guarantee them at least two home games in the postseason, assuming they win in the wild card round. That’s a big deal since the team is 8-0 at home this year and have won 16 straight at AT&T Stadium.
Winning a 12th game would also give Mike McCarthy’s team three straight 12-win seasons, a feat no other head coach has accomplished in franchise history.
There’s a lot on the line for the Cowboys in Week 18, and here are the keys to coming home with the NFC East crown:
Give Washington no room to breathe
The Cowboys rank 14th in sacks this year with 42, but have pressured the quarterback at a high rate, which has led to turnovers. Micah Parsons leads the defense with 13 sacks, which is one sack away from a new career high, and he leads the NFL in pressures.
Commanders quarterback Sam Howell leads in the league in a dubious category, getting sacked. Howell has been taken down 61 times this season, including four by the Dallas defense in the first matchup on Thanksgiving, a game in which the Cowboys won 45-10.
Part of all those sacks is the result of a poor offensive line, but Howell also holds onto the ball too long trying to make plays. It’s a bad combination that leads to the second year quarterback being brought down at a blistering pace, and the Cowboys should be able to get to Howell.
If the defense can pressure Howell, there’s a high likelihood that they’ll come away with sacks or turnovers. Howell also leads the league in interceptions with 19. The formula is simple, get after Howell, get out of D.C. with a win.
Throw it all over the yard
The Commanders are fielding one of the worst defenses in the NFL this season, they are last in the league giving up 385 yards per game and are the only team allowing 30 points per contest. It’s also a unit that is second worst in the league against the pass.
In the first game against Washington, the Cowboys’ offense contributed 38 of the team’s 45 points, with quarterback Dak Prescott leading the way by throwing for 331 yards and four scores. The Commanders have allowed the most passing touchdowns in the league this year, surrendering 35 touchdowns passes through the air.
It could get even worse for the Commanders in the season finale with three of their top five cornerbacks potentially out of this game due to injury as defensive backs Tariq Castro-Fields, Kendall Fuller, and Christian Holmes haven’t practiced yet this week.
That’s good news for Prescott and the passing attack. Prescott leads the league in passing scores and could win the touchdown title with another good showing against the Commanders. Wide receiver CeeDee Lamb also has a chance at leading the league in receiving yards with another big game.
The Cowboys should find great success in the passing game and should be able to put up points against a depleted Commanders defense.
Slow down top target McLaurin
The Commanders don’t have an explosive offense, but they do have one of the game’s best wide receivers in Terry McLaurin. Dallas has done an admirable job of limiting his damage over the last few seasons, however, in the final game last year, McLaurin did have 74 yards and a score. That was the fifth year wide receiver’s best output in the last six games versus the Cowboys.
McLaurin is currently 54 yards shy of his fourth straight 1,000-yard campaign, so the Commanders could be looking to go his way often to help him secure the milestone. With fellow wide receiver Curtis Samuel – who had a 100-yard game in the first meeting – questionable to play, McLaurin could see even more targets. He already leads the Washington offense in catches, targets, and yards, so McLaurin needs to be the focus of Dan Quinn’s passing defense.
If Dallas is able to keep the top receiving threat of the Commanders in check, they will greatly increase their odds of walking away with a win.
Be prepared for the kitchen sink
The Commanders aren’t playing for a playoff spot in Week 18, but they are competing for jobs. There are rumors that head coach Ron Rivera and members of his staff won’t be retained at the end of the year and this is their last chance to make the case that they should stay.
With nothing to lose, expect the Commanders to throw everything they’ve got at the Cowboys. McCarthy needs to reiterate to his team that they must be prepared for trick plays, a coach that will go for it on fourth down, and to watch out for fakes on special teams. Rivera got the nickname ‘Riverboat Ron’ a few years back so it’s in his nature to be aggressive. The Cowboys need to be on high alert in this game.
Nothing lifts the spirits in Washington more than beating the Cowboys and Rivera can help his cause by beating a rival and knocking them from the top spot in the division.
Do you think the Cowboys will walk away with the division in Week 18? Share your predictions with Ben on Twitter @BenGrimaldi.
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