DALLAS — The Dallas Cowboys just got through the easiest part of their schedule and now things get very interesting over the regular season’s final month. After winning four straight to get to 9-3, the hardest stretch of their 2023 slate comes over the last five games of the season.
November was a fun month for the Cowboys, with the team scoring at least 33 points in each game while putting up at least 40 points in three of their last four. The offense is clicking, quarterback Dak Prescott is playing like an MVP, and the defense has continued to create turnovers.
However, the final third of the season will determine the Cowboys’ fate, and that begins a chance to tie the Philadelphia Eagles for the NFC East lead in Week 14 on Sunday. The Cowboys have put themselves in position to make some noise, but the season is about to get real.
Here’s a look at where the Cowboys stand heading into the final five games:
The schedule is daunting
Detractors point to Dallas beating mostly bad teams to get their nine wins, but that will not be an issue down the stretch. The final five games include three teams with at least nine wins on their ledger, three against current division leaders, another contest against a team who’s fighting for their playoff lives and a road finale against a rival.
The harrowing stretch starts with the Eagles to end their three-game homestand and a win means the teams are tied in the standings heading into the final month of the season. Beat the Eagles and the Cowboys can put to bed the biggest gripe against them, that they can’t defeat good teams.
Things don’t get much easier after Week 14, however, as the Cowboys will play back-to-back road games against the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins. The teams and weather elements bring distinct challenges to both contests and the Cowboys will need to find a way to come away with at least one win against the AFC East combatants.
The Bills will be desperate as their playoff chances will be on the line and they are a better team than their 6-6 record suggests. Division-leading Miami, meanwhile, presents a major challenge, as they can tax Dallas’ defense with their speed on the offensive side of the ball.
Another tough game awaits the Cowboys when they return home as they suit up for a matchup with the upstart Detroit Lions. These aren’t the same old Lions and they’re fighting for the top seed in the NFC and could have the NFC North title sewed up by the time this game kicks off.
A second go-around against the Commanders will be the final game on the schedule, and there could be a lot on the line for the Cowboys depending on how the next few weeks shake out. Playing a hated rival to finish the season when playoff seeding is on the line isn’t an easy task.
It’s a tough road for the Cowboys down the stretch, but it’s all in front of them if they want to make it a special year.
Best offense in the league
Before the bye week, the Cowboys had a winning record, but their offense wasn’t playing anything like they have in the last six games. During this stretch, the offense scored 40 points at least four times, and added a 33-point outing. The rest of the NFL combined during the last six weeks has scored 40 points just twice.
The incorporation of more pre-snap motion, shifting and targeting playmakers, and throwing the ball down the field are elements of the offense that have significantly impacted the unit’s upswing. Head coach and play-caller Mike McCarthy deserves credit for adjusting during the season to find the right fit for his offense and for his quarterback.
As for Prescott, he is playing the best football of his career and leads the league in touchdown passes with 26, while also limiting his turnovers, with just six interceptions.
McCarthy and Prescott are firmly in control, and the tweaks in the offense are also getting wide receiver CeeDee Lamb more involved. Lamb is second in receiving yards, second in first down receptions, third in catches, and tied for fifth in receiving scores among wideouts.
Behind their hottest stretch of football this year, the Cowboys now lead the league in points per game and look like the best offense in the NFL, with MVP-candidate Prescott reaching a new level.
The ever-present penalties problem
The Cowboys have won nine games, and they have done so despite being one of the most penalized teams in the league. In last week’s win, McCarthy’s team committed nine penalties for 127 yards, but still won in part because the Seattle Seahawks had 10 infractions for 130 yards.
That isn’t luck that the Cowboys can count on every week, and being the second most penalized team in the league at 90 through 12 games is a problem. In the final five games, the Cowboys will face four teams who are near the bottom third of the league in penalties called against them. Only the Bills are near the Cowboys in the dubious category, ranking fifth with 84 infractions.
Dallas has won every game they’ve played without having more than five penalties or under 50 yards lost due to penalties, going 6-0. In their three losses, the team has averaged close to 10 mistakes per game, averaging over 83 penalties yards lost.
The team needs to be more disciplined down the stretch to beat better opponents who are not committing as many penalties. These are the hidden yardage totals that can cost the Cowboys games if they don’t clean up their play.
Playoff seeding on the line
The Cowboys have a lot to play for during the holiday season. Playoff seeding will be on the line in the last five weeks, even if the schedule makes it difficult to envision the team finishing as strong as they’ve been playing.
However, if the Cowboys keep up their high level of play, they will be in the hunt for an NFC East title, and possibly the No. 1 seed in the conference. Beating the Eagles this week would give Dallas a brief edge, but the remaining schedules of both teams will make it likely that Philadelphia still wins the division.
The Eagles don’t play a team with a winning record in their final four games, so they have the easiest path to an NFC East title due to a better conference record. Dallas can only look back and rue their Week 3 loss in the desert for that bit of bad news.
To earn the top seed and a bye, it would likely take an undefeated month for the Cowboys down the stretch, which is asking a lot. The rest of the equation would be out of their control. Beating the Lions in late December would give the Cowboys an edge in the head-to-head fight for the top spot, but the San Francisco 49ers and Eagles would also need to lose somewhere in the final few weeks. The 49ers could falter with games against the Seahawks, Baltimore Ravens, or Los Angeles Rams, but those are all home games.
The most probable outcome for the Cowboys is the fifth seed as a double-digit game winner, likely playing on the road for the entire playoffs, a scenario that ultimately haunted them last season.
Do you think the Cowboys are set up for playoff success? Share your thoughts with Ben on Twitter @BenGrimaldi.
