Coaching:
After six seasons with Rex Ryan at the helm, the last three of which resulted in an 18-30 combined record, the Jets decided to clean house. Ryan and general manager John Idzik were jettisoned, and Idzik was replaced by former Texans Director of College Scouting Mike Maccagnan. Maccagnan's first order of business was to hire former Arizona Cardinals defensive coordinator (and Cowboys secondary coach) Todd Bowles to be New York's new coach. The early returns are good; after years under the mercurial Ryan and the marginally competent Idzik, Bowles and Maccagnan have begun to reshape the team; the 2015 Jets are a big, imposing, physical bunch that, like Bowles, are even-keeled and quietly confident in the face of adversity.
Offense:
One of Bowles's first coaching moves was to lure veteran offensive mastermind (and former Cowboys head coach) Chan Gailey out of retirement. Gaily came off the couch, lost his starting quarterback for the season, and managed to build one of the league's most curiously dangerous offenses. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is having a career season; RB Chris Ivory has been a revelation; and WR Brandon Marshall is putting up what could end up being the most dominant receiving numbers in franchise history. As we head into December, the Jets offense is ranked ninth overall (371 yards a game) and10th in scoring (25.0 points per).
Although Gailey's offenses have always been balanced, they are predicated on the run, featuring a long line of backs from Jerome Bettis to Emmit Smith to Fred Jackson. With the Jets, it's Chris Ivory. After splitting carries with Bilal Powell and Chris Johnson in his first two seasons in New York, Ivory has established career highs in carries (217), rushing yards (914), and touchdowns, with seven. Although he's clearly the team's lead dog, the Jets try to keep his carries in the low 20s; Ivory will be spelled by former Patriot Stevan Ridley and Powell, who has become a dangerous multiple threat, adding 35 receptions (a nice 8.6 YPA) to his 57 carries.
Gaily will move Powell all over the formation, even splitting him out wide. This helps to create space for the Jets' dynamic receiving duo, Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker. Both are long (6'4" and 6'3", respectively), physical receivers capable of winning one-on-one matchups with regularity. The offensive coaching staff works to free Marshall, who boasts rare physical traits, but both men will line up all across the formation to exploit potential mismatches. Small wonder that the Cowboys wanted to become more physical at slot cornerback this week…
The man distributing the ball to these weapons is journeyman signal caller Ryan Fitzpatrick, who is enjoying a career renaissance in 2015. On the season, he has completed 60 percent of his passes, thrown for 3,129 yards, and generated 27 total touchdowns against only 12 turnovers. One of the ways Gailey has managed Fitzpatrick is to limit his high-risk throws; to go with his career-high completion percentage is a yards per attempt figure of 7.03, which is 22nd in the NFL. Not surprisingly, the Jets are 23rd in the league in explosive passing plays, which gives the Cowboys defense one fewer thing to worry about.
Defense:
The Jets' defensive coordinator, Kacy Rodgers, is another former Cowboys coach; Bowles and Rodgers were defensive position coaches in Dallas from 2005-07 and then accompanied Tony Sparano to Miami, where they coached together from 2008-11. In New York, they have implemented multiple defense, switching back and forth between 3-4 and 4-3 alignments depending on opponent and personnel.
More importantly, they play an aggressive scheme that features a wide variety of blitzes. Last year in Arizona, Bowles blitzes as often as any defensive coordinator in the game, and he and Rodgers have brought this tendency to New York. Bowles uses blitzes to force a QB play fast and without clarity; with this in mind, many of the Jets' blitzes attack right up the middle, in the quarterback's face. Given the way Matt Cassel has responded to pressure (last week's end zone interception was the result of a hurried throw with a free blitzer bearing down on him), we should expect to see New York dialing up pressure early and often.
Bowles can bring the heat because he has the luxury of a secondary talented enough to cover man-to-man long enough for his blitzes to get home. The marquee name, of course, is Darrelle Revis, who we should expect to see lined up over Dez Bryant for most of the game on Saturday. Number two corner Antonio Cromartie, who Bowles brought with him from Arizona, is one of the league's better matchup players, and nickel corner Buster Skrine is a vastly under-appreciated force. In addition, super-talented 2013 first rounder Dee Milliner has recovered from injury and is rounding into shape.
As deep as it is, the Jets' secondary might not measure up to the defensive line, which, like Carolina's, features a slew of high draft picks: 2011 first rounder Muhammad Wilkerson; 2013 number one Sheldon Richardson; and the consensus top defensive player in the 2015 draft, Leonard Williams. Although Wilkerson is the best of the bunch, all boast a scary combination of quickness and power; the game's best matchup will be the Dallas OL versus the Jets DL. Travis Frederick, in particular, will have his hands full; New York's 350 lb. nose tackle Damon Harrison is an immovable object in the middle.
Despite all the talent in the D-line and secondary, the Jets' defensive glue is veteran linebacker David Harris. The former Michigan product makes all the defensive calls and puts the other players in position. Plus, he makes more than his share of plays; Harris leads the Jets in tackles with 102 and has 2.5 sacks, two forced fumbles and three passes defensed. Due in no small part to Harris's efforts, the Jets are ranked No. 5 in total defense and No. 1 against the run. To emerge victorious, the Cowboys will need to win two of the three phases. They better win against the Jets' offense, because they are not likely to find success against their formidable "D."
Special Teams:
This is the phase of the game where the Cowboys have a clear advantage. The Jets special teams have struggled mightily all season; Gang Green is 28th in the NFL in punt coverage, 16th in kickoff coverage, 18th in punt returns, and 28th in kickoff returns. According to ESPN's Stats & Information department, they rank 30th overall. Contributing to that ranking is the fact that New York has allowed four opposing touchdowns on special teams this season, the most recent being an 80-yard punt return to the Giants' Dwayne Harris in which they were in utter disarray. If they Cowboys are to win, they will need to exploit whatever special teams advantage they have; this would be a good game for Lucky Whitehead to reel off a couple of sizeable returns.
Health: The Cowboys will face off against a relatively healthy team. After thirteen games, according to ManGamesLost.com, the Jets are just above the middle of the pack in terms of injuries; they are 12th in the league in games lost to injury as well as 12th in the value of the players lost (to put that into perspective, the Cowboys are 21st and 11th, respectively). The bad news for Gang Green Nation is that the Jets currently have seven players on injured reserve; the good news is that only one of them, OG Colon, was expected to be a starter. Aside from those men out for the season, they are relatively healthy; the only player not a full participant in practice has been third-team WR Jeremy Kerley.
Outlook:
The Jets are 8-5 and, after a nasty 1-4 stretch in the middle of the season, have won three straight games and appear to be rounding into shape for the home stretch. Their highly physical offense will test an undersized Cowboys front seven as the game progresses. That said, the Jets' bread and butter is the defense; with the possible exception of Carolina, this will be the most complete defense the Cowboys have faced all season. Given Dallas' recent struggles, it's hard to imagine that Matt Cassel and Company will move the ball enough to keep the game close. Unless the Cowboys catch a few breaks, generate a couple of big plays on special teams, or Fitzpatrick struggles mightily—a couple of timely interceptions would certainly help—it's hard to imagine that they can match up with one of this season's emerging bullies.
For more on the Cowboys, be sure to follow Shawn on Twitter @rabblerousr.
