5. Zero top twelve rush defenses
In the Cowboys final six games, they won't face a defense that is in the top 12 statistically in yards allowed per rushing attempt. The best run defense they'll face is Philadelphia, ranked 13th in the league and at this moment allowing four yards per carry. A big opportunity awaits the Cowboys coming off of this bye week as they get to face the New York Giants and their disastrous defense that has allowed 27+ points to their last four opponents, including three different running backs going for 128+ individually against them (yeah, Murray's day was only the third best total against the Giants in the last month).
4. First it giveth, then it taketh away
The Dallas Cowboys don't play one single team with a positive turnover margin in the their final six weeks. You might say "Hey Mike, the Cowboys don't have a positive turnover margin". OK, that's actually true (-1 on the season), but you have to factor in the incredible amount of fumbles the Cowboys have committed this season (10, tied for first in the NFL). Fumbles are much flukier than, say, interceptions. The Bears, Redskins and Eagles are at least -5 in turnovers on the season. Another fun stat is that the Cowboys don't play one single defense in the top 10 in sacks and also only play one quarterback in the top 10 of Pro Football Focus' quarterback rating (Luck).
3. Mark Sanchez
When you factor in sacks and interceptions with the other routine numbers that we measure quarterbacks by, Mark Sanchez was the worst starting quarterback in football from 2009-2012 (that stat is called adjusted net yards per pass attempt and it was used by the incredible fivethirtyeight.com). Nick Foles wasn't playing great by his standards that he set just last season and it's difficult to assume whether Foles just wasn't that good to begin with, or if the league just caught on. I assume it's a 40/60 split somewhere in there. Chip Kelly might have found the magical quarterback cheat code, but I'll refuse to believe that Sanchez can replicate the same success Nick Foles was having once NFL defensive coordinators get a book on him. Sanchez will get worse as the weeks progress, and there's not a doubt in my mind that he'll end up costing the Eagles multiple games. Which games? Well, it would be nice if it were the Dallas game. But first, we'd need his defense/special teams to stop playing out of this world.
2. Strength of schedule
These are the seven teams that are fighting for the remaining five NFC playoff spots ranked by win percentage:
1. ARZ - .889%
2. DET - .778% *better conference record than PHI
3. PHI - .778%
4. DAL - .700%
5. SEA - .667% *better conference record than GB
6. GB - .667%
7. SF - .556%
*Saints (or the NFC south winner) will get in as a division winner at the four spot most likely.
In terms of remaining strength of schedule and home vs. away games….
1. SEA- .667% 3H/4A
2. ARZ- .571% 3H/4A
3. GB- .539% 4H/3A
4. DAL- .537% 2H/4A
5. PHI- .523% 3H/4A
6. DET- .501% 4H/3A
7. SF- .492% 4H/3A
These seven teams will play each other 11 times over the next 7 weeks.
If you take Seattle's season finale against the Rams out of the equation, their remaining opponents are 39-15 on the season equaling a .722 win percentage.
1. Road Games Against Winning Teams
This is a list of how many road games against winning teams remain for the seven NFC teams fighting for the final five spots:
Cowboys 1 (@PHI)
Arizona 1 (@SEA)
Green Bay 1 (@BUF)
San Francisco 1 (@SEA)
Detroit 2 (@ARZ @NE)
Philadelphia 2 (@GB @DAL)
Seattle 4 (@KC @ARZ @SF @PHI)
When you start to determine which team has the easiest road down the stretch, there's no doubt it's the 49ers. They have the weakest SOS and only have to play one winning team on the road (SEA). The problem with the 49ers is that they're already two wins behind the Cowboys and have zero games against the other wildcard teams that they'd be chasing (PHI, DAL, DET, GB). Meaning, they'd have to play at a +2 clip, and despite their SOS being soft it's a bit skewed by having the winless Raiders thrown in. I don't think the 49ers make it. If they had another week or two at the end of the season I'd vote them in.
In theory, Detroit should be a lock with four straight sub .500 teams on the schedule following their back-to-back road games at Arizona and New England. But, if the Lions lose both games at Arizona and at New England and they start spiraling, I wouldn't overlook the possibility of Chicago or Minnesota stinging their division rival and keeping them from that 10-win plateau. After all, the Lions' last three wins were all by four points or less. Their defense has been superb, but we've seen this before when teams get a second crack at a perceived "stout defense". It would be SO Lions to not make the playoffs this season. If I had to put money on it, I'd bet against them winning the North, but you'll just have to keep reading to see if they're in the playoff picture.
Philadelphia's main problem is the hard crash landing that Mark Sanchez is going to have once teams get some tape on him. If you're a Cowboys fan, you're watching very closely their remaining games against Tennessee, Washington and the New York Giants, because those games have zero playoff implications if a win for the opposing team were to happen. If you're the Cowboys, you hold your own fate in your hands. Just beat Philadelphia twice and that makes everything else much more simple. In the end, I think the Eagles make it despite the hard fall that Sanchez is about to take.
The Packers would be my pick to win the NFC North at this moment. One road game against a winning team left, and it's 5-4 Buffalo. That barely qualifies. Green Bay has four what should be definite wins on the schedule in MIN, ATL, BUF and TB. Their SOS is middle of the pack, but they're the only team with an advantage in home games remaining that actually mean something. Four games at Lambeau in late November/early December is completely different from four games at Ford Stadium, or whatever they call that thing in Detroit. It's also been my assumption that Eddie Lacy has been kept on a snaps leash (has had one game of over 14 carries) so that he'll be fresh when December rolls around and the frozen tundra requires a giant stud running back to carry the ball 25+ times.
I hesitate to speak on the likelihood of the Arizona Cardinals hanging on to their playoff position until I see them play the Lions this weekend with Drew Stanton, but I feel comfortable banking on them making the tournament. They only have to win two of their final seven games with matchups against Atlanta and St. Louis on the docket. Arizona wins the West and then gets bounced with the quickness.
There's no way Seattle survives this. They start out at the Chiefs next week against a defense that hasn't allowed 13+ points in a month. Their next six weeks looks like this: @KC, ARZ, @SF, @PHI, SF, @ARZ. Just incredible. I have the Seahawks missing the playoffs.
Here are my projections. These are very scientific. Lots of sticky notes.
1. Arizona - 12-4 (10-2 in the conference wins tiebreaker over GB)
2. Green Bay - 12-4 (9-3 in conference)
3. Dallas - 11-5 (winning the PHI game at home on Thanksgiving but losing @PHI and IND, 8-4 in conference. Both DAL and PHI 4-2 in division and split the season series so it goes to conference)
4. New Orleans - 8-8 or who cares this is dumb
5. Philadelphia - 11-5 (7-5 in conference loses the tiebreaker with Dallas because of a loss at Washington week 16)
6. Detroit - 10-6
*Seattle and San Francisco finish at 9-7 and miss the playoffs.
