The question for the Mavs right now is, what do they imagine themselves to be doing? Are they building for next year, or for slightly further away? On the one hand, they have Dirk Nowitzki in what may be his last year in the league, on the other they have Harrison Barnes, and hopefully soon Nerlens Noel, as young guys with long contracts. That would give them a little time to build.
This particularly matters when one considers their cap situation. If they are going to make a big free agent splash this offseason, they’ll have to improve it quickly. With $94 million-plus in committed money next year, they can’t sign anyone good. That might be for the best, giving Barnes a chance to continue to develop, and Nerlens and Seth Curry maybe their first real chances. Then, depending on what happens with Nerlens and Dirk, not to mention whether they unload anybody during the season, they may be able to make a move next offseason with a better established core and a clearer sense of what they have.
Alternatively, it’s quite clear who they’d want to get rid of if they either wanted to get some cap space or else pick up some interesting pieces. Wes Matthews has been perfectly acceptable, but won’t be part of their future in a long-term way, and Dwight Powell hasn’t exactly developed as hoped. The Mavs are typically much better at using mid-level guys as trade pieces than they are at making free agent noise, but it’s hard to imagine anyone wants to pay those guys what the Mavs are paying them. That, however, would also change in the 2019 offseason when Matthews, who is more or less a lock to pick up his $18.6 million player option, is an expiring contract. Powell, depending on his option choices, might be as well.
If I’m the Mavericks, what I would do is let it play out. Since they didn’t go the one-year contract route this last offseason, for the first time in a long time, they don’t have to make many decisions soon besides whether to sign Nerlens Noel, and for how much. They aren’t going to compete with the Cavs and Warriors no matter what they do, and none of the guys they might trade currently have much value. If they can accept that, next year might be a fun year, and a sometimes competitive year. Without it having to be a contending year or even a playoff berth year, they will emerge with a clearer sense of who they are and give some of their guys a chance to play themselves into trade value. That’s probably the best that can be hoped for, but it won’t be an easy thing for the front office to accept.
