DALLAS — The Dallas Mavericks entered the 2023-2024 season in the court of public perception.
Their offseason was more subdued than that of their Southwest Division competition and that was after they had experienced the black mark of tanking to retain their first-round draft pick instead of fighting for a spot in the play-in tournament one season after Luka Doncic had led them to the Western Conference Finals.
Swallowing the embarrassment of missing the playoffs despite bringing Kyrie Irving to the fold to tag team with Doncic, Dallas wasn’t the team with the number-one pick, that went to interstate rival San Antonio. They didn’t add the biggest free agents in the division, they went to their other state rival Houston.
Even so, Dallas enters the second-half of the 2023-2024 season ahead of each of their Texas rivals and a game back of the New Orleans Pelicans in the Southwest division. Dallas is back fighting for a guaranteed playoff spot in a congested conference thanks to a combination of star power, sneaky free agent signings and an infusion of youth on their roster.
With Doncic, the sky is the limit. However, injuries and inconsistency have plagued Dallas in the first half to risk them spinning their wheels again this season.
Rotation anchors
The playoff chances for Dallas begin and end with their two superstars. Outside of the 16 games missed due to various injuries, there isn’t much to gripe over for Kyrie Irving’s second year with the Mavs.
Irving is performing over his career averages at a near 26 PPG scoring clip while his three-point accuracy is on pace to set a career-high. He has also been an exceptional teammate from all accounts, particularly with the young Dallas guards.
Irving has both shown chemistry with Doncic while they share the court, as well as the aggressive scoring from his Cleveland and Brooklyn days. When the Mavs traded for Irving, the ceiling was seeing a continuation of one of the best 4th quarter closers of his generation, and the 31 year-old has shown that he has plenty left.
While Irving missed most of December, he has averaged more than 30 points in the games since his return, including two 40+ efforts. The Mavs' chances at a deep playoff run are substantially higher if Irving can make it to the end of the season maintaining his current pace.
Doncic’s age 24 season sees him at a career-high averages in scoring (33.6), assists (9.1), steals (1.4), and three-point shooting (38%). His defensive effort has also been noticeably better. If his ankle issues settle, an All-Star start for Doncic in a few weeks time is all but assured, and the only question for the sixth-year guard is will the Mavs win enough for him to attain serious MVP consideration.
Bench
Is it the number change? Tim Hardaway Jr. is in the midst of a career renaissance in his eleventh season, scoring at the highest rate since he was a New York Knick in 2018. THJ has been a mainstay in the rotation while Doncic and Irving have missed chunks of the season.
While he is in-line with his Dallas career averages in minutes, Hardaway has been noticeably aggressive in shooting when the opportunity presents itself, and he has stepped up his game when Irving or Doncic need a spell.
Grant Williams, however, was the heralded offseason signing to replace Dorian Finney-Smith’s perimeter defense, three-point shooting, and overall team vibe facilitator. While Williams started out scorching, the load of the task brought Williams down to his career averages about a month in.
While he was penciled in for 30-plus minutes to start the season, the summer signings of Derrick Jones Jr. and Dante Exum to fill out the depth chart blossomed into valuable rotation roles that, coinciding with a regression in play, saw Williams’ minutes average dip significantly.
While Exum was known as a defensive specialist, he has developed a deep shot that has him at 45% to date, and Jones Jr. has been efficient and the athletic finisher the Mavs have craved for years to pair with Doncic. They are each contributing about ten points a night for Dallas, leaving Williams, Seth Curry, and the young duo of Josh Green and Jaden Hardy fighting for scraps.
The position flexibility of the Dallas forwards has allowed the Mavs to mitigate the absence of Maxi Kleber for the majority of the season. Dallas has seen Kleber in the frontcourt for only seven games this season, returning to the rotation against New Orleans for the first time since early November.
Richaun Holmes came into the season expected to receive heavy minutes, but the arrival of Dereck Lively has essentially made him an unhappy spectator. Holmes and Markief Morris have been largely relegated to garbage time.
With DJJ and Exum bearing fruit, it becomes a real possibility for Williams to be moved in an effort to fortify the rotation. The Mavs may not want to sell low on the 3 and D specialist considering his contract length, but for the type of move that Dallas needs to make to shore up their frontcourt, opposing front offices will likely be targeting a combination of Green, Hardy and salary cap filler.
Hardaway’s resurgence and the erasure of Pascal Siakam on the trade market may make Dallas apt to keep him, so the domino falls to the next big cap number. A trade of one of the aforementioned players may open more time for the 25-year-old Williams, but his former role may be taken by Exum regardless.
Curry returned for his third stint with Dallas to be an offensive specialist, but has seen his playing time essentially cut in half from his previous stints in Maverick blue, and his output is the lowest since he worked his way up from the former D-league. Curry seems destined to continue on as a bottom of the rotation shooter brought in for intermittent heat checks.
The free agent signings for the Mav bench have been a success for the front office, it just wasn’t the ones we expected and that has the team on the market for help ahead of the February trade deadline.
Rookies
On the player development side, the tank job paid off handsomely with the selection of center Dereck Lively II, who has quickly risen the ranks as one of the best draft picks that the Mavs have made in many years.
The 19 year-old has allowed Dallas to move away from needing to absorb a bloated contract like the much-rumored Clint Capela target into its salary cap space while simultaneously allowing the gentle lowering of Dwight Powell’s rotation minutes.
While Lively’s numbers don’t jump off the stat sheet, he has given the Mavericks countless second chances down low, holds his own defensively with the league’s bigs, and puts in a bucket or two when Doncic finds him. Seeing Lively acclimate so quickly has been a huge driver for their season’s fortunes and getting healthy minutes from him will only improve Dallas’ chance.
Olivier-Maxence Prosper, their other 2023 draft pick, is essentially blocked on the depth chart and has spent his year getting experience with the Texas Legends, where he has averaged 20.4 points and 8.4 rebounds in game action. Lively’s first-half alone gives the front office an A+ grade for the draft.
Coaching
While Jason Kidd has continued to be combative at times with the media, his players have largely continued to respond favorably to the third-year coach. Dallas has been wrecked by injuries to key contributors for the majority of the first-half and the team has largely over-performed heading into January, all things considered.
Having players like Doncic and Irving on the roster necessitates clear upward movement year-to-year, and Dallas missed the playoffs entirely last season. Kidd has navigated the injuries and has the Mavericks angling to become contenders as they get back to full-strength.
A caveat for thought: Dallas has new ownership that inherited their front office, and the first hot seat in these timelines is usually the head coach which means Kidd will have to deliver on real growth this season or risk the new ownership looking to make their mark.
Do you believe the Mavericks will reach their potential in the season’s second half? Share your thoughts with Irvin on Twitter @Twittirv.
