DALLAS — After one of the best late-season surges in team history, the Dallas Mavericks will begin their 25th playoff run on the road, with Game 1 emanating from Los Angeles in the premier Sunday matinee time slot.
Dallas will be hoping that the third first round meeting against the Clippers in the last five seasons during the Luka Doncic era will see them finally vanquish the star-heavy roster from out West. To do so, they will need to extinguish the collection of mid 2010’s All-Star veterans that have teamed up in search of the other L.A franchise’s first championship.
Dallas fell to the Clippers in six games to conclude their 2019-2020 season in the The Bubble. It was Doncic’s second season in the NBA and the then 21-year old was halted in one of the most unusual playoff tournaments in league history. One year later, the only thing that changed was Dallas was able to push Los Angeles to a seventh game before succumbing to the Clippers again.
The roster for the Mavericks has been completely transformed since their last playoff meeting in 2021, and so has the coaching staff. Even the primary owner is different in Dallas! But maybe the biggest change comes from Doncic himself. Three years since a second consecutive gut-wrenching playoff loss to Los Angeles, Doncic is coming off the best regular season in Dallas Mavericks history.
Doncic also has a history of leveling up in the postseason. The MVP candidate’s playoff resume over five career series boasts averages of 32 points, 9.2 rebounds, and 6 assists per game. It is safe to assume that those numbers will once again rise with the elevated intensity of winning or going home.
Doncic’s individual game is at a point where now-minority owner Mark Cuban has openly wondered if he’s already the greatest Maverick ever. To continue building his case, Doncic and these Mavs will need to legitimately challenge for the franchise’s second championship before anyone will even begin to believe that Dirk Nowitzski is close to being unseated.
Luka has a long career ahead of him to put his placement into historical context, but for now, Dallas enters the 2024 playoffs with the best roster top to bottom of Doncic’s six-year career.
Carryovers Mavericks from the last Clippers series – Tim Hardaway, Maxi Kleber, and Dwight Powell – have all seen their roles diminish since, and while Josh Green was a rookie at the time, his injuries and streaky play this year have also pushed him down the depth chart. The refortified lineup will translate into a heavy minutes rotation of Derrick Jones Jr., Dante Exum, P.J Washington, and Daniel Gafford to supplement Doncic, with his biggest reinforcement coming by way of certified playoff assassin Kyrie Irving.
The Mavs late-season run of 16 wins in their last 18 competitive games saw them rely heavily on the Doncic-Irving-Jones Jr- Washington, Gafford lineup, and Gafford will tag team with rookie center Dereck Lively II, a near duplicated version of himself, though the youngster is returning from injury.
The elevated inside attack for Dallas will add a new layer to this playoff rivalry, with the Mavericks effectively being the new Lob City thanks to the rim running athletes that have been put in place for Luka and Kyrie to feed to bring back visions of Chris Paul and Blake Griffin from a generation ago for the Clippers.
If these Clippers bite on the easy points at the rim early, Doncic and Irving will have their choice of pulling up or attacking the rim themselves. The Maverick offense will be targeting aging veteran James Harden mercilessly. Either Dallas backcourt superstar can beat Harden to the rim, but they will need to contend with the fellow stars Paul George and Kawhi Leonard’s perimeter defense, or find the open man if Harden switches out with them.
On the other side of the court is the latest iteration of the Leonard-George team-up that shook up the Western Conference half a decade ago, now with Harden as a third option. While the duo has been hampered by injuries in their time together, L.A enjoyed a renaissance season for their superstars this year. George shot 41% from three from the year and 90% from the free throw line while playing in the highest number of games in a season in his entire Clippers career since a trade there in 2019.
Leonard was named an All-Star, played the most games in a season since his age 25 season in San Antonio, and had the best shooting season in over a decade. Harden, meanwhile, found his way to the team over the offseason, and has become the facilitator in an offense that features Leonard and George as primary scorers. Harden is the assists leader for the team, but this is mostly an isolation offense.
Harden’s first season in Los Angeles finished with his lowest scoring output since his Thunder sixth man days a decade ago, and he will be motivated to exorcise the ghosts of playoffs past, but will have to shrug off some ugly shooting performances down the stretch for Los Angeles.
The rest of the heavy playoff minutes for L.A will be spread between former MVP Russell Westbrook who is now in a reduced role at 35-years old, Terance Mann, and Norman Powell at the guard spots, with Ivica Zubac fortifying the front-court.
While Dallas lost out on the 4th seed and home-court advantage to the Clippers by a single game, it may not matter. Doncic has reveled in the spotlight, showing out against the top clubs regardless of arena. The Mavs went 25-16 on the road this season, matching their record at home.
From the coaching aspect, former Mavericks guard Ty Lue has quietly placed himself as one of the most respected coaches in the league in a hot seat media market, while Jason Kidd has escaped the ire of fans with a successful regular season. They have both shown an ability to deal with big personalities, and have the trust of their players, which trumps armchair coaching.
In what looks like one of the best first-round matchups that the league has to offer this year, the burden now falls on the superstars on both sides. Where the Clippers will look to avoid a duel with father time for one more run, Irving aims to remind the league of his place amongst the elite guards, and Doncic has the chance to prove that he’s undeniable when it matters most.
Do you think the Mavericks will get over the hump against the Clippers in round one? Share your predictions with Irvin on Twitter @Twittirv.
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