DALLAS — Records are made to be broken.
And when they are – especially ones like Kareem Abdul-Jabbar's NBA scoring record that stood for nearly 40 years – those players deserve their flowers. So, first and foremost: Congratulations to LeBron James.
Many in NBA circles – including Lakers great Ervin "Magic" Johnson – have said they didn't believe anyone would ever cross the 38,000-point threshold ever again, let alone unseat the captain on the mountain top.
When James hit the fadeaway just as the third quarter came to a close against the Oklahoma City Thunder, the game was stopped for a well-deserved ceremonious bow to who many – including myself – consider the G.O.A.T. (leave that for another barbershop talk).
But, like mentioned previously: Records are made to be broken, like it or not. Someone will come along who, like James did, will unseat wherever James lands when he's done. Who will it be and how long will it take? That is the golden question.
The key here is longevity, health and elite performance. Who among the talented upcoming players – born or not (James was born eight months after Kareem passed Wilt Chamberlain in 1984) – can stay healthy and play long enough to amass such an seemingly insurmountable achievement?
Well, for starters, there's a 23-year-old Slovenian on the Dallas Mavericks that might have a chance to take a crack at it.
Luka Doncic has shot out to a quick start in his NBA career, scoring 8,531 points in his first 311 games. At nearly the same point in James' career, he was just a tad behind Doncic's pace: James scored 8,439 points in his first four seasons (316 games).
Whether or not Doncic can dethrone "King James" is determined on two things:
- Where does James finish his career on all-time scoring list when he retires?
- How much of a gap does that leave Doncic? Can he catch James?
How many points will LeBron finish with?
Let's look at the first point. There are a few more milestone's James could easily chase, should he choose. There is the 40,000-point mark.
As fate would have it, James – who also leads the NBA in games played and points scored on Christmas Day – is actually on pace to become the NBA's first-ever 40,000-point scorer near ... you guessed it: Christmas Day of next season.
James has also mentioned the dream of playing in an NBA game with his son, Bronny James. Bronny James is a senior in high school, which would make him eligible for the NBA Draft going into the 2024-25 season.
The most NBA seasons ever played is 22, set by Vince Carter. James is currently at 20 and putting up, amazingly, the best numbers of his career. The 2024-25 season would tie this all-time mark, becoming James' 22nd in the league.
For sake of argument, we'll assume James plays 22 seasons and retires. Since joining the Lakers in 2018, James has played anywhere between 45 and 67 games. We'll split the difference and say over this course he plays 60 per year. That leaves him at 15 more this season and two more full seasons of 60 games each. We mentioned before that James is playing some of the best basketball of his career, averaging over 30 points per game these past two seasons. But, every NBA great in the history of the game regresses at some point: Abdul-Jabbar scored 17, 14 and 10 points per game his final three seasons, Kobe Bryant scored 17 points per game in his final season and so on. We'll say over this course of the remaining 135 hypothetical games, James "regresses" to an extremely respectable 20 points per game in seasons 21 and 22.
So, here we go: James finishes his career in our made-up scenario with 41,090 points.
How much does Luka need to score?
Part two: Can Luka catch LeBron? In order to do so, he needs to stay healthy and play at his elite level for a long, long time.
Remember, Doncic has 8,531 points through four-and-a-half seasons. He has averaged 66 games per year at this point, so that leaves approximately 19 more games, dropping 33 a night this year. He would finish with 9,158 points at the conclusion of the 2022-23 season. So, Doncic would need 31,932 points (again, hypothetically) to go dethrone James on the mountaintop.
Averaging 25 points per game with 66 appearances a year, it would take Doncic 19 more seasons and some change (19.35), putting him at basically 25 total for his career and playing still at 43 years old. Averaging 27 points per game with 66 appearances a year, it would take Doncic basically 18 more seasons (17.91). Michael Jordan leads the NBA in career points per game (30.1), and if Luka were to play at that level, with 66 appearances per year, he'd surpass 41,090 points in 16 more seasons, which would bring Doncic to 21 seasons played.
If it's not clear, the more games Doncic plays per year, the better. The season total need drops with more games played per season, obviously.
Longevity is key, which is why James' achievement is so incredibly impressive.
Maybe one day we'll see James handing the torch to Doncic. Maybe the next scoring leader isn't even born yet.
As avid a fan James is of Doncic, however, it would certainly be a sight to behold. Can Doncic do it? He certainly has the talent. But will he play long enough and stay healthy for that matter? Doncic has already battled numerous ankle and leg injuries in his career, which have sidelined him for weeks at a time.
The ball is in his court.
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