It was a relatively mild summer in Dallas, Texas in 2014. It was still hot compared to most places, but not as persistently hot as many are used to in the Lone Star State. According to weatherspark.com, it appears there were just nine or ten days in Dallas that registered a high temperature over 100 degrees. This is compared to data from the National Weather Service that says the average year has 18 days that hit 100 degrees, but that since 2008, Dallas has seen no fewer than 20 daysof 100-degree temperatures, peaking at 71 in 2011.
The heat that has also been missing from the area is the kind the pitchers for the Texas Rangers throw. In 2014, the Rangers' pitching staff as a group has the 27th-lowest average fastball velocity in baseball at 91.3 MPH, according to Fangraphs' PitchF/X data. Coincidentally, this is a far cry from the Rangers' peak heat in 2011, when their staff averaged a 92.6 MPH fastball, good for the second-best in all of baseball.
Related to the reduction in fastball velocity is a drop off in strikeout rates by the Texas pitchers. The 2014 average K/9 for Texas pitchers is 7.0, down from 8.1 in 2013 and 8.0 in 2012. Here is how Texas has compared to the American League average K/9 since 2000:
As you can see, from 2010-2013 the Rangers were an above-average strikeout team, finishing 4th in the AL in K/9 rate each of those four years. In 2014, Texas is ranked 14th in the league, only besting the perennial last place team in this category: the Minnesota Twins.
As you can also see from the above image, league-wide strikeouts have been on the rise at a significant pace since 2000, going from 6.3 K/9 to 7.7 K/9 this year. In 2000, Pedro Martinez led American League pitchers with at least 10 innings pitched (both starters and relievers) with an 11.8 K/9 rate. In 2014, there are 11 pitchers with a K/9 rate higher than Pedro's. Strikeouts are far more common in today's game, and theoretically it has never been easier to build a pitching staff of players who consistently rack up strikeouts.
The Rangers' pitchers who have had success in generating strikeouts this year are Yu Darvish (11.4), Joakim Soria (11.3 -- no longer with team), Alex Claudio (11.0), Phil Klein (10.6), Jason Frasor (9.1 -- no longer with team), Aaron Poreda (8.9), Neal Cotts (8.8), and Shawn Tolleson (8.7). Beyond that group, there has not been a pitcher with any kind of significant playing time who has an above-average strikeout rate.
We might be tempted to think this is an area that the Rangers suffered in due to all of the injuries that impacted the team. With Nick Tepesch (4.0 K/9) and Nick Martinez (5.0 K/9) getting significant time on the mound that obviously impacted the overall team average. However, the players they were filling in for (Martin Perez, Derek Holland, and Matt Harrison) are not strikeout pitchers, anyway. And as Klein and Claudio did, it no longer seems uncommon to see a minor league call-up step into a big league role and immediately start getting whiffs. Teams like the Cardinals, Rays, and Indians seemingly can throw a rock and hit a minor league replacement who brings heat in the upper-90s. Texas wasn't able to do that this year, and even if they had an impossibly perfectly healthy team, they were never built for strikeouts in 2014.
There are obvious advantages to being a strikeout pitcher and an above-average strikeout team in baseball. First and foremost is reducing the number of balls put into play, guaranteeing an out rather than chancing seeing a ball find a hole for a hit. Opposing teams have had a .310 batting average on balls in play against Texas, the third-highest rate in the American League. This means Texas is allowing the second-most balls in play, and on balls in play the third-highest hit rate. If Texas were a stellar team defensively, a low-strikeout pitching staff may have been a solid strategy, but according to Fangraphs' Defensive Runs Saved, Texas is in the bottom five teams in all of baseball defensively.
One thing that could have offset the impact of a low strikeout rate would have been if the Rangers pitchers had also allowed a low walk rate. However, Texas has the second-highest walk rate in the AL. To make matters worse, the Rangers has also given up the most home runs per nine innings in the AL.
Low strikeouts, high walks, poor defense, and a lot of home runs combine to make one terrible pitching staff. Getting the club healthy and reducing the dependence on Triple-A and Double-A level pitchers in 2015 should improve the walks and home runs, almost certainly. However, there is no reason to believe that simply getting healthy will fix the strikeout totals and defense. If anything, getting healthy could further worsen the Texas defense, as the result would be daily play in the field from poor defenders Prince Fielder and Shin-Soo Choo.
It is because of defensive liabilities like Choo and Fielder that Texas cannot get away with being a below-average strikeout team. The increased number of balls in play would turn into hits at a higher-than-average rate, once again hurting the team's ability to prevent runs.
Texas doesn't have many opportunities to infuse strikeouts into the pitching staff. The return of Yu Darvish for a full season would help, and Holland will marginally help as well. Martin Perez's eventual comeback won't move the needle much, and either Nick Martinez or Tepesch seems to be positioning for a rotation spot as well. That may leave one rotation spot available to improve the club in this area.
In the bullpen, if Neftali Feliz, Tanner Scheppers, Robbie Ross, and Alexi Ogando hold down spots that won't make for a strikeout-heavy relief corps; only Feliz has a career K/9 over 8.0, a single season mark he hasn't hit since 2010. That leaves Texas with a couple of bullpen chairs which they should look to fill with strikeout guys, as they did with Neal Cotts and Jason Frasor in 2013, with 10.3 K/9 and 8.8 K/9 respectively. Internal candidates for those positions are Shawn Tolleson (8.7 K/9 this year), Spencer Patton (12.2 K/9 in the minors), Corey Knebel (12.3 K/9 in the minors), and Phil Klein (11.3 K/9 in the minors).
While no one is mourning the lower number of 100-degree days in Dallas this year, the loss of heat coming from Texas pitchers was noticeable and unwelcome to Rangers' fans. Looking at the success the club had when it was an above-average strikeout team in 2010-2013, and considering the pressure it relieves from the whole team, injecting strikeouts into the 2015 pitching staff is certainly worthy of a prominent spot on the list of areas the Rangers need to improve to get back to being considered contenders next year.
