DALLAS — The first half of the 2023 season was certainly more intriguing than many seasons of late for the Texas Rangers. April through the All-Star game was filled with more ups than downs, but baseball is a “What have you done for me lately” type of sport, and what the Rangers had done lately before the break has not exactly inspired confidence.
Still, they are up by two games over the Houston Astros and are in first place in the American League West for the first time in six years. There’s still plenty to look forward to in the season’s second act – here a look at what the team needs to concentrate on as the second half kicks off in Arlington:
The big question
Going into the 2023 season, the one large area that the Rangers neglected to address through big name free agency was the bullpen. Essentially riding the coin flip that their established arms could get the job done, Texas’ bullpen ended up being anchored by veteran reliever Will Smith, who was signed just three weeks before the season started. The lefty was elevated to the closer role and performed admirably in the first half for Texas, saving 15 games with a 3.06 ERA. The rest of the bullpen, however, was not as good.
Overall, the Texas bullpen in the first half of the season had one of the worst ERAs in the league at 4.56. They have blown the most saves in baseball with 16. They struck out the lowest number of hitters in the American League with just 274, with only Washington in the National League striking out fewer at 265.
On the final day of June, general manager Chris Young began the process of bulking up the bullpen by trading for controversial fireballer Aroldis Chapman. Unfortunately, with the Rangers’ offense struggling before the break, the advantages of Chapman’s availability couldn’t be utilized much in the last week and a half of the first half.
There’s more work to be done on the ‘pen and, a day after the All-Star game, Texas announced that they had re-signed Matt Bush to a minor league contract. Bush, whose rise and fall and rise again to and from grace has been well documented, revived his baseball career in the aforementioned 2016 season with the Rangers. He underwent Tommy John surgery in 2019 and continued to pitch for the club until 2022, at which point he was traded to the Milwaukee Brewers.
During his time as a reliever with Texas, from 2016-2021, Bush appeared in 140 games, throwing 141 innings with a 3.45 ERA and a 9.1 K/9. His time with Milwaukee was less successful, especially this year as he racked up a 9.58 ERA in 10.1 innings. It’s not a sure thing, but Bush is a familiar face, and returning to a familiar place might help him get back on track.
There are also other names out there to be acquired to reinforce the bullpen. Names like Chicago’s Joe Kelly (4.82 ERA, 11.9 K/9, 1.250 WHIP), New York’s David Robertson (2.06 ERA, 10.5 K/9, 1.017 WHIP), San Diego’s Josh Hader (1.08 ERA, 13.5 K/9, 1.020 WHIP) are among those who could find themselves with a new home come the end of July. With relief help being a huge market this season – the Rangers aren’t the only contending team with a need for better relief pitching – Texas is going to have to show that they are still in it to win it this year.
Texas could also choose to strengthen the bullpen by acquiring another starting pitcher. With Jacob deGrom on the shelf for the next year and a half, having another ace-like arm on the squad certainly wouldn’t be a problem. That could free the team to move either Dane Dunning or Andrew Heaney into a bullpen role, roles they’ve been in before. Names like Max Scherzer, Blake Snell, and Marcus Stroman are among the more attractive names on the market.
Return of the bats
As incredible as the Rangers’ first two-thirds of the first half was, the last third was just about as rough to watch. If one wanted to pinpoint a turning point of the season, one might point at the final game in the series against the St. Louis Cardinals back on June 7.
After winning five in a row, Jon Gray took the hill and spun a pure gem. The 31-year old, who has been experiencing his healthiest professional season yet, started and finished the game, allowing just four hits and one lowly solo home run while striking out 12 and walking nobody. In another universe, Gray would pick up the win in the Rangers’ sixth victory in a row and the march to a dominant season would continue. In that universe, the Rangers scored runs. In this universe, however, the Rangers only mustered four hits themselves, but none of them plated a run, resulting in a complete game, 1-0 loss for Gray.
After that, the Rangers lost the scoring magic they had once deployed through the first 60 games. The rest of the way, a span of 31 games, the Rangers would win only two more series and lose or split the other seven. Before that game, the Rangers were slashing .279/.346/.462, scored 386 runs and smacked 79 homers. From that game forward, Texas slashed .264/.333/.456, scoring just 145 runs with just 45 homers.
Texas has not been a cohesive offensive unit since that fateful game, many times missing opportunities with runners in scoring position, batting just barely above .215 in those situations. It starts at the top with Marcus Semien needing to return to where he was before that June 7th game: slashing .304/.372/.504. Since that game? .209/.272/.313.
Strength of schedule
The teams that the Rangers will face in the second half have a different profile and feel than they did going into the season. Teams like the San Diego Padres, who were thought to be championship contenders, have fallen from grace, while the Miami Marlins, who nobody really thought much of, are Wild Card leaders and second only to the red-hot Atlanta Braves. That changes the feel of how certain stretches of games will play out and may influence managerial strategy.
Texas starts the second half with a difficult stretch, regardless, as they play against three first place teams and their immediate rival, facing the AL Central-leading Cleveland Guardians, AL East-leading Tampa Bay Rays and the NL West-leading Los Angeles Dodgers before the team’s second-road series against the Houston Astros. By that point, the landscape of the AL West should be well established and Texas could very well be playing to unseat the Astros.
Following that stretch, Texas has what probably looked like a stronger point in the schedule, facing the Padres, White Sox, Marlins and Athletics. The Padres and White Sox are certainly not where people thought they would be, and the Marlins represent the biggest challenge in that group of teams. The Trade Deadline also falls on the day off between the Padres and White Sox series; Texas could have a different look when they land in Arlington again to begin August.
Two more tough stretches will come in September. After Texas finishes its last series against Houston, there’s a day off before the Rangers go on a 13-game stretch that has them bouncing like a ping-pong ball across the nation. They’ll wrap up a homestand against Oakland before flying north to Toronto, coming back down to Cleveland and then finishing at home against Boston. The final day off of the year precedes 10 games in a row against division rivals – three against Seattle in the final home series, then three at The Big A against the Angels, and then three more to finish the season in Seattle.
Lots could happen between the first few weeks of the second half and the end of the season, especially with the trade deadline only two and a half weeks away. But there are definitely opportunities for Texas to seize and business that they have to take care of against a very competitive American League.
It all starts with getting back on track, though, and Texas will look to do just that against the Cleveland Guardians at Globe Life Field on Friday.
Who do you think the Rangers will maintain their AL West lead in the second half? Share your thoughts with Matt on Twitter @FisherWritesMLB.
