ARLINGTON, Texas — Two of the American League Wild Card teams from last October are having a rougher go of it in 2024. The Texas Rangers were the league’s 5th seed where they traveled to Tampa Bay and beat the league’s 4th seeded Rays to move on and eventually win the World Series.
In 2024, however, the Rangers are struggling to gain any sort of consistent momentum while the Tampa Bay Rays are languishing in 4th place in the annually mega competitive AL East Division.
The Rays are flying into Texas without a break after finishing off a series with Kansas City on Independence Day. But for all the slight competitive edges that Texas seems to have in any given series, the Rangers just can’t seem to get out of their own way. Now they have to deal with the Rays, who remain a formidable team every year despite looking up to other teams in the East.
Tampa Bay Rays (44-43, 4th Place AL East, 11.0 GB) @ Texas Rangers (39-48, 3rd Place AL West, 8.0 GB)
Previously, for Tampa Bay…
Since mid-June, the Rays have been on a series-winning streak to climb back into the Wild Card picture. They’ve toppled Minnesota, Detroit, Seattle, Washington and, most recently, Kansas City and now trail the Boston Red Sox by 3.5 games for the final playoff spot.
Tampa Bay has pulled off the solid stretch on the strength of their rotation, which is classic Rays Baseball. Last season, in 2023, the Rays were able to ride a potent offense to contention; this season, things are playing out a lot more like they usually do for a Rays franchise that specializes in drafting and developing starting pitching.
As the Rays wrap up their road trip in Arlington, they arrive from Kansas City, having taken two of three from the Royals. Their starting pitching gave the lineup the opportunity to take their time and get settled at the dish. The starting trio of Zack Littell, Ryan Pepiot and Zack Eflin gave up just seven runs combined across the three outings. LIttell shut out the Royals, Pepiot gave up just two runs in the loss, while Eflin gave up five in a game that the Rays scored ten runs to make the subpar outing moot.
Excellent pitching has been the M.O. for the Rays lately. Over the last 14 games, Rays’ starters have posted an ERA of just over 2.50 with Tampa Bay winning ten of their last 14 games.
The last time these two teams met, it was the second series of the year for both teams back in April at Tropicana Field. Texas won the series, two games to one back when the Rangers were still riding the high of their championship defense.
Texas outscored Tampa Bay 15 to 9, and it was Dane Dunning and Nathan Eovaldi who picked up the victories for the Rangers. Aaron Civale faced off against Eovaldi in the finale, and Civale is no longer with the team. The Rays actually kicked off the 2024 trade season by sending Civale to the National League’s Milwaukee Brewers for an infield prospect.
Civale was deemed expendable as the Rays will welcome Shane Baz back to the rotation to kick off the series against the Rangers.
What to watch for
- Game 88, 7:05 PM CT - TBD vs. RHP Michael Lorenzen (4-4, 3.40 ERA)
- Game 89, 3:05 PM CT - TBD vs. LHP Andrew Heaney (3-9, 4.04 ERA)
- Game 90, 1:35 PM CT - TBD vs. RHP Nathan Eovaldi (5-3, 3.15 ERA)
The Rays are likely to activate the righty Baz to join the rotation and pitch against the Rangers in the opener. Baz, a 25-year old righty, last pitched for Tampa Bay in 2022 before having to undergo Tommy John surgery. Baz has been in Triple-A Durham and made ten starts; in the five starts that he made in June, he posted a 1.57 ERA. While he’ll likely be on a pitch count limit, Texas is going to see a lot of the 94-96-MPH average fastballs in the opener.
Tampa Bay has not set a rotation beyond that for the weekend, but following their order, they might opt for right-handers Taj Bradley and Littell. Bradley was stellar last time out against the Nationals, going 5 ⅔ innings and striking out 11 on the way to a shutout win over the Nationals.
Littell, meanwhile, most recently carved up the Royals over five shutout innings to set the tone for a series win for the Rays.
The Rangers will send Michael Lorenzen, Andrew Heaney, and Nathan Eovaldi to the hill to wrap up this homestand. All three have had up and down months of June, but Eovaldi and Heaney are coming off exceptionally good starts.
Eovaldi shut out the Padres over seven innings in the opening game of the most recent series, the lone win for Texas. Heaney, meanwhile, was able to quiet the Baltimore offense in the one game that the Rangers won from that four-game set last week. The lefty held the potent Orioles to two runs over seven innings, an outing that tied for his longest start of the year.
Lorenzen pitched decently enough in his last outing, but was undone by a grand slam, something that has suddenly plagued the Rangers as they’ve coughed up three grand slams over the last couple of weeks. All told against the Orioles, Lorenzen allowed five runs on four hits and four walks in five innings.
Both Tampa Bay and Texas have had inconsistent offenses that have put them where they are currently. The Rays are coming off a game in Kansas City in which they scored 10 runs, but they scored just seven over the two games prior combined.
Over the months of May and June, the Rays had winning records but also were outscored by their opponents. They’re slightly better on the road, at 21-18, but this series might come down to who gets to whose bullpen first. Both bullpens are in the bottom third of baseball in ERA, with the Rays a touch better than the Rangers in the late innings. Wearing out the starters and forcing them out of the games is going to be a main strategy for both teams this weekend.
Do you think the Rangers recapture their Wild Card magic against the Rays? Share your predictions with Matt on Twitter @FisherWritesMLB.
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