ARLINGTON, Texas — The final stretch is here.
Going into the last 10 games of the 2023 regular season, the Texas Rangers sit tied with their forthcoming opponents, the Seattle Mariners, for second place in the American League West.
Both teams sit one half-game behind the Houston Astros. The Rangers and Mariners are also tied for the third and final Wild Card spot, one game behind the Toronto Blue Jays. To say this series is large would be an understatement as this is the last chance for Texas to face their most immediate competition at home. The Rangers will play Seattle a total of seven times, including tonight, over the next 10 days.
Those seven games functionally act as an impromptu playoff series for the Rangers here at the end of September. There’s been no champagne showers and no special playoff t-shirts handed out but the outcome of these seven games against Seattle will more than likely mean the difference between a first playoff nod since 2016 or a season that ends on the outside looking in.
Seattle down the stretch
The last time these two teams played each other, in the first series of June, Texas had a fairly comfortable 3.5 game lead over Houston atop the AL West. The Mariners were sitting in 4th place, 9.5 games out of first place. Texas was on its way to the best start in franchise history and the Mariners were playing right around .500 baseball.
Since then, however, the Mariners have been the hottest team in the West. The M’s really took off in August, with two separate eight-game winning streaks within two weeks. After a loss broke the second streak, Seattle then won another four in a row. All told, in August, the Mariners went 21-6, their best mark in a month in franchise history, getting hot at just the right time.
The Rangers, meanwhile, after their own eight-game winning streak to kick off August, played their worst stretch of baseball over the entire year, and since that streak, have been a sub-.500 team at 16-21.
The Mariners have cooled off with a record of 8-11 in September, but they’ve completed the turnaround despite losing former Cy Young winner Robbie Ray to Tommy John surgery in mid-June, setup reliever Penn Murfee to UCL-surgery around the same time, and rotation stalwart Marco Gonzalez to left flexor problems. All three are gone for the season.
Seattle has powered forward behind Luis Castillo, their ace, who has recorded 207 strikeouts over 31 games. The Cy Young candidate will likely reach 200 innings and has pitched at least five innings in every one of his starts this season. The All-Star has been unflappable and the driving force behind a Seattle Mariners pitching staff that now leads the league with a 3.70 team ERA.
On the offensive side, MVP-candidate Julio Rodriguez has been everything Seattle could hope for from a young star. He’s the franchise player, a member of the 30-30 club, has driven in 100 RBI and can crush with power to all fields. Clearly one of the elite hitters in the league, Rodriguez has led the Mariners to a +67 run differential since the Trade Deadline, third best in the big leagues in that time frame and tops in the American League.
Seattle’s bullpen is also one of the best in baseball, second in the American League to the Yankees with a 3.52 ERA. They’ve converted 68% of their save chances, earned 95 holds and have only allowed 25% of inherited runners to score.
Since the All-Star break, Seattle has played like a complete team, dangerous on all fronts with a golden opportunity to achieve a second consecutive postseason appearance after a 20-year drought.
The matchups
- Game 153: 7:05 PM CT - RHP Bryce Miller (8-5, 3.88 ERA) vs. RHP Dane Dunning (10-6, 3.78 ERA)
- Game 154: 6:05 PM CT - RHP Logan Gilbert (13-6, 3.77 ERA) vs. LHP Jordan Montgomery (9-11, 3.38 ERA)
- Game 155: 1:35 PM CT - RHP Bryan Woo (4-4, 3.90 ERA) vs. RHP Nathan Eovaldi (11-4, 3.05 ERA)
The Rangers took advantage of their last off day of the season on Thursday by shuffling their rotation around. Dunning was always going to open the series against the Mariners, coming off a hard-fought five inning outing where he exited with a lead in an eventual loss to the Cleveland Guardians.
The steadfast and steady nature of Dunning is going to be key as he will face the Mariners for both of his last two starts of the regular season. Dunning’s last start against Seattle came in the clubs’ first meeting of the year at T-Mobile Park, where he gave up just two runs in six innings of work in a victory for Texas.
The Rangers have a gap in their rotation following the likely season-ending injury to acquired ace Max Scherzer. However, the off-day afforded them the chance to start Jordan Montgomery on Saturday on regular rest. The former Cardinal lefty is coming off of two straight starts of seven innings, having allowed just one run in his last start against the Red Sox.
It will be Nathan Eovaldi taking the hill in the finale, and even though he gave up three runs in five innings against the Red Sox his last time out, the fact that he went five innings is what matters most to the Rangers. Sunday’s last game at Globe Life Field will be Eovaldi’s 5th start since returning from the injured list, and he has increased his workload every time out.
Last time out, the 2023 All-Star went to 82 pitches over his five innings, which means, as far as pitch count management goes, he should be back to full strength for his final outings. Eovaldi faced Seattle in June, shutting out the M’s over six innings while earning the win.
Righty Bryce Miller will pitch for Seattle to start the series and he is coming off 5 ⅓ innings of shutout ball against the dangerous Los Angeles Dodgers. Miller’s been one of the Mariners’ steadfast pitchers since the All-Star break, having corrected course after two six-run starts at the end of July into August. The Rangers tagged him for seven runs back in June, sending him to the showers after just 2 ⅓ innings of work.
Logan Gilbert gets the ball for the Mariners on Saturday after giving up five runs on seven hits over five innings against the Dodgers in his last time out. It is surely an outing that Gilbert would just as soon forget, as he gave up that line against a division championship-clinched Dodgers team that was resting several of their key bats.
It will be rookie Bryan Woo closing out the series against the Rangers. Woo’s Major League debut came against Texas in June, with the Rangers coming off one of the most dominant months of the season. Woo was essentially sent out to wear one for the team and eat some innings, but could only last two frames, giving up six runs on seven hits. He hasn’t given up a run in his last two starts, though, but if the Texas lineup that scored 15 runs on Wednesday shows up against Woo again, that scoreless inning streak could be in trouble.
Each of these pitchers will likely face these teams again in the last series of the season. Neither team gets another off day the rest of the way, but the Rangers go to Anaheim to face the spiraling Angels after this series, while the Mariners will potentially be fighting for first place against the Astros in Seattle.
Texas’ job between now and the last four-game series of the season is to render those games meaningless as far as their postseason hopes are concerned. It all starts with the final three regular season games at Globe Life Field in 2023.
Do you think the Rangers will claim the series against Seattle and climb the standings? Share your predictions with Matt on Twitter @FisherWritesMLB.
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