ARLINGTON, Texas — The tightest, most contentious race in Major League Baseball as the season reaches its apex is the one for control of the American League West. When the dust settles on Sunday after the last pitch of the 2023 regular season has been thrown, at least two of the top three teams in the AL West are going to go to the playoffs.
More than likely, one of them is going home. At T-Mobile Park in Seattle, at least one locker room is going to be tarped and sprayed with champagne at some point this weekend. It could be both. Shockingly enough, with the Houston Astros on a rare September downturn, both the Seattle Mariners and Texas Rangers could be celebrating come Sunday evening.
But for Texas the steps are pretty straight forward. Win once, and they will have at least a Wild Card spot. Win twice, and they will be AL West champions for the first time since the 2016 season.
- Seattle’s playoffs Magic Number: 5
- Texas’ AL West Magic Number: 2
How Seattle got here
With a pitching staff ravaged by injuries and an inconsistent offense, Seattle was a disappointment for much of the season following a playoff run in 2022. With powerhouses Texas and Houston ahead of them, it didn’t look like Seattle had much of a chance of overtaking their Texan rivals. But the M’s were hanging around. With Luis Castillo and George Kirby leading the rotation and with young hurlers Logan Gilbert and Bryce Miller surpassing expectations, the Mariners played just good enough to have an outside shot.
They took that shot in July and August as the Mariners turned a corner. The Seattle offense refocused on their plan – swing at good pitches to hit. A simple plan when you put pen to paper, but it wasn’t a strategy that worked in the first half. Before the All-Star break, Seattle ranked 16th in MLB in runs scored, 25th in hits, and 24th in batting average. They were 2nd in the Majors in strikeouts. After the break, Seattle has ranked 8th in runs, 6th in hits, 6th in homers and 8th in batting average. They still rank near the top of the Majors in strikeouts, but now they’re finding pitches to hit and drive in the right situations.
The upswing of offense powered the M’s to a 38-15 run over July and August where they scored 283 runs in that time. They went from being on pace to breaking the franchise record for strikeouts to having one of the most prolific offensive seasons in franchise history.
Face of the Franchise Julio Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh, Jarred Kelenic, and trade deadline acquisitions Dominic Canzone and Josh Rojas have provided the punch. Rodriguez, in particular, has put up an incredible season after a slow start to the year – joining the 30-30 club (31 HR, 37 SB) and driving in more than 100 runs, becoming the third player in MLB history to do so before his age 22 season.
Midway through the year, the magic that powered Seattle to their first playoff berth in 20 years last season looked to be just a flash in the pan. Down the stretch, though, the Mariners have played like the best club in the AL West and would love to prevent the last two months of great baseball from going to waste.
How Texas got here
The Rangers have been akin to an inverse of the Mariners after being on top of the American League West for 90% of the season before struggles right as Seattle got hot. This has come behind a historically powerful offense that, even through some severe droughts, has remained at the top of the Major Leagues in several offensive categories, including average, slugging and hitting with runners in scoring position.
While the offense, powered by All-Star starters Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Jonah Heim, and Adolis Garcia, and really, for much of the year, a top-to-bottom series of threats, has carried the team. But there have been several surprises on the pitching side, as well. Some surprises have been awful, but have also resulted in some found fortune.
Tops, perhaps, has been the emergence of Dane Dunning, who won’t be scheduled to start in this series, having just concluded the series against the Angels. Dunning was slotted into the rotation after ace Jacob deGrom landed on the IL initially. The move was going to be temporary until deGrom returned, but not only did deGrom end up needing Tommy John surgery, but Dunning pushed his way into a permanent spot in the rotation. Dunning pitched to a 2.28 ERA through May and didn’t give up his first home run until his last start of that month.
The other members of the rotation have had their moments to shine as well. Nathan Eovaldi, whose own health had been called into question later in the summer, stepped up and became the Rangers’ ace as they built their early division lead, pitching to a scant 0.96 ERA in May before earning an All-Star nod himself.
Andrew Heaney had an incredible first two months of the season, including an 11.2 inning scoreless streak. Martin Perez had flashes of brilliance, and while he hasn’t been the stud that made the All-Star squad in 2022, Perez certainly was at worst a serviceable bottom of the rotation starter this season before trade deadline acquisitions bumped him to the bullpen.
Jon Gray, who also currently has health questions, became the Rangers’ second best starter through the season’s first half before tailing off in the second half. Despite the injuries which also includes the absence of big deadline fish Max Scherzer, and the fluctuation in performance, the starting pitching for Texas has been among the best in the league and it carried the Rangers through some of its rough stretches. The less said about the bullpen, the better, however.
No piece discussing the Rangers’ journey would be complete without mentioning the incredible year from Seager. Despite two trips to the injured list, Seager has played to MVP-level production, leading the league in batting average at .332 and tops with 42 doubles. He has tied his career high with 33 home runs, a mark he hit last year in 151 games. This season, the AL’s starting All-Star shortstop hit the mark in just 115 games.
It might be cliché to call Seager a “freak” as far as his on-field play goes, but it’s not an exaggeration when you watch what he’s been able to accomplish in less than a full season.
The matchups
- Game 159: 8:40 PM CT - LHP Jordan Montgomery (10-11, 3.25 ERA) vs. RHP Logan Gilbert (13-7, 3.75 ERA)
- Game 160: 9:10 PM CT - RHP Nathan Eovaldi (12-4, 3.26 ERA) vs. RHP Bryan Woo (4-5, 4.39 ERA)
- Game 161: 6:15 PM CT - TBD vs. RHP Luis Castillo (14-8, 3.20 ERA)
- Game 162: 2:10 PM CT - TBD vs. RHP George Kirby (12-10, 3.46 ERA)
And so, it all comes down to this. Whoever wins the division after game 162 almost assuredly gets a bye as the league’s No. 2 seed where they rest their bullpen and reset their rosters. For both teams, all hands will be on deck. Starters may turn into relievers this series, relievers may end up going more than what we’re used to seeing, likely being called on for more than one inning.
By that same token, each team’s best pitchers could be called on for just one very important matchup. The managerial skills of Scott Servais and Bruce Bochy are going to be put to the test as both teams fight, not just for a playoff spot, but for first place in the division.
Do you think the Rangers will celebrate the 8th AL West championship in franchise history in Seattle this weekend? Share your predictions with Matt on Twitter @FisherWritesMLB.
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