ARLINGTON, Texas — Coming off their first World Series Championship in franchise history, the Texas Rangers made a statement in the days that followed that they were looking to be more than just a flash in the pan. The overall sentiment from the players was that they were planning on being contenders again in 2024. And why wouldn’t they have cause to be confident?
The lineup and position players were highly productive and, for the most part, all locked up for the following season and then some. They would have Jacob deGrom late in the season, just in time for a potential playoff push; they’d have Max Scherzer and Nathan Eovaldi until then, with Andrew Heaney and Jon Gray back in the rotation behind them and with Dane Dunning coming off a year where he excelled at being able to swing from starter to reliever with relative ease. A reunion with lefty Jordan Montgomery didn’t seem like such a far off notion, either.
As the winter months continued along though, and with the Winter Meetings in the rearview mirror, the Rangers and their front office have made another declaration – the spending spree of the past two offseasons has come to an end. A cloudy TV deal tied up in bankruptcy has left the club without clarity in regards to one of their major sources of revenue. As a result, the checkbook has been mostly kept under lock and key this winter.
Suddenly, the potential legitimacy of re-signing playoff standout Montgomery was in doubt. Then news came that Scherzer would be out until at least mid-season after undergoing surgery to repair a herniated disk in his back. Martin Perez, an All-Star starter two seasons ago who contributed 141 ⅔ innings for Texas in 2023, signed with the Pittsburgh Pirates.
While most of the championship lineup from last year is still intact, the pitching is an on-going concern, only now, instead of just worrying about the bullpen, the starting rotation joins the list of areas having more questions than answers.
With pitchers and catchers reporting for Spring Training in less than a month, the only starter that has a guaranteed spot is Nathan Eovaldi. Gray, Dunning, and Heaney worked out of the bullpen and down the stretch and in the playoffs, and they all will likely rejoin the rotation, but are they back as starters only as a default as they keep the seat warm for returning pitchers? If they falter, who are the other options?
In the system
The first name that seems to make the most sense to start the season as one of the starting five would be LHP Cody Bradford. Bradford, a Texas native who made an inauspicious debut against the Braves in June of last year, went on to serve in a spot starter/long relief role for the majority of the remainder of the season with 7 ⅔ innings out of the bullpen in the playoffs. Bradford’s role in the minors, though, was primarily as a starter.
Bradford (5.30 ERA in 56 IP spanning 20 appearances including eight starts) was likely already going to be competing for a rotation spot in Spring Training, but his chances of earning a job in March surely increased with Scherzer’s injury and Perez’ departure.
Besides Bradford, Texas has former top prospects Owen White and Cole Winn who will likely head to Spring Training competing for a rotation spot. White made two appearances for the Rangers in the regular season last year, but made 24 starts between Frisco and Round Rock, racking up a 4.22 ERA.
Former first-rounder Winn spent the entirety of 2023 in the minors, but hasn’t fared too well in Triple-A. With the Roughriders in 2021, however, Winn made 19 starts, putting up a 2.31 ERA.
The Rangers would love for former top picks Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker to ascend to the rotation but Leiter has become a bit of a project and still needs time in the minors and Rocker is coming off Tommy John surgery after just 28 innings as a professional.
Outside help
Texas signed former Minnesota Twins starter Tyler Mahle to a two-year contract on the same day it was announced that Scherzer underwent back surgery. Mahle, however, is recovering from Tommy John surgery of his own. He had his operation in May, which means he’s out until at least the start of summer which only further contributes to the Rangers’ lack of first half options.
Chicago White Sox pitcher Dylan Cease is still available via trade after Texas was interested in acquiring him at last year’s trade deadline. Prior to the deadline, Cease went 4-4 over 22 starts with a 4.15 ERA. After the deadline however, the 29-year old went 3-5 in 11 starts with a 5.46 ERA.
Cease was the runner-up for the Cy Young in 2022, and his high strikeout rate still makes him attractive, but the remaining two seasons of control gives him a relatively high price tag that teams might not be willing to pay Chicago.
Former Cy Young winner Shane Bieber is also a potential trade target should the Cleveland Guardians opt to move him. Bieber, who had an injury-shortened 2023 campaign, has top of the rotation potential.
But Bieber’s strikeout rate has been steadily declining and elbow inflammation landed him on the injured list. That would be the risk a team like the Rangers would be taking on if they traded for him. The last thing Texas needs right now, though, is another pitcher with high injury concern.
Free agents
Montgomery still remains unsigned and both he and the Rangers seem like they’d love a reunion if an agreement could be reached. Until the second week of January, it was widely believed that the lefty, who was one of the Rangers’ most valuable pitchers down the stretch and into the playoffs after being acquired from St. Louis, would be headed to a new team on a multi-year deal.
When the Rangers announced that they wouldn’t be spending big this winter, Montgomery’s tenure with Texas appeared to be little more than a memory. But with the potential arising from Bally Sports’ bankruptcy proceedings to provide clarity to Texas’ TV rights revenue, talks about re-signing Montgomery have regained steam.
Blake Snell is another big name that Texas could go after if things with Montgomery fall through. The Padres’ ace won the Cy Young award last season and is still awaiting a contract. A former Rays standout, Snell put up a 14-9 record over 32 starts with a Major League leading 2.25 ERA.
The 30-year-old is obviously the top free agent starting pitcher now that Shohei Ohtani has signed. Because of Ohtani’s massive price tag, Snell is reportedly asking for a deal in the $240-270 million range. Not even a nice, one-time payout to conclude their arrangement with Bally Sports could help offset that kind of hit to the payroll for the Rangers, so expect Texas to be Mongomery-or-bust in terms of top free agents.
With all that in mind, the options are clearly light for the Rangers to augment their rotation at this juncture. Their best potential option would be to re-sign Montgomery, but with just under a month to go until pitchers and catchers report, Texas needs clarity not just for their revenue streams but also their starting rotation.
Who do you think the Rangers will be in good shape with their starting staff? Share your thoughts with Matt on Twitter @FisherWritesMLB.
