DALLAS — First base had become a black hole for the Texas Rangers since the days of Mark Teixeira. Chris Davis couldn’t keep the job before getting shipped out. Mitch Moreland played gamely for years but was never a star. Prince Fielder ultimately didn’t make much of an impact before he succumbed to injuries. Ronald Guzman wasn’t able to hit well enough to become a mainstay in the lineup.
After years of searching for a stalwart at first base, the Rangers made a trade for Nathaniel Lowe after the 2020 season with the hopes that he would become the long-awaited answer at a position of need.
In his first season in Texas in 2021, the young hitter lived up to meager expectations but he still had something to prove. In 2022, however, Lowe took a turn that nobody really predicted.
2022 Opening Day First Baseman: Nathaniel Lowe
2023 Projected Opening Day First Baseman: Nathaniel Lowe
Before 2021, Lowe had not had any continuous time in one stop as the full time first baseman. The most games that he had played in a full season was 130 in 2018, spread out across High-A, Double-A and Triple-A. Upon being called up to the Tampa Bay Rays for his Major League debut in 2019, Lowe had 93 games in Triple-A Durham and then played 50 more upon his promotion. Over those 50, Lowe slashed .263/.325/.454 with 7 homers and 19 RBI.
Skipping over the COVID-shortened 2020 season, where Lowe only played a modest 21 games, the former Mississippi State Bulldog joined the Rangers in December that year and then flourished in his first year in Arlington.
Lowe kept up the pace from his first taste in the bigs, but over 157 games as the Rangers’ primary first baseman. With 18 homers and 72 RBI, Lowe slugged a little lower at .415, but got on base at a higher clip, .357. The performance gave Texas hope for a 2022 lineup that included Marcus Semien and Corey Seager but needed players like Lowe to take a step forward.
What they got, however, was nothing short of incredible. Lowe was a persistent offensive threat, playing in another 157 games at first. Part of Lowe’s success has been his ability to hit lefties better than righties – and he hit righties pretty hard.
In 2022, left-handed hitting Lowe slashed .288/.346/.471 against righties, which is definitely better than respectable. But against lefties, Lowe was a monster – .330/.384/.536. He struck out 21% of the time versus lefties, as opposed to 26% of the time against righties. In the season’s second half, Lowe really took off with a .964 OPS that was among the league’s best. All of that contributed to a batting average of .302 overall and earned him the well-deserved Silver Slugger accolade at first base.
As far as production goes, it was a level that let a Rangers first baseman finally see the light from beyond Teixeira’s long shadow. By comparison, Moreland, the last first baseman that Texas had in the majors for consecutive full seasons, had his best season in 2015. His production at that time was a respectable .278/.330/.482. Moreland’s .812 OPS that season was eclipsed by Lowe’s .851 in 2022.
Moreland didn’t have the prowess at the plate that Lowe displayed. What Moreland offered, however, that Lowe hasn’t yet is a Gold Glove at first base.
Defensively, Lowe is no Moreland nor even Guzman. In 2021, Lowe committed 11 errors and in 2022, he had 9. In both of those years, he had negative Defensive Runs Saved compared to the average first baseman at -3 and -9 respectively. There’s room to improve, but no one will be mistaking Nathaniel Lowe for a defensive wizard.
But with a pitching rotation that is now less contact-forward and more strikeout-heavy, less attention has to be placed on how the throws from the other side of the diamond are going to be converted to outs. Instead, Lowe can concentrate on the bat that helped him toward a breakout campaign.
Being named the league’s top bat at the position earned the 27-year old a pretty hefty pay increase, as Lowe entered his first year of arbitration. With the team’s confidence in him cemented, Lowe could be in for an even more productive year for Texas. But even if he performed exactly as he did in 2022, to give the Rangers top-tier production from first base, nobody would complain.
Do you think Nathaniel Lowe will take another step forward in 2023? Share your thoughts with Matt on Twitter @FisherWritesMLB.
