ARLINGTON, Texas — The Rangers are teetering toward "They may have made a deal with the devil" territory. Because not much of anything is going right in 2024, on the heels of last year's World Series championship run.
Yes, they are only three games back of the Seattle Mariners in the American League West.
Yes, star shortstop Corey Seager is quietly heating up.
And yes, championship banners fly forever.
From there, it goes downhill.
The team's mounting injuries have stockpiled in the corner, while a languishing offense has rendered any solid pitching useless. Texas is 2-10 since May 10, slipping to 24-27 overall and below .500 for the first time under manager Bruce Bochy. In that 12-game stretch, the Rangers have scored two runs or less six times, including twice in a three-game sweep at Colorado's hitter-friendly Coors Field.
The offense showed only sparks of life in series losses to the Guardians, Angels and another sweep in Philadelphia.
The immediate concern is the lagging offense and the revolving door of an Injured List, particularly with the pitchers; for example, pitcher Dane Dunning returned from the IL this week, only for fellow starter Jon Gray to get added to the IL.
The broader context is that a stumbling start to the season – if you still consider late-May part of the start – was always a possibility. The Rangers didn't get a deal done with free agent pitcher Jordan Montgomery and entered the season with starters Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom and Tyler Mahle on the shelf.
The thinking was: Get the midpoint of the season around .500, get your pitchers back, and make another playoff run.
All of that is still very much in play, even if it doesn't look like it. While the Rangers' offense has struggled, it's remained mostly healthy, with the exception of third baseman Josh Jung, who broke his thumb in early April and hasn't played since. But for now, the picture looks rather grim. A losing stretch always will.
Let's politely go over what's gone wrong:
The injuries
The Rangers currently have 11 key players on the Injured List: Pitchers Nathan Eovaldi (15-day), Jon Gray (15-day), Josh Sborz (15-day), Brock Burke (60-day), Cody Bradford (60-day), Jacob deGrom (60-day), Max Scherzer (60-day) and Tyler Mahle (60-day); and position players Josh Jung (60-day), Justin Foscue (60-day) and Wyatt Langford (10-day).
The good part: All of those guys are expected to return at some point over the next couple of months.
The bad part: A team can only tread water for so long when that many impact players are on the shelf.
While the pitching staff has been hit hardest, the Rangers depth pieces, especially in the rotation, have figured out a way to stay competitive. Which brings us to the next (and perhaps most concerning) issue at the moment: The offense, or lack thereof.
The offense
The Rangers exited Oakland two weeks ago with the top-scoring offense in the American League. They had their inconsistent moments early in the season, and Seager struggled to get going after offseason hernia surgery. Then the inconsistent became consistent, and not the good kind.
The Texas offense over the last two weeks has stalled and flailed, giving the club's surprisingly steady starting pitching little-to-no help. In two weeks' time, the Rangers slipped from first in the AL in runs scored to sixth. The high water mark since May 10 has been four runs – which they've accomplished just three times in 12 games, twice in a losing effort.
Ironically, these two weeks have been the team's best player's best stretch of the season: Seager is hitting .333 with five homers and 11 walks for a 1.224 on-base plus slugging percentage. But leadoff man Marcus Semien is batting just .184 in that same span, and slugger Adolis Garcia is only marginally better, hitting .200 but contributing four homers.
Nathaniel Lowe, who gave Texas a lift when he returned from injury in April, is having similar struggles since May 10, batting just .140 with one extra-base hit, a lone homer.
The glaring problem, so far, has been the lack of pop in the Rangers offense. They might piece together a single or two, but nothing like what we saw in 2023 when they were third-best in the majors with a team slugging percentage of .452. This year? They're sitting 16th with a slugging percentage of .386. That's a power zap.
Another big problem – which probably goes hand in hand with the lack of pop – is Texas' inability to hit left-handed pitching. The Rangers are batting .238 against lefties with a paltry .294 on-base percentage and a .359 slugging.
Rookie struggles
It would be hard, and far from fair, to pin the Rangers' struggles on a lack of production from rookies. But Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford haven't been the boost – yet – that Texas was expecting this year.
Let's first look at Carter, who is now 2 for his last 31 at-bats, plus two walks. He had a brief injury stint in that stretch, to be fair, but he's clearly going through rookie growing pains, the likes of which he didn't experience after getting called up late last season. The struggles against lefties are still there – he's 3-for-27 against southpaws – but that was to be expected. Carter's success against righties hasn't materialized much either, batting just .218 with a .310 on-base percentage.
Carter had a solid stretch of 12 games in late April and early May, batting .308 with three homers and a 1.024 on-base plus slugging. But that just hasn't carried through the rest of this month. And what's more, the eagle-eyed Carter has drawn just four walks in his last 50 plate appearances. What was thought to be a baseline production – the walks – have slipped, too.
Wyatt Langford is another young Ranger who has struggled, though he's also been out since May 4 with a hamstring strain. Before the injury, Langford was finding ways to be productive, if not efficient. He had racked up 26 hits and 11 walks in 31 games, but just five of those hits went for extra bases. His lone homer was an inside-the-parker (hey, they all count the same).
Statcast tells us Langford has been a bit on the unlucky side; his batting average is .224, but his expected average is .246. Not exactly All-Star material either way, but Langford was putting the bat on the ball. He just wasn't slugging as much as the Rangers likely expected out of spring training.
Will Langford and Carter figure it out? Probably so. It just hasn't happened yet.
The bullpen
Is a 5.14 bullpen ERA a good thing? Is that the sole reason this team is struggling? No and no. The 2023 Rangers had a distinct weak spot – the bullpen – and it cost them wins on multiple occasions. This year's version of relievers is actually worse off in terms of ERA, compared to the 2023 bullpen's mark of 4.77. The back end might be more sturdy, with Kirby Yates and David Robertson holding down the fort, and Jake Latz and Jose Urena (when he's not having to spot-start) providing positive additions.
But the Sborz injury and the rest of the group struggling mightily has weighed down any progress Texas might have hoped for. Jose Leclerc, Yerry Rodriguez, Cole Winn, and Grant Anderson all have an ERA over 6.00. Not great.
