ARLINGTON, Texas — After a short three-game road trip against the best team in baseball, the Texas Rangers escaped Tampa Bay to return home where they will next face a division rival.
This will be the second time this season that the Rangers have faced off against the Los Angeles Angels; the first time through was at The Big A in Anaheim, where Texas took two of three from the Angels and outscored them 30-14.
The one loss was a product of a bullpen implosion during a time when that was seemingly a nightly occurrence. This time around, the story might be different, as the Texas bullpen has somewhat started to find its footing.
Where Los Angeles is coming from
The last six series have been very up and down for the Angels, but they are on a bit of an upswing of late as winners of six of their last ten and fresh off a 5-1 homestand.
At the end of May, the Angels were swept by the Miami Marlins, then took two of three from the Chicago White Sox. They followed that up by losing three of four to the Houston Astros before sweeping the Chicago Cubs. Immediately before coming to Texas, the Angels took two of three from the Seattle Mariners.
During that stretch, Los Angeles has had one day off – the Monday after ten straight games played. They are now in the middle of a 13-game stretch without a day off, which includes what is expected to be a grinder of a four-game set against the Rangers in Arlington, after playing into the early evening on Sunday in California.
For the season, the Angels are sitting in third place with a record of 36-31, 6.5 back of the Rangers, but just 1.5 games behind Houston for second place in the division and the second Wild Card spot.
As is usually the case in Anaheim, on paper, the Angels look like they should be playing a lot better. With Shohei Ohtani continuing his two-way player dominance and having a great year going into free agency and with Mike Trout still being Mike Trout despite being surpassed by some in the MVP pecking order, the Angels always have their superstars to keep them in games and they even promoted an exciting rookie with former top prospect Zach Neto at shortstop.
But the Angels are having problems converting key situations. They rank in the bottom third of the league in hitting with runners in scoring position. And on the mound, with any count with two strikes, their pitchers haven’t been able to put hitters away; the staff has allowed 231 hits with two strikes, third worst in the majors, second worst only to Oakland in the American League. On 0-2 counts, Angels hurlers have allowed 51 hits, worst in the league.
Their starters – Ohtani, Tyler Anderson, Jaime Barria and Reid Detmers, all of whom Texas will see this series – have put up a 4.79 ERA with a 1.39 WHIP and opponents hitting .254 off of them.
Things to watch for
Game 65: 7:05 PM CT - LHP Tyler Anderson (3-1, 5.62 ERA) vs. RHP Dane Dunning (5-1, 2.52 ERA)
Game 66: 7:05 PM CT - RHP Jaime Barria (2-2, 1.85 ERA) vs. RHPJon Gray (6-2, 2.32 ERA)
Game 67: 7:05 PM CT - LHP Reid Detmers (1-5, 4.79 ERA) vs. LHP Andrew Heaney (4-4, 4.14 ERA)
Game 68: 7:05 PM CT - RHP Shohei Ohtani (5-2, 3.32 ERA) vs. RHP Nathan Eovaldi (9-2, 2.49 ERA)
Dane Dunning will take the hill against Tyler Anderson in the opener on Monday night. Dunning is coming off of two decent appearances since coming back from the paternity list as he’s settled into the new reality that he’s likely sticking around in the rotation for the long haul.
In both of those starts, one against Detroit, one against St. Louis, Dunning gave up a season-high seven hits and season highs in runs, three to Detroit, four to St. Louis. In his most recent start, against the Cardinals, he surrendered his first home runs of the season and then allowed two more.
Dunning had been a key part of the Rangers’ early season dominance that has led them to first place in the AL West, stepping in for Jacob deGrom. Now with the news that deGrom will not be returning this season, the Rangers hope that Dunning isn’t hitting a regression period.
Anderson, meanwhile, has been roughed up plenty this season and has enjoyed only three out of eleven starts where he’s given up fewer than three runs. In his most recent outing against the Cubs, Anderson went five innings and gave up four runs on five hits with three walks and five strikeouts.
Jon Gray has been the Rangers’ second-best pitcher this season and last time out, he took the hard-luck loss against St. Louis. In the last game at Globe Life Field, Gray went the distance, throwing nine innings and allowing just one solo home run.
Since a four-run outing against the Diamondbacks to start May, Gray has pitched to an 0.84 ERA over six starts, and opponents are only hitting .154 off of him.
Angels pitcher Jaime Barria is a converted reliever, being moved to the rotation after an injury to Jose Suarez. He has pitched in three games as a starter, allowing just three runs in that time. In his last start, against the Cubs, he went five innings, allowing two runs on three hits while throwing just 76 pitches.
Lefty Reid Detmers has been knocked around a lot this season, but is coming off of one of his best starts. Against the Cubs, Detmers went five innings and allowed just one run on five hits, while striking out eight.
Heaney will match up against Detmers. In his last start, against the Tampa Bay Rays, he gave up three earned runs in five innings. The outing before that, against the Mariners, Heaney only went three innings, giving up three runs while battling through a lot of deep counts over his 78 pitches. The Rangers would like to see him return to how he looked in his last three starts in May, pitching to an 0.95 ERA while holding opponents to a .212 average.
The finale of this series serves as the marquee matchup, as Shohei Ohtani will face off against Nathan Eovaldi. Ohtani, who will undoubtedly hit in at least two of these games before he pitches, has already passed the 100 strikeout threshold in his thirteen starts. Aside from that, he’s been fairly pedestrian on the mound.
In May, Ohtani gave up 15 runs across his six starts, allowing 23 hits and walking 11. His two starts in June haven’t been much better, with the 2021 AL MVP allowing five runs on eight hits and two homers to Houston and three runs on three hits and five walks to Seattle.
Ohtani will be coming off of an extra day of rest, though, as the Angels try to manage his workload for a potential playoff push and avoid any sort of trade speculation surrounding the two-way star.
Eovaldi is fresh off a battle against the Rays, having gone 6 ⅓ innings where he allowed four earned runs, his highest total since he allowed six against the Kansas City Royals back in April. Since the end of April, however, Eovaldi has been outstanding, pitching 59 ⅔ innings, striking out 52, and sporting a 1.22 ERA with opponents hitting just .168 off of him.
The Rangers will have to go on the usual Trout Advisory. Even though Trout is below his career line in every category so far this season, the three-time MVP has long been a Ranger-killer, batting .332 against them with 44 homers. In the 19 games that he’s played at Globe Life Field, Trout is slashing .329/.384/.595 with five homers. In the earlier three-game series in Anaheim, the Rangers were able to hold Trout to just four hits with no homers.
This isn’t a must win series by any stretch for Texas, but it is against a division rival that they would be happy to help continue to be unable to put everything together. The Rangers would certainly like to use this series as something of a palate cleanser after losing their first series in just under a month.
Do you think the Rangers will beat back a surging Angels squad? Share your predictions with Matt on Twitter @FisherWritesMLB.