ARLINGTON, Texas — The break is done, the first half is in the books, and the record will show that the Texas Rangers (52-39) spent all but one day in first place in the American League West. The lead may have dwindled to two games up on the Houston Astros, when it had reached as many as six games, but they are still the team to beat in the division with 70 games left on the schedule.
Texas’ first test out of the box? A series against the Cleveland Guardians (45-45), the leaders (by half a game) of the American League Central.
Cleveland’s first half
Where Texas rocketed up the standings in the first couple of months of the season, the Guardians didn’t exactly stumble out of the gate, but they had moments of glory and moments of struggle. That probably explains why they’re at .500, 45-45, at the break. Much like the Rangers over the last month or so, Cleveland couldn’t get all of its pieces to work together in the first couple of months.
In April, the pitching staff put up a 4.04 ERA and the offense was hitting .232. In May, the pitching got better with a 3.65 ERA, but the offense was still sputtering at a .233 clip. Bats like Josh Bell, the former Pittsburgh Pirate and Washington National standout from Dallas, was signed in the offseason to be the hitter that put the Cleveland offense over the top. So far, Bell hasn’t hit above .250 and hasn’t found any consistency at the plate.
Catcher Mike Zunino, who was also signed to be an offensive tool, was designated for assignment because of lack of production. Andrew Gimenez, who was an All-Star for the team last year, has had a below average season. The team’s best hitter has been Josh Naylor, the brash first baseman, slashing .305/.344/.481 with 11 homers and 64 RBI.
The pitching has largely been buoyed by the bullpen. With former Rangers’ reliever Emmanuel Clase (the trade return for one-inning Texas Ranger Corey Kluber) closing games out for the club, the relief corps has been a tremendous asset for the Guardians. As a whole, the bullpen recorded a 3.09 ERA which tops the league.
While Clase might be closing the games, Eli Morgan and Enyel De Los Santos have been pitching even better than the closer. Morgan, in 41 games, has a 2.54 ERA with a 1.158 WHIP and De Los Santos has a 2.48 ERA with a 1.018 ERA. Relievers are a finicky group of baseball players, but the Guardians have perhaps the most consistent bunch in baseball.
The matchups
Game 92: 7:05 PM CT - RHP Jon Gray (6-5, 3.29 ERA) vs. RHP Aaron Civale (3-2, 2.56 ERA)
Game 93: 3:05 PM CT - LHP Andrew Heaney (5-6, 4.71 ERA) vs. RHP Gavin Williams (1-1, 4.01 ERA)
Game 94: 1:35 PM CT - LHP Martin Perez (7-3, 4.81 ERA) vs. LHP Tanner Bibee (5-2, 3.34 ERA)
Aaron Civale, who has only started nine games for the Guardians, has shown many shades of what he was as a potential All-Star in 2021. While injuries kept him off the field until June of this year, Civale has returned to show the Guardians that he is capable of being an asset in the second half of the season.
With a 2.56 ERA over 52.2 innings and just four homers allowed over that stretch, Civale is just the type of pitcher the struggling Rangers’ offense doesn’t want to see. Texas will throw Jon Gray to open the second half. Gray, who allowed just three runs in six innings against Boston, has seen more good innings than bad for the Rangers, but, like the rest of the team, would like to find the consistency from May that made him the Rangers’ second best pitcher.
Rookie Gavin Williams, the Guardians’ top prospect entering the season, will get the ball in the second game. Williams was drafted in 2021 and has pitched in 175.1 innings in the minors with a 2.10 ERA and 0.96 WHIP with 230 strikeouts. Over Williams’ four starts in the big leagues, he’s allowed 11 runs but struck out 19 with a 1.095 WHIP.
The Rangers will send Andrew Heaney to the mound on Saturday. Heaney has fallen sharply since June. He’s struggled to make it out of the 6th inning in his starts, and hasn’t completed at least four innings on three occasions in the last month and a half. While there have been starts here and there where Heaney has thrown well, the 32-year old lefty sits at the bottom of the Rangers’ rotation totem pole at the moment.
The finale will see rookie righty Tanner Bibee pitch for Cleveland. Bibee was called up at the end of April and has had ups and downs, although he had pitched better in his previous three starts before the break.
Bibee was Cleveland’s fifth best prospect upon his graduation and debuted in historic fashion, going 5 ⅔ innings against the Rockies, striking out eight, including five in a row at one point.
Martin Perez will oppose him, and if there’s a pitcher who needs a good start and a push towards the road of consistency more than Heaney does, it’s Perez. Perez, who bet on himself in the offseason by taking the Rangers’ qualifying offer, had a fantastic first month of the season before slipping back into the Perez that Rangers’ fans might be used to seeing in his first tenure with the club. A good start, followed by a bad start, then a few good starts and a bad start. In other words, Perez’ 2023 has been a rollercoaster of results.
Bypassing Bieber
With the rotations set for this series, that means the Rangers will not get a chance to see former Cy Young right hander Shane Bieber up close. Bieber, whose name has been floated around the rumor mill as a potential starting pitcher acquisition, has anchored the Guardians’ rotation.
In 19 starts, the 28-year old Bieber has a 5-6 record with 3.77 ERA, with 95 strikeouts in 117 innings pitched. He’ll be a free agent at the end of the year, effectively making him a rental, but as the Rangers look for any sort of pitching help to either augment the bullpen or bolster the rotation, Bieber has to be one of the names general manager Chris Young is considering.
This set kicks off three – and possibly four – straight series against first place teams. If Texas can get on the right foot against a weak AL Central division leader, that could give them momentum ahead of the matchups against the Tampa Bay Rays, Los Angeles Dodgers, and Houston Astros that await them.
Do you think the Rangers will begin the second half with a series win against Cleveland? Share your predictions with Matt on Twitter @FisherWritesMLB.