ARLINGTON, Texas — After navigating through the season’s first half with great success, this weekend set against the Houston Astros might qualify as the most important series so far for the 2023 Texas Rangers.
This isn’t about an intrastate rivalry nor even the Silver Boot, but more about who has the momentum to control the American League West going into the All-Star Break. After 81 games in the books, exactly one half of the regular season, the Rangers sit at 49-32, five full games ahead of the Astros, who come to Arlington at 44-37.
Will the Rangers build on their lead and perhaps bury Houston or will the Astros begin their climb to wrest the West back from Texas? Those are the stakes as the season’s second half pennant chase looms on the horizon.
Where Houston’s coming from
While June has been the poorest month so far for the Rangers at 14-12, it hasn’t exactly been kind to Houston either. They enter the final game of the month with a 12-14 record, and while they just took a series from the NL Central basement-dwelling St. Louis Cardinals in rather convincing fashion, the Astros have also suffered some gut-wrenching losses.
Those include losing three of four to the Toronto Blue Jays, losing two of three to the Cleveland Guardians, getting swept by the Cincinnati Reds and losing two of three to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The Astros will be flying into Arlington from St. Louis, where they just took two of three from the Cardinals. The run differential had the Astros outscoring the Cards 26-11, including a 14-0 drubbing in the final game of the series. In the rout in Thursday’s finale, the Astros were able to give their bullpen some rest, as they only needed Rafael Montero to help close out the win.
Houston last faced Texas in the third week of the season, as the Rangers took two of three at Minute Maid Park for their first series win in Houston since 2018, including a game started by Houston ace Framber Valdez.
Since that time, the Astros have suffered a few other key injuries to their team. Designated Hitter Yordan Alvarez, who was not voted into the All-Star Game, strained his oblique toward the beginning of the month and is not expected to be ready to play until after the All-Star Break.
Alvarez, a burgeoning MVP candidate, had been trading the big league RBI lead with Rangers’ outfielder Adolis Garcia before landing on the injured list. Before that injury on June 8th, Alvarez was hitting .277/.388/.590 with 17 homers and 55 RBI.
Starter Jose Urquidy will also be absent from the team, as he is on the injured list with right shoulder inflammation. Urquidy did not face Texas last time the two teams met up and suffered his injury after his start on April 30th against the Phillies. Urquidy had been 2-2 with a 5.20 ERA and opponents hitting .297 off of him.
Outfielder Michael Brantley is also still not with the team. Brantley has been on the 60-day injured list, recovering from right shoulder surgery and has not played since June of last year but is expected back early in the second half.
Things to watch for
- Game 82: 7:05 PM CST, RHP Ronel Blanco (1-0, 4.63 ERA) vs. RHP Jon Gray (6-3, 2.89 ERA)
- Game 83: 3:05 PM CST, RHP Hunter Brown (6-4, 3.62 ERA) vs. RHP Nathan Eovaldi (9-3, 2.82 ERA)
- Game 84: 1:35 PM CST, LHP Framber Valdez (7-6, 2.49 ERA) vs. LHP Andrew Heaney (5-5, 4.38 ERA)
- Game 85: 1:05 PM CST, RHP Cristian Javier (7-1, 3.72 ERA) vs. LHP Martin Perez (7-3, 4.28 ERA)
The Astros do have Jose Altuve back, however. Houston’s franchise player had missed the first 43 games of the season due to a fractured right thumb suffered at the World Baseball Classic this spring. He’s also been spelled a bit since his return, as he’s nursed an oblique injury and, more recently, heel discomfort.
In the series from St. Louis, Altuve was 3-for-5 with a home run, four RBI and five walks. First baseman Jose Abreu seems to have turned his game around too, hitting the ball harder than earlier in the year. In May, Abreu was slashing .180/.286/.247; in the month of June, those numbers have jumped to .292/.305/.517. Outfielder Kyle Tucker is also having an outstanding month, slashing .316/.389/.526, way up from the .247/.294/.387 line that he was showing in May.
On the Rangers’ side, Texas has had recent struggles with plating runs with runners in scoring position, but on an individual player basis, they’ll face the Astros with Corey Seager in the lineup for the first time.
In the series before their first encounter this year, Seager injured his hamstring against the Kansas City Royals and missed a month of action. Since coming back though, Seager has been perpetually on fire, claiming the role of the league’s preeminent shortstop while leading in most major offensive categories, despite missing weeks of action.
On the mound, the Astros will send Ronel Blanco and Hunter Brown against the Rangers followed by two pitchers not yet officially announced but Valdez and righty Cristian Javier line up next in the rotation.
The last time Blanco saw Texas, it was out of the bullpen, as the righty faced the Rangers in two games, giving up one run across those two outings. Ronel was pressed into service in the Houston rotation, mostly due to injuries to the other Houston starters. Since joining the rotation at the start of June, Ronel has won one game and posted a 4.70 ERA in four games with opponents hitting .287 off of him.
Brown was the starting pitcher in the Astros’ lone win against the Rangers in April. In that game, Brown pitched seven innings of two-run, five-hit ball, striking out five and walking one. Since then, Brown has gone 4-4 with a 4.08 ERA and hitters are slashing .240/.310/.406 off him.
The Rangers, meanwhile, used Cody Bradford in Thursday’s finale against Detroit to push Jon Gray’s start back a day to face the Astros. Gray will start the opener, followed by Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney and Martin Perez. Gray is coming off of another great outing where he was the hard-luck loser, giving up just one run as the Yankees shut out Texas.
Gray only threw two innings in his start against the Astros back in April, having to leave the game after being hit in the forearm with a line drive. Eovaldi, the Rangers’ ace, missed the Astros last time around, but is coming off of a short, 5 ⅔ inning outing against the Yankees, where he allowed just two runs in a Rangers’ loss.
Heaney, meanwhile, had another bad outing against the Tigers, in what has been an up and down June for the lefty. The last time Heaney faced Houston, he earned a no-decision, but threw five scoreless innings. Perez had a good outing against the Tigers, throwing six innings of two-run ball. The veteran lefty earned a win against Houston back in April, allowing two runs in five innings of work.
This is the second four-game set for the Rangers in a row during a stretch of 17 games in 17 days that will lead up to the All-Star break. The series has major implications on the state of the AL West, and while Texas just had a franchise-record four players named as starters in July’s All-Star Game, none of that will matter much if the Astros close the gap by a considerable margin this weekend.
Do you think the Rangers will come out of this weekend series with a fortified lead in the AL West? Share your predictions with Matt on Twitter @FisherWritesMLB.
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