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What the Rangers can expect from Max Scherzer in Game 3 of the ALCS

The Texas Rangers have been on the road for all but one game this October but they return home tonight and bring Max Scherzer along with them for Game 3 of the ALCS.

ARLINGTON, Texas — Count it as seven in a row in October for Jose Leclerc, Jonah Heim, Evan Carter, and the Texas Rangers. Leclerc has closed out all seven victories, Jonah Heim has gotten a hit in all seven victories, and Evan Carter has gotten on base in all seven victories.

Seven is a lucky number, and luck may have been on Texas’ side as they have enjoyed one of the longest winning streaks to begin a postseason run in MLB history, but there’s no denying that the Rangers have played well enough to take a commanding 2-0 lead over the Houston Astros in the American League Championship Series.

But the goal is not winning seven in a row. It’s reaching and winning the World Series. The next step toward that goal begins in Game 3 with the return of Max Scherzer.

Where we stand

Jungle Cat pounces – Josh Jung did not have a great day offensively in Game 2. He went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts. But Jung’s defense was a difference maker. In an inning in which Yordan Alvarez hit the first of his two homers to get Houston on the board, starter Nathan Eovaldi needed a momentum stopper.

With two out, a sharp grounder to the left side skimmed past the bag and seemed destined for the left field corner for extra bases and an Astros rally, but Jung slid on one knee and backhanded the ball that was rifled off the bat of Chas McCormick and in one smooth motion, he turned and fired the ball across the diamond to help retire the side and halt the momentum.

Jung was charged with a tough error call on a play in the 5th that started a bases loaded, no out situation for Houston, but Evovaldi masterfully escaped trouble and Jung’s defense came through again with a crucial sliding stab for the second out in the bottom of the 9th with Jose Leclerc protecting a one-run lead.

Immediate response – Coming into Game 2, Heim had collected a hit in every postseason game. He had an opportunity to strike in the first inning but was called out on a foul tip that was ruled a swinging strike. He became the first out in a raucous first inning. The Rangers would eventually score four in the frame.

Houston wouldn’t respond until the 2nd, when the ever-dangerous Alvarez rocketed a home run to right field. The key for the Rangers, though, was the immediate response in the very next half inning.

Heim continued his postseason hitting streak as he blasted a home run over the Crawford Boxes in left field for his first career playoff home run. That solo shot, as the Astros would inch ever so close, wound up being the difference maker in the one-run margin of victory.

Gut check – Texas got the early lead with their four-run 1st inning; some might say too early, as that gave Houston plenty of time to catch up. The Astros threatened in the bottom of the 5th, leading off the inning with two singles and one grounder that found its way under the glove of Jung.

The bases were loaded with nobody out in a 5-2 game and it looked certain to be a problem for Eovaldi and the Rangers, especially with their bats suddenly not finding many rallies against Houston’s bullpen.

Instead of disaster, Eovaldi turned into the bulldog that he’s known for being in October and struck out pinch-hitter Yaniner Diaz and Jose Altuve, and then got Alex Bregman on a bouncer to third base for some redemption for Jung to escape the jam.

RELATED: Arlington prepares for Rangers vs. Astros crowds

The Game 3 match-up

Houston Astros (0-2) @ Texas Rangers (2-0), 7:03 PM CT – Globe Life Field, Arlington, Texas – Broadcast on FS1

Starting Pitchers – RHP Cristian Javier (10-5, 4.56 ERA) vs. RHP Max Scherzer (13-6, 3.77 ERA)

Wednesday is officially “Scherz-day,” as Max Scherzer will make his first start since hitting the injured list back on September 13th with a strained teres major muscle that ended his regular season. Scherzer fought his way back, rehabbed hard and gave pitching coach Mike Maddux and manager Bruce Bochy enough confidence to put him on the ALCS roster.

Feeling good enough after his simulated start on Friday, Scherzer will be the starter in Game 3, but there’s no guarantee for what level of effectiveness he will be at given the nearly five week period of inactivity. But the Rangers traded for him at the deadline for exactly these moments. Overall in the postseason, the 39-year-old righty has a 7-7 record in 27 games with a 3.58 ERA.

Scherzer’s last playoff appearance, though, was an outing he would rather forget. Last year, as a member of the New York Mets, Scherzer gave up seven runs in 4 ⅔ innings as New York was bounced by San Diego in the Wild Card round. Similarly, the last outing Scherzer had against the Astros is one we all might want to forget. At the start of September, Scherzer faced off against the Astros’ Justin Verlander, but was only able to go three innings while allowing seven runs.

Overall, Scherzer had been performing as well as Texas could hope before his injury, going 4-2 with an ERA of 3.20 in eight starts with a 10.6 K/9 rate for the three-time Cy Young winner. Scherzer’s been a high-strikeout pitcher with an aggressive mentality that has earned him the nickname “Mad Max;” indeed, the fact that Scherzer worked to get himself back to pitch this season might reinforce the “Mad” label.

The Rangers anticipate Scherzer being good for at least around 70 pitches on Wednesday, as long as he is effective. That should get Texas through 3-5 innings at which point the bullpen will have to come through once again.

Opposing Scherzer will be Cristian Javier, who had one of the Astros’ victories in the Division Series against the Twins. Javier’s regular season was a severe regression from the outstanding 2022 campaign. Javier became more hittable, striking out far fewer batters and seeing his ERA leap by two full runs.

Javier has postseason success, however; in 15 games, he’s sporting a 5-1 record with a 1.91 ERA. But when the righty faced Texas earlier this season, the Rangers roughed him up. In a start back in early July, Texas was able to battle back from a 10-2 deficit against Javier to bring the score to 10-9. Texas touched the right-hander up for eight runs, including homers from Leody Taveras and Travis Jankowski.

Avoid or Continue

Avoid: Chapman on no rest: Bruce Bochy can seemingly do no wrong in October but the insistence on trying to push Aroldis Chapman to be the setup man on consecutive days is a move that feels destined to come back to haunt Texas.

Chapman has an 8.38 ERA on the second of back-to-back games with opponents slashing .263/.482/.342 against him, which is far more than his ERA and slash line on even just one day’s rest. Yes, Chapman only threw eight pitches in Game 1, but it’s clear, especially after the rocket off Alvarez’s bat that turned Game 2 into a one-run game, that Chapman can’t handle ramping up for an outing and then do so with an effectiveness the next day.

There’s been a day between Games 2 and 3, so Chapman should be ready on Wednesday if needed, but the limitations of the big Cuban seem pretty clear and the Rangers would do well to heed them.

Continue: Jumping the starters – The bulk of the production from the Rangers’ lineup this October has occurred before the 5th inning. With their “aggressive discipline” approach, Texas is letting the bad pitches go by the wayside and squaring up the pitches that are in the zone.

The ability to work the count, pass the baton with walks, and wait for their pitch to hit has led to extended innings early against starting pitchers which has allowed Texas to feast on hurlers the second or third time through the order.

Avoid: Letting opponent’s relievers relax – In Game 2, Texas stopped scoring after Heim’s 3rd inning homer. They certainly could have used the insurance, as Houston eventually made it a one-run game, but the Astros bullpen tossed 6 ⅓ innings of shutout ball to allow them to hang around.

Those close situations have led to Bochy needing to use his high-leverage relievers, throwing them in every game so far. To Jose Leclerc’s credit, he’s closed out each of the seven games Texas has played this postseason, but one would think that the battery is due to run out eventually.

Continue: Getting it done with the glove – Jung may have made an error in Game 2, but the Texas defense continues to be a strength. With baseball being a game of inches that is magnified in the postseason, fantastic plays by the defense can be momentum changers. So too can be the ones that aren’t made.

In the 1st inning in Game 2, Framber Valdez scrambled off the mound to field a Robbie Grossman tapper and threw the ball down the right field line, enabling a run to score in an inning where Texas would score four runs. Clean baseball will win this series, and the Rangers have shown the ability to do that.

It's unfair to say that the Texas Rangers stole the first two games from the Houston Astros. It’s unfair to say that they escaped Minute Maid Park with a 2-0 lead in the ALCS. The Rangers won these ballgames and now they have three in a row on the schedule at home in front of what is expected to be raucous crowds at Globe Life Field. They only need to win two and that begins with Game 3.

Do you think the Rangers will earn a Game 3 win at home? Share your predictions with Matt on Twitter @FisherWritesMLB.

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