ARLINGTON, Texas — For the first time in October, the Texas Rangers will face off against the Houston Astros with a trip to the World Series on the line.
Houston is in its “dynasty” era, entering its 7th straight ALCS. The Rangers hadn’t been to the playoffs during that time frame. Now they are embarking on what they hope to be the first of many consecutive trips to the postseason.
Both teams took a roundabout way to end up here, each with a record of 90-72. The Astros claimed the American League West via a head-to-head tiebreaker but now the Lone Star State takes center stage with the AL pennant on the line.
Both teams have some obvious standouts that have already been hot in the playoffs and both teams have some hidden gems that could awaken to carry them to the Fall Classic.
Texas Rangers
Star – Corey Seager
One of the great what ifs for the 2023 season has been pondering what Seager might have accomplished if he hadn’t hit the injured list twice. Finishing the regular season with a .327/.390/.623 slash line in just 119 games, Seager led the league with 42 doubles and tied a career high with 33 home runs. In a potential MVP year if health had been more on his side, he just never stopped producing as long as he was in the lineup. The same has held true in the postseason.
In the Rangers’ five postseason games, the $325 million shortstop is 6-for-14 with a home run, three RBI and six runs scored. There was only one game in which he didn’t get a hit – that was the game in which he set a new postseason record with five walks. Eliminating the threat of Seager should be at the top of Houston’s priority list, but that is true for every other team in 2023 and none of them have been able to do it yet.
Star – Evan Carter
The rookie was a deep sleeper three weeks ago when he debuted in the big leagues, but in this postseason run for Texas, Carter has been one of the brightest stars of October. The 21-year old outfielder has made headlines and highlight reels with diving catches and outfield assists, all while producing an impressive hitting resume. Carter played the last 23 games of the regular season, putting up a .306/.413/.645 slash line with five homers and 12 RBI, already worth 1.6 WAR in just over three weeks as a big leaguer. But it’s been what he’s done in the postseason that has made him a player to fear for Houston.
On the national stage, with the attention focused on him and his team, Carter has nearly matched his 2020 World Series MVP teammate Seager, having gone 6-for-14 with a home run and three RBI. He’s registered a hit in every postseason game and has logged six walks while garnering the nickname ‘Full Count Carter’ for his penchant for working deep counts.
Power was supposed to be the last of his tools to show up in the big leagues, but his home runs haven’t been cheap ones and his hits haven’t been squibbers. Carter is now a player that must be accounted for.
Sleeper – Marcus Semien
How could Seager’s keystone companion Semien be a sleeper? After all, baseball’s 2023 Iron Man, who started all 162 games of the regular season, led the American League in both hits (122) and runs (185) while also notching 29 home runs and 100 RBI. But that was the regular season.
Since the playoffs started, the All-Star second baseman has been mired in a 4-for-23 slump. He’s drawn two walks and, although he’s knocked in two runs and scored three times, his lack of clutch hits with runners on base have left him searching for his October moment.
Semien had a few low points like this during the regular season and he fought through them ready to carry the team on his back for stretches. The fact that the Rangers were able to sweep a 99-win Tampa Bay Rays team and a 101-win Baltimore Orioles team with Semien ice cold is something that should excite Rangers fans and scare Astros fans.
Sleeper – Dane Dunning
Amidst all the talk of “Nasty Nate” Eovaldi and “Mad Max” Scherzer, don’t forget about “Dirty” Dane Dunning. The once overlooked holdover from the 2022 rotation, who started the season in the bullpen, but was forced back into the starting rotation after the season-ending injury to Jacob deGrom, earned the staff MVP moniker from manager Bruce Bochy.
Despite the inconsistency of his role, Dunning ended up Texas’ most consistent starting pitcher all season. His one postseason appearance came as two innings of one-run relief, as part of a strategic matchup move by Bochy in the Game 1 victory in Baltimore started by Andrew Heaney.
Dunning’s flexibility is what makes him a sleeper. Dunning could get the call as a starter, or be utilized as a piggyback option, or work multiple innings in multiple games throughout the series. He’s a formidable weapon in either role, and consistency among the unpredictability of the playoffs could be a boon.
Houston Astros
Star – Justin Verlander
In his second tour of duty with the Astros, the inevitable Hall of Famer Verlander was exactly the shot in the arm that an injury-ravaged Houston rotation needed. Posting a strikeout-to-walk ratio double that of what he put up with the New York Mets before the trade deadline, Verlander brought stability to a rotation that lost several arms from their World Series run in 2022.
Verlander got the start in Game 1 of the Division Series against the Twins, putting up six innings of shutout ball, allowing just four hits and three walks but striking out six. It was vintage Verlander and a look at the kinds of problems that he can present Texas.
Last month, Verlander outdueled his twice over teammate Scherzer, going seven-innings and allowing just one run to the Rangers in a blowout win for Houston. If Texas can have success with the same patient approach that they deployed against Tampa Bay and Baltimore, they have an opportunity to wear out the 40-year old Verlande, but that is easier said than done.
Star – Yordan Alvarez
The continued otherworldly October success of Alvarez is a huge reason for why the Astros continue to hunt championships. Alvarez, who went back and forth with Texas’ Adolis Garcia for the league RBI-lead earlier in the year, put up a .293/.407/.583 slash line, while missing six weeks with oblique discomfort.
Similar to Seager, one wonders what Alvarez’s production would have looked like with a full season under his belt. But the 26-year old has made up for lost time in the postseason where he’s becoming one of the league’s playoff legends.
Alvarez went off in the series against Minnesota, going 7-for-16 with four homers and six RBI as a force of nature in Houston’s series win. The Astros have good hitters throughout their lineup but the goal for the Texas pitchers will be to face Alvarez without runners on base to limit the damage that he can do.
Sleeper – Alex Bregman
Bregman, the Astros’ talented third baseman, had a year consistent with his productivity last season, with a .262/.363/.441 slash line, 25 homers and 98 RBI. However, he finished the last 10 games of the season in a slump, going 7-for-38, and that dip has continued into the postseason.
In the ALDS, Bregman went just 3-for-15 with six strikeouts, although he did crank a two-run homer in Game 3. Bregman has all the ability in the world to be a thorn in Texas’ side in this series. It would be inconvenient for the Rangers if Bregman decided the ALCS was the time to break out, but it’s something for them to keep tabs on.
Sleeper – Kyle Tucker
Tucker had a great year for Houston, slashing .284/.369/.517 with 29 homers and 112 RBI. In many ways, the 26-year old right fielder was able to confirm his superstar status after years of being an up-and-coming talent that was often overlooked among the other Astros stars.
Tucker was an All-Star for the 2nd season in a row, and he eventually grabbed the league RBI crown. But for as good as Tucker was against the rest of baseball, he was even better against the Rangers. In 13 games, Tucker had a .400/.571/.650 slash against Texas, effectively placing him among the ranks of “Ranger Killers.”
However, the new production king for Houston has been quiet this postseason, going only 2-for-14 with six strikeouts. Sometimes a familiar foe helps flip the lightswitch so despite his slow start in October, the Rangers can’t afford to just assume another quiet series from Tucker.
Do you think it will be the stars for the Rangers that come through in the ALCS? Share your thoughts with Matt on Twitter @FisherWritesMLB.
More Texas Rangers coverage: