ARLINGTON, Texas — After a very successful May, the Texas Rangers kick off June back at home against the division rival Seattle Mariners. A third of the way through the season, the Rangers sit with a .636 winning percentage, 6.5 games ahead of fourth place Seattle, who are 7-3 in their last 10 games and have a record of 29-27.
This is the second meeting between the two clubs; the first series was three and a half weeks ago at T-Mobile Park. In that series, Texas took two of three from the Mariners and all were, by Texas’ league-leading lineup standards, low-scoring affairs.
The Rangers scored a total of six runs during that three game series, actually being outscored by Seattle, who scored nine runs in the series. Thanks to a bit of sequencing luck, Texas pulled out the series win and now will look to show their offensive prowess back in Arlington.
Where Seattle is coming from
The 7-3 stretch that Seattle is bringing to the Metroplex happened during a 10-game homestand that concluded May.
The hot streak is, as many have been around the AL this season, perhaps inflated by feasting on the historically bad Oakland Athletics over four games.
But they also took two of three from the spiraling Pittsburgh Pirates, before losing two of three to the rising New York Yankees.
The Mariners finished May with a solid 17-11 record, winning against bad opponents and having slightly rougher times against good opponents. Their offense is starting to be more reliable and consistent and their starting pitching is a clear strength that even improved in May.
Center fielder Julio Rodriguez, who was struggling when the Rangers last faced Seattle, will be coming into Texas riding a wave of five straight multi-hit games. Last year’s Rookie of the Year just won Player of the Week accolades for the week of May 22. Over those seven games, J-Rod slashed .467/.484/.800 with two homers and seven RBI.
The breakout has been a welcome sight for Seattle, as the offense revolves around their young star and he had gotten off to a slow start in 2023.
Rodriguez is not the only hot bat going for the M’s right now; catcher Cal Raleigh has been on a tear since a May 15th three-hit performance in Boston. In the last half of May, Raleigh slashed .289/.351/.539 with three homers, eight RBI, four doubles and five walks. He was hitting over .300 until he was held hitless through the series against New York.
Meanwhile, the Mariners’ pitching staff has been fantastic. Ace Luis Castillo has been getting it done in his first full season with Seattle and, in his last performance against Pittsburgh, he allowed just one-hit in a six-inning shutout performance.
George Kirby and Logan Gilbert have established themselves as young, good starters who are entrenched in the Seattle rotation, while newcomer Bryce Miller has been a bit of a sensation after debuting on May 2.
Texas won’t see Kirby or Gilbert in this series but they stymied Texas last month when the teams played in Seattle. The Rangers will get their first look at Miller this weekend, however. And it’s not just the rotation that is working out for the M’s. Interim closer Paul Sewald is enjoying a 2.96 ERA, with 11 saves and a .904 WHIP.
Things to watch for
Game 56: 7:05 PM CT - RHP Luis Castillo (4-2, 2.69 ERA) vs. RHP Jon Gray (5-1, 2.81 ERA)
Game 57: 3:05 PM CT - LHP Marco Gonzales (4-1, 5.22 ERA) vs. LHP Andrew Heaney (4-3, 3.76 ERA)
Game 58: 1:35 PM CT - RHP Bryce Miller (3-2, 3.00 ERA) vs. RHPNathan Eovaldi (7-2, 2.42 ERA)
Seattle faced Jon Gray and Andrew Heaney in the last series from the PNW and they’ll see them again down in Texas. Last time out, Gray was brilliant, allowing one run in the first inning and then shutting down the Mariners over his next six to earn the win.
Heaney wasn’t bad either, even though he allowed four runs over his 6 ⅔ innings. Dueling with Kirby in a close game, Heaney had allowed just two runs through six innings before a two-run homer marred his line in his final frame. That came on a night where the Rangers were uncharacteristically shut out as Heaney picked up the loss.
Gray, since that start, has been on a roll; over the next three starts after that Seattle outing, he has allowed just two runs total, struck out 19, and given up just one big fly. From that Seattle game through the end of the month, Gray’s ERA was 1.00, he’s averaged 6 ⅔ innings per start and opponents are hitting .170 off of him.
Similarly, Heaney has given up two runs total in his last three starts, allowed one homer and struck out 17. The lefty’s ERA the last four games has been 1.75 and opponents are hitting just .198 off of him.
Nathan Eovaldi will try to bring his sizzling May to his first start in June in the finale on Sunday, where he will match up against Miller. After putting together a Pitcher of the Month resume, last time out, against Detroit, Eovaldi worked hard to complete five innings of work, and even though he shut the Tigers out, the Rangers’ defacto ace had gone no fewer than seven innings in his previous five times outings.
Texas would really like to get some length out of their starters, and the offense needs to try and attack early and often.
If it gets to a battle of the bullpens, Seattle has the edge by a long shot, ranking in the top five in all of baseball in relief ERA and top ten in opponents’ batting average.
The Rangers’ bullpen might be starting to turn a corner, but the deeper that Gray, Heaney and Eovaldi can go, the less of a chance for there to be a bullpen mishap that relinquishes a lead.
On the offensive side, Marcus Semien is carrying a 20-game hitting streak into this series. It’s the longest of his career and tied for the current longest in baseball. The streak began way back on May 10 – the last time the Rangers faced the Mariners.
Josh Jung, in his rookie season, is up for All-Star votes as he leads every third baseman in MLB in his entire slash line, as well as in hits and total bases. Nathaniel Lowe comes into the series second among first basemen in hits. Adolis Garcia leads all MLB outfielders in RBI and outfield assists.
Corey Seager, even after being out for thirty games with a hamstring injury, still leads American League shortstops in on-base percentage, slugging, and ranks second in average. Jonah Heim, after a completely lost series in Pittsburgh, is carrying a five-game hitting streak into this series, during which he’s slashing .350/.381/.450 with six RBI.
There’s been no sign of letting up with the offense. The starters are still doing great. The bullpen might be piecing things together. All of that, going up against a Mariners team on the upswing, should make for a great weekend of rivalry baseball.
Do you think the Rangers will open up the month of June with a series win against a division rival? Share your predictions with Matt on Twitter @FisherWritesMLB.