ARLINGTON, Texas — It’s almost an inherent fallacy to try and preview and analyze a Major League bullpen. Not just for the Texas Rangers – a team with a bullpen that struggled mightily in 2023 – but across baseball, reliever effectiveness is unpredictable from year to year, perhaps even month to month.
This was highly evident with the trade deadline acquisitions that Texas made during their 2023 World Series run and even with the pitcher who ended up being the closer in the postseason, and the one who threw the final pitch to secure the championship.
Regardless, for a team that won the World Series in spite of its relievers, addressing the bullpen, even at relatively low costs, was a key point of emphasis for the front office this winter in their pursuit of a repeat.
2023 Opening Day Bullpen: Dane Dunning, Taylor Hearn, Jonathan Hernández, Jose Leclerc, Brock Burke, Will Smith, Cole Ragans, Ian Kennedy
2024 Projected Opening Day Bullpen: Jose Leclerc, Brock Burke, Josh Sborz, David Robertson, Kirby Yates, Grant Anderson, Cody Bradford, Marc Church
Can you name the winning pitcher for the Rangers on Opening Day 2023? It wasn’t $185 million dollar man Jacob deGrom, who started the opener. No, it was former first-rounder Cole Ragans who found himself the winner out of the Texas bullpen before becoming trade fodder mid-season on his way to a dominant second half in the starting rotation for Kansas City and an Opening Day nod for the Royals in 2024.
It just goes to show the flighty nature of a big league bullpen and illustrates the challenges that the Rangers will face in turning their ‘pen around in 2024.
Only two from the 2023 Opening Day relief corps are projected to return, as Jose Leclerc, who was the untouchable workhorse down the stretch and into the postseason, and Brock Burke, who had a down year after a sterling 2022 campaign, are penciled in. As for the rest?
Dane Dunning will be in the rotation and will likely remain there in 2024, though he does have experience now as a reliever. Taylor Hearn was demoted in April and then designated for assignment. He will pitch in Japan this year. Jonathan Hernandez has been dealing with injuries and had a very rough spring. The Rangers would love for him to bounce back and become a fireman relief arm like he was in 2022, but he won’t start the year with the big league club more than likely.
Will Smith had the closer job for much of the first half before cratering down the stretch. With Leclerc having a poor first half, the shakiness of the backend of the ‘pen necessitated the acquisition of Aroldis Chapman. That’s how the Rangers lost Ragans, who was traded to the Royals for the aforementioned Chapman and will be their 2024 Opening Day starter.
Chapman, for his part, had moments of electricity but was ultimately unreliable and frightening to watch down the stretch and into the postseason. The Rangers made it work and it got them a ring.
Former closer Ian Kennedy started the season with the Rangers, was released, then came back in September, only to end up on the 60-day IL and announced his retirement after the World Series.
There are a couple of names that look to be in the ‘pen for Opening Day this year that had some time on the roster in 2023, most notably Josh Sborz, who had a rollercoaster of a year himself, but was as lockdown as a reliever could be in the postseason and recorded the final out of the World Series-clinching Game 5.
Grant Anderson had an explosive and memorable debut, striking out seven Detroit Tigers while surrendering just one hit over 2 ⅔ innings. From there, his effectiveness was more erratic, frequently being used in high-leverage situations during some of the worst stretches of the season. During camp, though, Anderson and his offbeat delivery has not surrendered a run in 6 ⅓ innings pitched.
Cody Bradford was a valuable member of the staff in 2023 as a longman/spot starter and that’s a role that he could find himself in again in 2024, even though he had been projected for the rotation before the signing of Michael Lorenzen.
New to the team are veterans and former All-Stars David Robertson and Kirby Yates. Yates, who was with the Atlanta Braves for the past two seasons and was an All-Star closer for the Padres in 2019, joins the Rangers after a successful bounce back last season.
Coming off three straight injury-plagued years, including having Tommy John before the 2021 season started, Yates enjoyed a full, healthy, and successful 2023 for Atlanta, appearing in 61 games and putting up a 3.28 ERA and 1.193 WHIP in mostly high-leverage situations.
Expect Yates to get plenty of setup opportunities with the possibility to close games if Leclerc and Robertson are having a spell of ineffectiveness.
Robertson, who pitched with the Mets and Marlins last season, brings 15 years of relief experience to the Rangers’ bullpen. While he hasn’t been an All-Star since 2011, he was part of the Yankees’ last World Series winning team in 2009 and has earned a reputation as one of the game’s top high-leverage relievers.
Last season, Robertson pitched quite well for the Mets, appearing in 40 games and enjoying a scant 2.05 ERA. With the Mets collapsing in the standings, they were able to parlay Robertson’s success into a trade with the Marlins. Robertson did not fare as well with Miami, appearing in 22 games with a 5.06 ERA and being ousted from the closer position.
Still, the 39-year old has a career 3.04 in 42 appearances in the postseason and the Rangers would like for him to help them get back there.
It stands to reason that Leclerc, Sborz, Yates and Robertson will share the late-innings load, while Anderson, Burke and rookie Marc Church split middle relief duties with Bradford soaking up innings in long relief.
Church, if he earns the call after spending three years in the Rangers’ minor league system, had an outstanding camp, striking out 12 over 10 innings and allowing just two runs. For a system that has had routine problems developing and retaining pitching of any kind, Church’s ascent is a welcome sight. RHP Diego Castillo, RHP Jose Urena, LHP Jake Latz, and even top prospect RHP Jack Leiter are also potential options for the final few spots.
There is a measure of optimism with the Rangers’ bullpen this season, not just with the experienced arms coming in, but in the continued development of the pitchers who debuted last year and the promise of short-inning arms coming up through the system.
Bullpens are finicky creatures. For a Rangers’ bullpen that won a World Series despite having a save conversion percentage of less than 50%, having reliable relievers could put them over the top.
Do you think the Rangers’ bullpen will be improved in 2024? Share your thoughts with Matt on Twitter @FisherWritesMLB.
