ARLINGTON, Texas — The Baltimore Orioles might be in second place in the stacked American League East, but they have played like one of the top contenders in baseball in 2024, which presents a tough challenge for the Texas Rangers this weekend.
Right now, Baltimore has reached their toughest stretch and, like Texas, have been navigating the season while plagued by injuries. The Rangers, meanwhile, can’t seem to get all of the parts of their defending championship vehicle put together to get moving in the right direction.
Texas’ resulting mediocrity has lessened the hype around this four-game matchup that represents a rematch of the 2023 ALDS which saw the Rangers hand the O’s a rare sweep, but both teams have ground to make up to get to where they want to be nonetheless.
Texas Rangers (37-43, 3rd Place AL West, 7.5 GB) @ Baltimore Orioles (50-30, 2nd Place AL East, 1.5 GB)
Previously, for Baltimore…
Earlier this month, Baltimore took the AL East-leading New York Yankees to the limit and took two of three from the Bronx Bombers in New York. They have also taken a series from the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves and swept the Tampa Bay Rays. But after the series in New York, things have gotten dicey as the Orioles got swept by the Astros and are now freshly coming off another series loss to the Cleveland Guardians.
After cruising along for much of the season, this represents a road block for Baltimore that the Rangers will attempt to capitalize on. This tough stretch has been made tougher by additional injuries, but even with a week of poor play, the Orioles have managed to hang in there and are only two games behind the Yankees.
Injuries have been a big part of the story in Baltimore and they’ve done well to push through it. Their rotation has suffered the most blows, having lost Tyler Wells, Kyle Bradish, John Means, and Dean Kremer. Relievers Felix Bautista and Danny Coulombe are also on the injured list.
All this means that the Rangers are not the only team that has felt the wrath of a rash of injuries. Much like Texas, Baltimore’s starting pitching depth is stretched to capacity. Since Bradish’s Tommy John surgery occurred on June 19, the Orioles’ pitching staff as a whole has posted the second worst ERA in the Majors at 6.52 which is something to keep an eye on as they try to keep pace with New York.
Offensively, the Orioles aren’t struggling. They are the league’s premier sluggers, leading the Majors in home runs by a wide margin with 132, with Gunner Henderson leading the way with 26 homers as he has transformed himself from 2023 Rookie of the Year to bonafide superstar in 2024.
They’re second to the Astros in hitting with a .254 average and lead baseball in slugging with a .461 percentage. Even over the last eight days, with their record at 3-5, most of the games have been slugfests with the thin pitching staff being culpable for the losses.
What to watch for
- Game 81, 5:35 PM CT - RHP Jon Gray (3-3, 3.03 ERA) vs. RHP Corbin Burnes (8-3, 2.35 ERA)
- Game 82, 6:05 PM CT - RHP Max Scherzer (1-0, 0.00 ERA) vs. RHP Albert Suarez (3-2, 2.70 ERA)
- Game 83, 6:15 PM CT - RHP Michael Lorenzen (4-3, 3.04 ERA) vs. LHP Cade Povich (0-2, 4.15 ERA)
- Game 84, 6:10 PM CT - LHP Andrew Heaney (2-9, 4.17 ERA) vs. LHP Cole Irvin (6-4, 3.74 ERA)
As Texas comes out of a series in which they were swept by the Brewers, they will start off this series against Baltimore facing a former Milwaukee ace. Righty Corbin Burnes will kick off the four-game series on the mound of the O’s and he will be followed by former non-roster invitee Albert Suarez. Rookie lefty Cade Povich is set to throw on Saturday with fellow lefty Cole Irvin closing things out on Sunday.
Burnes is coming off an outing similar to Nathan Eovaldi’s last outing against the Brewers. Burnes went seven innings and gave up four runs on five hits as the Orioles lost to the Astros. The Orioles got length from their ace but a few mistakes were enough so that even their powerful lineup wasn’t able to overcome the deficit.
Suarez, whose last Major League tour was with the Giants in 2017, also took a loss against the Astros, giving up five runs and 10 hits in five innings. Suarez started the season in the rotation and was added back toward the end of May; as a starter, he’s 2-2 with a 3.12 ERA in the nine games as something of a revelation for the depleted Orioles’ staff.
Povich will be making his fifth Major League start since being called up at the start of the month. He pitched well in his last three games, but took the loss against the Guardians, giving up three runs on seven hits in 5 ⅔ innings. Wrapping up the series is Irvin, the former Phillie and Athletic. Irvin had a stellar May, but has fallen off considerably in June. He closes out the month looking to rebound from a loss against Cleveland where he gave up eight runs on 10 hits in just four innings.
Texas’ best starter right now, Jon Gray, has been tabbed for the opener and will be followed by Max Scherzer, who will be making his second start since returning from the IL. After Scherzer will be Michael Lorenzen and Andrew Heaney, both of whom pitched well last time out but not well enough to help Texas avoid the sweep in Milwaukee.
Gray’s last outing was in the series sweep against the Royals, where he shut them out in his six innings of work. Outside of the rough performance earlier this month where he felt he was tipping his pitches against the New York Mets, Gray has been incredible all season for Texas, pitching to a 2.17 ERA with opponents batting .235 against him.
Scherzer made his 2024 debut also against the Royals and gave Bruce Bochy even more than he was hoping for. Scherzer shut out the Royals on one hit over five innings, throwing just 57 pitches. The future Hall of Fame righty has still had issues with his thumb and forearm lingering, which could limit his pitch count, but he appears to be effective when he can take the mound.
Lorenzen is coming off a tough no-decision against the Brewers, giving up two runs over five innings; the Rangers lost that game when Jake Latz couldn’t hang on to a 3-1 lead after allowing a grand slam. Andrew Heaney takes the hill on Sunday, having also suffered a hard-luck loss in Milwaukee where he gave up just two runs over five innings.
With their winning streak emphatically halted while suffering a sweep against the Brewers, Texas would love to start a new streak in Baltimore. However, the Rangers are once again tasked with having to build momentum against the other team’s best pitcher in the opener.
This four-game series closes out the month and crosses the mathematical halfway point of the 2024 campaign. It’s been a month in which Texas currently has a losing record and they’ll have to sweep Baltimore to avoid it ending that way.
Do you think the Rangers will remember last October’s ALDS and take a series off the Orioles? Share your predictions with Matt on Twitter @FisherWritesMLB.
More Texas Rangers coverage: