ARLINGTON, Texas — The rosters are set and the time slots assigned.
With Billy Joel playing next door at M&T Bank Stadium later in the evening, the Baltimore Orioles volunteered the Texas Rangers for the noon first pitch to kick off the Division Series between two top American League combatants.
Texas has had two days to rest after sweeping the Tampa Bay Rays in two games in the Wild Card round, while Baltimore hasn’t played a game since Oct. 1 after their 101-win season granted them a bye and the top seed overall in the AL.
These two teams are fairly evenly matched, with strengths and weaknesses that could play out as the inverse of each other. The atmosphere won’t be like the 20,000 person crowds at Tropicana, as Baltimore tends to fill out Camden Yards fairly frequently and will no doubt do so in their first home playoff game since 2014.
The first two games will be from Charm City and then the series moves to Arlington to give Globe Life Field its first glimpses of its Texas Rangers as a playoff team.
The match-up
Texas Rangers (0-0) @ Baltimore Orioles (0-0), 12:03 p.m. CST, Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, Maryland – Broadcast on FS1
Starting Pitchers - Andrew Heaney (10-6, 4.15 ERA) vs. Kyle Bradish (12-7, 2.83 ERA)
The game within the game
The paths that both the Orioles and Rangers took to return to the postseason for the first time since the end of the 2016 season ended up very different. The Rangers, uncharacteristically, relied on the big name free agents – including Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Nathan Eovaldi, Jacob deGrom – to pair them with a group of rising performers such as Josh Jung, Adolis Garcia, Leody Taveras, Dane Dunning. The mix gelled as was hoped in 2023 and has created a top-to-bottom dangerous team with one big flaw. It’s a glaring, major flaw, though, as the bullpen simply has been a mess.
Without the relievers blowing 33 saves, the potential for these Rangers was immense. Surely, had they found the right combination to secure wins late in games, Texas would have usurped the Houston Astros in the AL West. Unfortunately, you can’t cherry pick those stats, and that’s why Texas had to play their way to the Division Series.
Baltimore, on the other hand, has collected a core group of homegrown talent, having played through two 100-loss seasons during a long and rough rebuild. They’re weathered from their time together, with veterans from other teams carefully selected to bulwark their young stars. The excellence of the Orioles’ players who have graduated from Baltimore’s lauded farm system will be on full display with many regulars all over the diamond.
Kyle Bradish gets the call for the Orioles in Game 1. The 27-year old is in his second season in the big leagues, having pitched well enough in his 2022 campaign to warrant a position on the 2023 squad. Bradish’s first start of the season, incidentally, came against the Rangers. It was an outing in which he was only able to pitch 1 ⅔ innings before a line drive off his right foot landed him on the injured list.
The rebound after the injury wasn’t exactly glamorous, as Bradish would go 4-3 with a 3.84 ERA in 13 games leading up to the All-Star break. In the second half, however, Bradish really took off, going 7-3 with a 2.34 ERA the rest of the way.
In the second series against Texas back in late May, Bradish held the Rangers quiet, throwing 6 ⅔ innings of one-run ball as Baltimore would go on and beat Texas 3-2 in a series won by the Rangers.
What Bradish did in his last three starts of the regular season was what truly earned him the designation of Game 1 starter. Over three starts, against Houston, Washington and Boston, Bradish didn’t allow a single run. Against the AL West champion Astros, Bradish allowed just two hits and struck out nine. Against the Red Sox, Bradish, in a planned short outing, pitched two innings, including five strikeouts in a row. The overall performance of the season, and the calm demeanor of Bradish, makes him a perfect candidate to start Game 1 of the Orioles’ first playoff series at Camden Yards in 7 years.
The Rangers, meanwhile, in a bit of a surprise, are sending Andrew Heaney to the mound in the opener. Although it technically falls to Dane Dunning’s spot in the rotation at this point, everyone except Jordan Montgomery and Nathan Eovaldi was rested enough that anyone else could have been a choice.
Heaney is not without his share of good pitching in big moments. Most notably and recently, the 32-year old lefty started the third game of the Rangers’ final series of the season against Seattle and with a playoff spot on the line. He went 4 ⅓ innings and gave up 0 runs against a driven and determined Mariners’ lineup that was fighting for their postseason lives.
Prior to that outing, Heaney made six appearances out of the bullpen, as the Rangers acquired both Montgomery and Max Scherzer at the trade deadline, pushing Heaney out of the rotation. Barring an appearance where he gave up six runs against the Cleveland Guardians in mid-September, Heaney was perfect in the bullpen in long relief.
Heaney getting the nod in Game 1 doesn’t necessarily mean that the Rangers expect length from him. With it being Dunning’s regular turn, Heaney may be asked to only go once through the lineup and he might even be used for a shorter stint than that if the plan is to get him to match up against the potential lefties at the top of the Orioles’ lineup.
Those LHH could include Gunnar Henderson (.209/.293/.324 against lefties), switch-hitters Adley Rutschman (.304/.414/.481) and Anthony Santander (.250/.353/.438), and Ryan O’Hearn (.192/.250/.539). Lefties against Heaney this season have a slash line of .276/.406/.400.
Another reason that Heaney getting the call for Game 1 is a bit of a surprise is he got knocked around by the Birds in his first start of the season, allowing seven runs in just 2 ⅔ innings back in April. His second time against Baltimore in May went much better, as he pitched in seven innings and allowed just one run in a Texas victory.
If Heaney is truly functioning as an opener, the club could turn to Dunning for the bulk of the day, and he comes into the contest on nine days of rest. Dunning’s original role on the team was as a long reliever, and he was excellent in that role which eventually earned him a spot in the rotation.
With their top two starters expended before Game 1, a shorthanded Rangers squad is opting for strategy from manager Bruce Bochy by naming Heaney their starter, and it may go beyond just the idea of merely matching up.
How the Rangers can win Game 1
In the three games that Texas played at Camden Yards in late-May, the Rangers slashed .278/.371/.472, hitting three homers and scoring 19 runs. In 81 games at Camden Yards, the Orioles slash .250/.315/.411. The Rangers offense is better, but the margin isn’t quite as large as you would think, with Texas leading the AL in runs scored and Baltimore coming up fourth.
Baltimore starters posted a 4.14 ERA and .246 batting average against, while the Rangers’ starters – including Heaney – posted a 3.96 ERA with a .248 batting average against. In this regard, Bradish clearly has the advantage over Heaney, as Bradish is riding the wave of momentum from his last three scoreless starts as he finished the season fourth in the league with a 2.83 ERA.
That’s the benefit Baltimore earned by winning their division. They got to rest up and reset their rotation and got with their best arm in Game 1. The Rangers were forced to use their best starters in the Wild Card round and are juggling the rotation for this series.
The most severe contrast between these two teams is, of course, in the bullpen. The Orioles’ relievers put up a 3.55 ERA, second best in the American League. Batters hit .236 against them, and they converted 69% of save opportunities. The O’s All-Star closer Felix Bautista is out for the season, however which makes things less of a mismatch for Texas as it would have been.
In 56 games, Bautista posted a 1.48 ERA with 33 saves. Certainly, his presence will be missed, but the backup option of Yennier Cano helps Baltimore not really miss a beat. Cano, in 72 games, put up a 2.11 ERA.
Conversely, the Rangers’ bullpen was the fifth worst in the American League, sixth worst in all of baseball with a 4.77 ERA with opponents hitting .242 off them. Texas also converted an abysmal 48% of save chances. It was only recently that Texas found an anchor at the back end of the ‘pen with Jose Leclerc reemerging – but Leclerc was supposed to be the anchor at the start of the year, too, and lost that job to Will Smith. Smith lost that job to Aroldis Chapman, and Chapman in turn coughed it back up to Leclerc.
The path to victory is the same as it was in Tampa Bay. The Rangers have to rely on their offense to get to playoff-debuting Bradish early and they need Heaney to put up zeroes for however long he remains in the game in the meantime.
Texas can’t let the bullpens become the deciding factor in the game. It’s unlikely that the Orioles are going to make nearly the same number of mistakes that the Rays did, but capitalizing on any miscues would go a long way toward helping the Rangers negate the home field advantage.
It’s not going to be easy to best Baltimore, but it all starts with Game 1, where the Rangers will see how effective Heaney can be in short bursts and how well the offense can ambush the opposing starter to quiet the home crowd.
Do you think the Rangers will go up 1-0 in the ALDS with a win over Baltimore in Game 1? Share your predictions with Matt on Twitter @FisherWritesMLB.
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