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The Rangers are reportedly out on Shohei Ohtani. This is why that might make sense.

Let's take a look at the key question for the Rangers, or any team, when it comes to Ohtani: Does it make sense?
Credit: AP
FILE - Los Angeles Angels' Shohei Ohtani walks in the dugout during the ninth inning of the team's game against the Detroit Tigers.

DALLAS — ESPN insider Jeff Passan broke the news that Rangers fans might not be wanting to hear: Texas likely won't sign Shohei Ohtani this offseason, instead turning their attention to different available players on the market.

The move isn't entirely surprising. Texas had been among the early teams mentioned, but it still would have been quite the coup to land Ohtani - for any team, not just the Rangers.

Granted, anything can still happen, and we've seen last-minute decision changes from free agents all the time.

So let's take a look at the key question for the Rangers, or any team, when it comes to Ohtani: Does it make sense?

That sounds silly in theory; a player the ilk of Ohtani should, logically, make sense anywhere he goes, and if he somehow doesn’t, you make the team make sense for him. But it’s not always that simple. Windows of contention must be considered, lineup fit, future plans, payroll and revenue streams, and, yes, age, all have to be factored into whether or not to tender Ohtani a deal that’s too good for him to pass up.

The Rangers, as you may have heard, are a franchise fresh off their first World Series championship, so they have a lot going for them. They have a solidified core of offensive talent, including Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Josh Jung, Nathaniel Lowe, Adolis Garcia, Evan Carter, Leody Taveras and Jonah Heim. That’s someone locked in at every position. They have a relatively set rotation, including Max Scherzer, Jon Gray, Nathan Eovaldi, Dane Dunning and Andrew Heaney. That rotation could possibly be augmented by Jacob deGrom late in the summer.

Texas has changed the narrative that Arlington isn’t a great place for free agents to go to and are now a premier destination for talent. But still – the question remains: does it make sense?

The positions

Ohtani is a left-handed hitting outfielder who has hit almost exclusively as a designated hitter in recent years while also a right-handed starting pitcher. Like deGrom, however, the phenom had surgery to repair a torn UCL, which will keep him off the mound for at least through the upcoming season. With that in mind, the great Tetris puzzle that is the Rangers’ roster of expiring contracts has got some places that the 29-year old can fit now and in the future.

The Rangers, going into 2024, just so happen to need a new DH. Mitch Garver, who was arguably one of the team’s most valuable players in the last two months of the season, is a free agent. With Texas having a solidified lineup, the need to re-sign Garver, even as a backup catcher, looks slim. For the whole season, Garver hit .270/.370/.500 with 19 homers and 50 RBI in 87 games, 57 of which were as DH.

By comparison, Ohtani in 135 games as a DH, slashed .304/.412/.654 with 44 homers and 95 RBI. With an entire season at DH and no pressures of performing as a pitcher, those numbers could be amplified. And even though Texas’ offense was tops in the majors in several categories, and that entire core will be returning, adding Ohtani to the mix would make that a completely unmatched lineup.

What about when Ohtani is allowed back on the mound again? After 2024, the Rangers’ rotation loses a couple of members, if they haven’t been lost at the trade deadline already. Heaney is only back with Texas on a player option and would be gone after the season. Scherzer, as well, who is likely entering the last season of his career, would come off the books. Gray, a free agent after 2025, could pitch his way into being an attractive piece at the trade deadline, depending on how the Rangers are doing. All that to say that by the time Ohtani is ready to pitch in 2025, there will be a spot open in the Texas rotation.

What can be expected from Ohtani as a pitcher? In 2022, the only season in which he had a finish in the Cy Young voting, Ohtani made 28 starts, going 15-9 with a 2.33 ERA, 219 strikeouts and 44 walks, good for an incomparable 4.98 K/BB ratio. By comparison, Max Scherzer, between the Mets and Rangers, made 27 starts, going 13-6 with a 3.77 ERA, 174 strikeouts and 45 walks. Ohtani’s 2023 wasn’t as successful, going 10-5 with a 3.14 ERA, but as he recovers from his second UCL surgery, the Rangers could certainly find a spot for him in their 2025 rotation.

The obstacles

Given the above, it sounds like it’s just a matter of money, but there are other, less checkbook-related things that the Rangers will have to consider when drawing up a record-breaking offer for Ohtani.

Firstly, they already have three monster contracts on their books. You can’t overlook the remaining eight years left on Corey Seager’s contract, five years left on Marcus Semien’s contract, and the $155 million still guaranteed deGrom over the next four years. Assuming that Ohtani gets himself at least a 10-year deal, that’s a lot of money and playing time tied up in four players playing through their late 30s.

Secondly, the arm operation this year is Ohtani’s second UCL-related surgery. He had a full Tommy John surgery right after his rookie season in 2018. The Rangers are already going to have a pitcher coming off of his second Tommy John surgery in 2025 with deGrom. As appealing as it is to have Shohei Ohtani and Jacob deGrom leading your rotation, it doesn’t make a difference if both of them end up struggling in their ensuing seasons as they both attempt difficult rehabs.

Having one pitcher struggle to find footing in a season can be weathered and mitigated, having two top tier, expensive pitchers with problems can sink full seasons.

Thirdly, the Rangers, even though they won the World Series, still have a glaring hole that can render even the best starting pitching seasons a completely moot point. The Rangers’ bullpen still lacks any stability beyond Jose Leclerc. The Rangers took the time in the 2021 offseason to concentrate on offense, upgraded the rotation after 2022, and now the franchise needs to pivot toward solidifying the bullpen.

While long-term, high-dollar bullpen contracts aren’t alluring due to the volatility of a reliever’s arm, the Rangers are going to need to spend some money to increase their chances at having something steady and reliable in the bullpen that can hold close leads.

The biggest obstacle though, is something that the Rangers can only do so much about. Money-wise, if the recent off-seasons are any indication, Texas and its owners can probably go toe-to-toe with any of the big market, big spending teams. But because Ohtani is effectively a unicorn, Shohei Ohtani is going to go where Shohei Ohtani wants to go.

If Ohtani’s heart decides it wants to stay on the West Coast, there’s nothing Texas can do that is going to change the phenom’s mind. If Ohtani decides that he wants to test the bright lights of New York, well, he won’t find that here.

Following his heart is what led him to sign with Los Angeles in the first place. Now that he's had time in the big leagues, Ohtani has a better grasp on what each city has to offer and what each franchise can offer him as far as whatever goal he has in mind.

The Rangers were a finalist for Ohtani back when he came over from Japan and now they have won the most recent World Series. That gets their foot in the door and is the biggest convincing factor for Ohtani to agree to play for Texas. As Max Scherzer said, “Money’s great, but winning’s better.”

Do you think the Rangers should sign Shohei Ohtani? Share your thoughts with Matt on Twitter @FisherWritesMLB.

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