ARLINGTON, Texas — Hot off the heels of the franchise’s first World Series championship, there is a different air and different feeling in Arlington as the equipment trucks take off for Surprise, Arizona. For once, the Texas Rangers are the team to beat.
Going into Spring Training, however, some old demons and potential dark clouds loom over the ballclub, as aliments to key players and a tied-up payroll have placed an uneasy outlook on the Rangers for the 2024 season. The goal will be to repeat as champions but the offseason leaves question marks for the roster.
Some integral parts remain for Texas, but a wave of injuries – and a forever-elusive fleshed out pitching staff – have left the Rangers with plenty to hope on but also a long list of troubles to attempt to solve this upcoming spring after a more difficult than expected winter.
The Good
Texas’ lineup, for the most part, remains intact. Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Jonah Heim, Adolis Garcia and Josh Jung all started the All-Star game at their respective positions last summer and stalwart first baseman Nathaniel Lowe has a Silver Slugger award under his belt.
The hitters are all primed and ready to remind fans of the fact that the Texas offense was tops in baseball for most of 2023. Texas finished a hair behind the powerhouse Atlanta Braves in the Majors, with a team slash line of .276/.344/.501. They led the American League in hits at 1470, runs at 881, RBI at 845, walks with 599 and total bases at 2531. A lot of their damage was done in the early half of the season, including an unfathomable run in May with a slash of .286/.341/.456.
Gone is designated hitter/catcher Mitch Garver, but the Rangers will look forward to a full season of rookie phenom Evan Carter. During the 23 regular season games he played following his debut in September, Carter, only 21-years old, batted .306/.413./.645 with five homers and 12 RBI.
In his first ever postseason, Carter was undaunted by the bright lights as the outfielder set a Major League record by getting on base in each of Texas’ first 17 playoff games while also earning a record for the most doubles in a single postseason with nine. After hitting third in the lineup during the game in which the Rangers clinched the World Series, Carter will begin his actual rookie campaign in 2024 as something of a not-so-secret weapon.
And who knows, after a superlative professional debut last summer, 2023 No. 4 overall selection Wyatt Langford could find himself in the lineup on Opening Day, as well, to add even more pop to the AL’s best lineup.
The Bad
The Rangers’ bullpen was a constant source of stress, drama, agony, and heartache during the summer in 2023. With that in mind, Texas was able to win the World Series quite literally in spite of their bullpen, a task nearly unheard of in modern baseball.
The Rangers became the first team to make it into the playoffs having more blown saves (33) than actual saves (30), much less win the whole thing. There was not a moment all year where the Rangers’ bullpen provided anything resembling a feeling that things were in hand, even as they stabilized in October around the superhuman efforts of Jose Leclerc, Josh Sborz, and many starters turned relievers.
In fact, during the regular season, Rangers’ relievers posted a staggering ERA of 4.77 in 564.1 innings. It’s miraculous that Texas was able to pull off their first World Series win with such a volatile unit and that unit will be tested heavily in 2024.
While the pocketbook certainly wasn’t raided this offseason to address the issues of the bullpen, there is some proof of effort by the front office to shore up the relief corps. Most notably in terms of name value with former New York Yankee closer David Robertson earning a one-year deal with the champs.
Robertson started his 2023 with the other New York team, the Mets, and it was his trade to Miami ahead of the deadline that was the catalyst for the rest of the players on the Mets to jump ship, including Max Scherzer to Texas.
After posting a 2.05 ERA with 14 saves with the Mets, New York took the opportunity to trade him at high value to the Marlins, where Robertson was not as effective. However, after being removed from the closer position in Miami, Robertson finished the season strong which led the right-handed 38-year-old to Texas as a veteran option with an opportunity to grab the closer gig.
Also coming in to help the ‘pen is former Braves reliever Kirby Yates. The 2019 All-Star Yates went through his first full season in four injury-laden years, making 61 appearances and putting up a 3.28 ERA. Yates was one of the more dominant relievers in baseball before the start of the decade, but injuries prevented any consistency in recent years.
While those two names certainly can help the bullpen on paper, Aroldis Chapman and Will Smith were supposed to be fairly sure bets as well. Neither return after struggling down the stretch and into October.
The best solution to a faulty bullpen is to have a lot of bullets to fire at will. Leclerc, who was masterful in the postseason, saving all but one of Texas’ victories, will be back, as will Sborz and Brock Burke.
Ultimately, the Rangers need to see more out of the potential relievers from their system. Names like Jonathan Hernandez, Jake Latz, Carson Coleman, and Grant Anderson will be evaluated and scrutinized. Unless Texas picks up some more pieces during Spring Training, they run the risk of being short on relief arms again in 2024.
The Ugly
There’s no denying that the Rangers’ rotation looked potentially thin on paper going into the season last summer, but worse, it was also as fragile as that paper. After spending the winter after 2021 enhancing the offense, general manager Chris Young took the next offseason to completely overhaul the starting staff.
With Jon Gray and Martin Perez holdovers, the Rangers augmented their rotation with the signings of Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, and Andrew Heaney. Interestingly enough, as deGrom would go down with a season-ending injury in May, it was another holdover, Dane Dunning, that would ultimately step up and become the team’s pitching MVP.
Dunning, for the year, pitched to a 12-7 record with a 3.70 ERA. After starting the year in the bullpen, his success at stabilizing the rotation when the club’s ace went down was a huge reason for the Rangers getting out to a lead in the first half.
Now, after spending the World Series run in the bullpen, Dunning appears destined to start the 2024 season back in the rotation, right behind Eovaldi and Gray as a near-cemented option. With deGrom and now Scherzer out until at least midseason, manager Bruce Bochy rides into 2024 looking for an arm or two to step up and give the team some innings before the veterans return, including winter addition Tyler Mahle who is also due back in the second half after signing with Texas in December.
Assuming good health, the Rangers’ starting five looks to begin with Eovaldi, Gray, Dunning, and likely Andrew Heaney. Heaney and Gray both pitched as either openers or relief pitchers down the stretch and into the postseason, but like Dunning, their experience as starters gives them a leg up on the limited in-house competition.
2023 rookie Cody Bradford, who made a few spot starts and tossed 7 ⅔ innings in the playoffs, could be the leading candidate for the fifth spot to open the season with prospects Owen White, Jack Leiter, and Cole Winn all competing in Surprise for a job until reinforcements in the form of Scherzer, deGrom, and Mahle are ready to go.
On paper, the second half of the season looks tremendous for Texas, with the possibilities of former All-Stars and Cy Youngs returning. But the first half of the year looks like it has a Jordan Montgomery-sized hole in it and if the pitching staff doesn’t give up fewer runs than the offense mashes, the second half could be rendered moot in a familiar refrain for a franchise that has reached new heights.
Do you think the Rangers should have done more over the winter to defend their championship? Share your thoughts with Matt on Twitter @FisherWritesMLB.
