I'll start by just ripping off the band-aid quickly, rather than let you languish in false hope for weeks as I've done: Texas isn't signing Yoenis Cespedes or Zack Greinke this off-season. Not unless Shin-Soo Choo and Elvis Andrus offer to play for free, and since that has only happened never in history, and in fact is against the rules of common sense, capitalism, and the Collective Bargaining Agreement, let's just wave sadly out the window as they both end up in SoCal this offseason.
I know. I'm sad about it too.
That said, the Rangers do have the opportunity to improve the team this off-season, and now that the World Series is over, it's time to consider what those moves will be. The obvious areas that need improvement are left field, a right-handed bat, and since this is a baseball team that plays baseball, the obligatory annual "bullpen upgrades"
PART ONE: THE BORING STUFF! ARBITRATION AND CONTRACT RENEWALS!
I'll run through this quickly and try not to delve too deeply into the rules of team control and arbitration, but I've divided the contracts into groups to make it simpler to keep track.
- AAAA Role Players: Guys who will bounce back and forth between AAA and MLB. Every team will have these guys every year; some of whom are en route to being superstars, and others who are Tommy Field. From a payroll standpoint, however, it doesn't matter whether you're paying Anthony Ranaudo or Joey Gallo, the paycheck is the same: $3,132.72 per game. Here is a probably-incomplete list of names that go in this group. Ryan Rua, Nick Martinez, Chi Chi Gonzalez, Spencer Patton, Joey Gallo, Ryan Strausborger, Andrew Faulkner, Luke Jackson, Alex Claudio, Stolmy Pimentel, Phil Klein, and Anthony Ranaudo. You'll probably see some other new faces from AA and AAA in 2016 as well, potentially in the form of Nomar Mazara, and (slightly less likely) Lewis Brinson.
Increase in Payroll, 2016: Negligible
- Cheap Labor: Guys who will make at or near the league minimum, but will play a regular role on the 2016 team. This group likely consists of: Delino DeShields, Keone Kela, Sam Freeman, Luke Jackson, and Hanser Alberto
Increase in Payroll, 2016: Negligible
- Rougned Odor: he is his own group for this exercise, as a long-term contract extension is rumored to be in the works. The terms are anyone's guess, but here's how I'd try to do it: since he's under team control through 2020, I would make an offer of 7 years and $132 million to lock him in until 2022, but structured so that he makes 4, 5, and 6 million in the next three years, then bumps up to $15m for the next three, with the last year of $18m structured as a team option with a $2m buyout.
Increase in Payroll, 2016: ~$3.5m
- Arbitration-Eligible: I used the projections given by MLBTradeRumors.com in this helpful list. The arbitration-eligible Rangers this year (with projected Salary in parentheses) are: Mitch Moreland ($5.6m), Anthony Bass ($1.1m), Shawn Tolleson ($2.6m), Robinson Chirinos ($1.4m), Leonys Martin ($1.6m), Tanner Scheppers ($800k), Bobby Wilson ($800k), Jake Diekman ($1m), Chris Gimenez ($1m), Nick Tepesch ($508k), Jurickson Profar ($508k). It seems likely that the Rangers will re-sign most of these players, with the possible exceptions of Wilson, Bass, and (depending on how the search for a new catcher goes) Gimenez. There is also a very real possibility that Leonys Martin is also bound for free-agency, given his refusal to report to the Arizona Fall League, but I'm holding out hope that he and the team will patch things up. $1.6 million is a steal (pun noted but not intentional) if he returns to his pre-2015 form. If the Rangers aren't able to patch things up, it's possible they could sign Franklin Gutierrez for about the same price. He's been hurt a lot, but when he's healthy, he's shown flashes of brilliance. If he is the de facto fill-in when Josh is hurt, he'll certainly be in line for 2-300 at bats in 2016. Who knows, maybe a lighter workload can keep him healthy? Either way, whether Martin or Gutierrez, the payroll hit stays about the same.
Increase in Payroll, 2016: ~$6.39m
- Departures: Players who played for the Rangers in 2015, and are currently not under contract to do so in 2016, either by having already left the team, or by pending free agency: Yovani Gallardo*, Colby Lewis, Mike Napoli, Ross Ohlendorf, Will Venable, Carlos Corporan, Drew Stubbs, Kyle Blanks, Lisalverto Bonilla, Matt Harrison, Ross Detwiler, Neftali Feliz, Kyuji Fujikawa, Adam Rosales, Wandy Rodriguez, Roman Mendez, Jon Edwards, Carlos Peguero, Tomas Telis, Michael Choice.
Decrease in Payroll, 2016: ~$41.23m
- The Regulars: There are some pay-raises coming for the regulars (most notably: 2016 Cole Hamels is full-price Cole Hamels). One oddity: Josh Hamilton's entire 2016 contract is being paid by the Angels. All of it.
Increase in Payroll, 2016: ~$27.33m
So there's that. Before the Rangers make another move (other than arbitration projections), their payroll will have dropped by about $4 million. For the sake of this exercise, my bosses have given me an additional $10m in payroll increase.
PART TWO: LET'S MAKE SOME SUGGESTIONS I'LL PROBABLY REGRET!
Returning Free Agents:
Players I would re-sign, and a rough estimate on what I think they will earn**
Mike Napoli: He's a perfect complement to Mitch Moreland, but may want to go somewhere he can play every day, so you may have to give him a little more per year and an extra year on the contract to keep him here. 3 years, $12m***
Ross Ohlendorf: Earned his way into Banister's regular bullpen rotation, and was, for the most part, really effective. Also worth the money just to watch his silent-film-era windup. 1 year, $1.5m
Increase in Payroll, 2016: ~$5.5m
New Free Agents:
Assuming the Rangers keep Leonys Martin and don't sign Franklin Gutierrez, I only have one free agent signing: Ben Zobrist, 3 years, $31.5m, team option for fourth year at $10m with a buyout of $3m
This solves a number of problems. First of all, Zobrist is a switch hitter who has played every position but pitcher and catcher. In Texas, he would be the primary left fielder, unless a big trade changed everything (CUE OMINOUS MUSIC). Josh Hamilton becomes your DH and Martin or Gutierrez (discussed above) slide into the 4th outfielder slot.
Increase in Payroll, 2016: ~$10.5m
Trades:
- Prince Fielder to the Orioles, prospects to the Brewers, Jonathan Lucroy to the Rangers****
Let's go ahead and just start this off with a bang. The first assumption is that Chris Davis signs elsewhere. If that happens, Baltimore's first baseman depth chart starts with Ryan Flaherty, and their starting DH is their second-string catcher. That's a massive need to fill, and if the Rangers can offload some of Prince's salary when his value is high(er than it was at the end of 2014), all the better. The prospects and cash-sent-with-Prince would of course be subject to negotiation, but for the sake of this exercise, I'm going to suggest Texas covers $5m/year and Baltimore sends Dylan Bundy(RHP), Mike Wright (RHP) and Chance Cisco (C) to Milwaukee.
Decrease in Payroll, 2016: ~$14.65m
- Nomar Mazara, Chi Chi Gonzalez, Elvis Andrus, and $7m/year to the Mets for Noah Syndegaard and Gabriel Ynoa
Whew. By all accounts, the Mets are not going to make much of an effort to bring back Yoenis Cespedes or Daniel Murphy which leaves left field and second base in question. Shortstop has also been a question mark for awhile. With Andrus at SS, Mazara in LF, and Flores/Tejada sliding over to 2B, you answer all those questions, and the Mets would be paying $7m per year for Elvis.
In return, you get Noah Syndegaard; one of the most electric young starting pitchers in all of baseball, and under team control for years to come. Additionally, Ynoa is Cliff Lee-esque in terms of control, and projects to be a mid-to-back end MLB starter*****
Darvish, Hamels, Syndergaard, Perez, Holland. ...give me a second, I'm a bit woozy.
Of course, this kind of move is easier to pull off in an article. In real life, this move would absolutely be mortgaging the future in an attempt to win a World Series in 2016-18, as the sun begins to set on the Beltre/Darvish window. In addition, when it comes to Syndegaard, 23-year old pitchers who throw 100 mph don't stay 23 year old pitchers who throw 100 mph for long. If I were actually in Jon Daniels' seat, this deal would keep me sleepless for weeks before I was able to pull the trigger.
Decrease in payroll, 2016: $8m
Alright! We have solved left field (Zobrist/Gutierrez), catcher (Lucroy), and in doing so, we've brought in two more right-handed bats. We upgraded the bullpen just by virtue of Keone Kela, Luke Jackson, and Andrew Faulkner being a year older, and we even boosted the rotation to be one of the best in all of baseball. Also, we decreased the budget by over $10m.
WAIT.
I was given a $10m increase…
SIGN YOENIS CESPEDES TO 6/$120m ALRIGHT WORLD SERIES TIME YOU GUYS.
I know! I said the Rangers wouldn't do it! General Managers never tell the truth!
Speaking of lies I've told, just kidding! This also isn't actually happening. Crowd-sourced fangraphs.com contract projections have Cespedes at 6/132. Maybe an extra year gets it done, but I think (hope) the Rangers are smarter than that.
That said, there is another leftfielder available, and one that Jon Daniels and co. have long been enamored with: Justin Upton. FanGraphs estimates his contract to be 6/$120, and while that's probably a little low, it's not an absurd thing to write in this article.
With Upton in left, Ben Zobrist slides back to shortstop until Jurickson Profar is healthy and proves he's ready. Maybe that's not until 2017, but if it does happen in 2016, Zobrist gives you the unique weapon of a guy who can spell your LF, RF, SS, 3B, 2B, and let's be honest, probably 1B as well. He could play every day, giving some older players an extra day of rest-or-at-DH per week, and come Interleague time, heyo, we have an answer for those tricky National League Park double-switches.
Additionally, signing Upton the Greater means that Upton the Lesser will also somehow find a way into a Rangers uniform in 2016. I would still rather have Yoenis Cespedes.
OPENING DAY ROSTER, 2016
Rotation: Cole Hamels, Noah Syndergaard, Martin Perez, Derek Holland, [Martinez/Ranaudo/Klein]-until-Yu-Darvish-is-healthy
Bullpen: Shawn Tolleson, Jake Diekman, Sam Dyson, Keone Kela, Sam Freeman-or-Andrew-Faulkner, Ross Ohlendorf, Luke Jackson
LINEUP
CF: Delino DeShields
RF: Shin-Soo Choo
LF: Justin Upton
3B: Adrian Beltre
1B: Mitch Moreland
DH: Josh Hamilton
SS: Ben Zobrist (til Profar is healthy and ready)
2B: Rougned Odor
C: Jonathan Lucroy
Bench: Robinson Chirinos, Mike Napoli, Hanser Alberto, Leonys Martin-or-Franklin Gutierrez
PART THREE: SOME FOOTNOTES!
*For those of you who know about things like Qualifying Offers, I'm skipping a step here, but I, like most, am making the assumption that the QO is offered and Gallardo declines it.
**Fare thee well, Colby Lewis, not added to this list. I will miss you forever, and I kind of hope I am wrong and you are a Texas Ranger in 2016 and in perpetuity.
***This is assuming the Rangers don't have the budget to go after South Korean 1B Byung-Ho Park, who has a ton of pop from the right side. If this happens, Napoli is definitely gone, and so is one of Prince/Mitch. I don't think they have the budget for the posting fee and contract, but iif they do move Prince, anything is possible, and they may want to avoid repeating the mistake of not finding a way to sign Jose Abreu when he was available. It's worth keeping an eye on, anyway.
****I initially had Prince + salary to the Blue Jays for Edwin Encarnacion. The obvious problem here is that Alex Anthopolous' recent departure from the Blue Jays was rumored to be a response to them eschewing the "load up for another run" mindset, and instead looking to shed payroll in 2016. Also, if Chris Davis does re-sign in Baltimore, maybe Prince ends up in Fenway, assuming he can still play first base; let's face it: if he can't, this exercise gets a whole lot more difficult. You then have to move Shin Soo Choo and now you have two outfield holes to fill. If the Rangers are able to dump Prince's salary, but unable to land Lucroy, maybe they use that money to sign Weiters or Byung-Ho Park and sign - A.J. Pierzynski to be the backup / personal catcher for Yu Darvish, especially since it seems they might be a bit more on the same page now.
*****Adding Ynoa onto this deal may also cost you Lewis Brinson, which means you will have literally traded away all of your best Non-Gallo-or-Profar prospects. So maybe you keep Brinson and leave Ynoa on the table. Either way, there's one additional upside: Syndegaard is a Mansfield native! Marketing Campaign: Sorted!
Let Levi know your thoughts on his offseason plan for the Rangers on Twitter @ThreeTwoEephus.
