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How Big Game Nathan Eovaldi can propel Rangers in World Series Game 1

The Texas Rangers have the home-field advantage and their top hurler on the mound in Game 1 of the World Series against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

ARLINGTON, Texas — Today’s the day, baseball fans. The first game on the grandest stage is set at the doors of Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas. The participants? Two Wild Card teams, fighting the odds of recent franchise history and getting hot at the right time to find themselves battling for the Commissioner’s Trophy.

Both the American League champion Texas Rangers and National League pennant-winning Arizona Diamondbacks swept their opponents in the Wild Card and Division Series to reach the League Championship Series against the World Series combatants of a season ago. Both teams won back-to-back games on the road in the LCS for the right to compete in this Fall Classic.

Both teams beat their heavily favored opponents, bringing us here. Two overlooked teams from the West divisions duking it out to make a name for themselves in the limelight of October. And to start things off, Game 1 presents a good old-fashioned “Ace Off.”

Game 1 match-up

Arizona Diamondbacks (0-0) @ Texas Rangers (0-0), 7:05 PM CT, Globe Life Field, Arlington, Texas – Broadcast on FOX

Starting Pitchers – RHP Zac Gallen (2-2, 5.24 ERA) vs. RHP Nathan Eovaldi (4-0, 2.42 ERA)

The Rangers are looking for just their second win at home this postseason. They clinched the Division Series over the Baltimore Orioles in Arlington but were swept in the three games in the Championship Series when hosting the Houston Astros. 

To accomplish the goal, they send the right man to the mound – the pitcher who has been the staff ace for all but one month of the season, Nathan Eovaldi.

In the regular season, Eovaldi stepped up after Jacob deGrom hit the injured list with season-ending Tommy John surgery. He went 12-5 with a 3.63 ERA over 25 starts with an All-Star Game appearance and an AL May Pitcher of the Month nod. The starts that he missed were due to a forearm strain that he succumbed to in late July, before easing back into the rotation in September.

As the season drew to a close, it didn’t look as if Eovaldi would be what the Rangers needed in October, but once the playoff games started, the 33-year-old veteran kicked it into gear. Totaling 26 innings, Eovaldi has thrown four quality starts for the Rangers, with his best outing coming in the Division Series clincher in Arlington against the Orioles, throwing seven innings and allowing just one run.

There’s no doubt in anyone’s mind that Eovaldi is back to full strength – whether that’s because he’s healed or because he’s just running on postseason adrenaline that has made him a legendary figure in October, is yet to be seen.

Eovaldi did not face the Snakes in the regular season this year, but throughout his career, the righty’s numbers look pretty similar to his postseason line. 

In eight starts against Arizona, Eovaldi sports a 3-0 record with a 2.78 ERA, with the D-Backs slashing .164/.233/.236 against him. The caveat to all of that, though, is that the last time Eovaldi faced Arizona was seven years ago.

On the other side sits Zac Gallen, the Arizona Ace, who finished 5th in the NL Cy Young running last season and was elected to his first All-Star game this year. Gallen, who held a 17-9 record with a 3.47 ERA in the regular season is a huge part of how the Snakes got to the postseason.

There is a good chance he places in the top-5 in Cy Young balloting again. But the Cy Young is based on regular season performance, a good thing for Gallen. The 27-year-old has simply not performed well in the later stages of the 2023 postseason. 

After giving up just two runs in each of his starts against the Brewers in the Wild Card series and the Dodgers in the Division Series, Gallen then allowed the Phillies, with a powerful offense much like the Rangers, to score five runs in Game 1 and four runs in Game 5, both Arizona losses.

Gallen won’t be a surprise to Texas. They faced him both times that the teams played against each other this season. In Arlington back in May, the Rangers tagged Gallen for three runs on seven hits in five innings in the Rangers’ only win against Arizona this season.

When Texas traveled to Chase Field back in August, Gallen was much more the ace that the Diamondbacks had come to expect, holding the Rangers (who were struggling mightily at the time) to one run on seven hits over six frames, while also striking out 11.

X-Factor Players

Looking just at Game 1, the Rangers would love to see Marcus Semien set the tone. With a crowd sure to be thirsty for a World Series lead, having the Rangers’ leadoff man as a true table-setter could turn up the noise and turn up the heat for the D-Backs. But Semien has not enjoyed a successful postseason run, slashing just .192/.276/.231 in all 12 games this October.

He hasn’t hit a home run yet, of which he hit nine leadoff homers in 2023 and 29 overall. Where Semien has had some success is scoring runs, with 15 in Texas’ 12 games this postseason.

For the Diamondbacks, they’re waiting on first baseman Christian Walker to come alive. Last year’s National League Gold Glove first baseman enjoyed the highest full-season slugging percentage of his career this year, at .497. He cranked 33 homers and drove in 103, but in this postseason has hit just .179 with an SLG of .333. He’s only hit one homer and driven in seven runs – but he has walked 11 times.

For the Rangers, it’s been 12 years since the franchise played in the World Series. For the Diamondbacks, 22. Both teams have gone from zeroes to heroes in record time, and their paths to lifting the trophy begin Friday night in Arlington.

Do you think the Rangers will be able to go up 1-0 in the World Series? Share your predictions with Matt on Twitter @FisherWritesMLB.

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