ARLINGTON, Texas — Round two of the battle between the top teams in the American League West starts this weekend. The Texas Rangers, though, have to be cognizant of one thing – no matter how they fare over this upcoming three-game set, they can’t leave Seattle with a division lead. They can, however, begin their ascent with a successful series against the Mariners.
After taking two of three from the Los Angeles Dodgers to begin this West Coast road trip, Texas finds itself 5.5 games back in the division with Seattle having just taken three of four from the lowly Chicago White Sox.
As cliché as it sounds, the Rangers just have to focus on one game at a time as victories in this series will shave games off Seattle’s pace but losses will sink Texas further behind their Pacific Northwest rivals.
Texas Rangers (33-35, 2nd Place AL West, 5.5 GB) @ Seattle Mariners (40-31, 1st Place AL West, +5.5)
Previously, for Seattle…
The Mariners, the team with the worst record among the three first place teams in the American League, had some dogfights against the White Sox leading up to this series. It took until the final two frames for the Mariners to get going in an 8-4 win in the opener against Chicago. All eight of Seattle's runs, including a Cal Raleigh walk-off grand slam, were scored late after trailing early.
On Tuesday, the White Sox led for most of the contest – until Raleigh struck again, with a go-ahead, two-run double in the bottom of the seventh. Thursday’s contest saw a different hero at the dish, but once again a come-from-behind victory was the result for the Mariners as Mitch Haniger hit a walk-off single.
The Mariners finally paid the price for overlooking the White Sox as they trailed by a couple of runs from the second inning on before tying the game in the ninth. The magic wore out though, as Chicago scored in the 10th and handed Seattle their one loss in the series in the finale.
Most of the Mariners’ wins throughout this season have been low-scoring affairs – something the Rangers have been unable to replicate at the same rate – as the club has only reached 10 runs in a game just twice this season. But the strength of Seattle lies in its pitching. As a whole, the Mariners’ pitching staff sits seventh in the Majors overall and fifth in the American League in ERA.
While the Mariners’ relievers haven’t been as stout, sitting 12th in the Majors with a 3.68 ERA, their starting rotation is comfortably in the top five in the big leagues. Led by Luis Castillo and Logan Gilbert, the M’s boast potentially one of the most consistent starting rotations in the league, with every regular starter having an ERA in 3s. Each of Seattle’s starters also have a WHIP between 0.97 and 1.16, they’re all right around 80 strikeouts, and they all allow a modest one home run per nine innings.
The stellar pitching has been a godsend because the Mariners’ offense isn’t going to blow anyone out of the water, at least not thus far. Julio Rodriguez is obviously the team’s major star, but it’s left fielder Luke Raley who holds the Mariners’ best slash line at .264/.310/.442. The offense as a whole has been below league average in terms of run support for their pitchers. The arms have received an average of 3.8 runs per game, below the league average of 4.4.
What to watch for
Game 69, 9:10 PM CT - LHP Andrew Heaney (2-7, 4.06 ERA) vs. RHP Luis Castillo (5-7, 3.35 ERA)
Game 70, 6:15 PM CT - RHP Nathan Eovaldi (3-2, 2.68 ERA) vs. RHP George Kirby (5-5, 3.81 ERA)
Game 71, 3:10 PM CT - RHP Dane Dunning (4-5, 4.80 ERA) vs. RHP Logan Gilbert (3-4, 3.19 ERA
There’s no one in the Mariners rotation that you’d really ask to face, but the Rangers aren’t catching much of a break regardless as Seattle has lined up arguably their three best starters for Texas this weekend. The Rangers were originally scheduled to miss Castillo, but the Mariners made the decision to recall their 2020 first-round pick, Emerson Hancock, and push everyone back a day.
So first up will be Castillo, considered the team’s ace. Last time against Texas, Castillo held the Rangers to two earned runs on four hits over six innings in the finale of a series that the Mariners would win two games to one as they leapfrogged over the Rangers to take a division lead back in late April. Overall, though, Texas has had Castillo’s number, as the righty is 1-3 with a 4.35 ERA against the Rangers during his career.
Gilbert will close out the series on Sunday for Seattle. Gilbert picked up a win against the Rangers in April, shutting out Texas over 6 ⅔ innings, while Seattle scored four. Gilbert’s odd stat is that the Mariners are 40-9 when they score three or more runs with Gilbert on the mound; Gilbert himself is undefeated when Seattle scores at least three runs.
On Saturday, George Kirby takes the hill for Seattle. Kirby’s May was a bit of a rollercoaster, bookended by two one-run outings, but giving up 14 runs over four games in between that. His two starts in June have been much better, and last time, he gave up just one run over seven innings against Kansas City.
Texas and its rotation sit two spots behind Seattle overall in terms of ERA (3.53 to 3.41). The Rangers will send Andrew Heaney, Nathan Eovaldi, and Dane Dunning to the hill against the M’s this weekend.
Heaney, the Rangers rotation Iron Man so far, has allowed three runs in 11 ⅔ innings so far in two starts in June. All three of those runs came in a hard luck 3-1 loss to the Giants last Saturday after he shut out the Marlins over six innings in his first outing of the month. Last time against Seattle, Heaney gave up four runs in six innings, although that was leading into a May in which he turned things around.
Eovaldi most recently had his best start since coming off the injured list earlier this month, holding San Francisco to just two runs in seven innings in Texas’ lone win in that series. Sunday’s starter Dunning, however, struggled against the Dodgers in the opening game of that series. He gave up six runs in 3 ⅔ innings, his worst start of the year.
The depth of the Rangers’ bullpen will be tested as well. With the low scoring and close affairs in the final two games in Los Angeles, manager Bruce Bochy used both David Robertson and Kirby Yates on back-to-back nights and also had Jose Leclerc in the game or warming. Robertson and Yates may not be available for the first game of the series; names like Jake Latz, Jose Urena and Jonathan Hernandez will have to show up for the ‘pen, especially if Heaney has a short outing.
If you want to look at things from a glass half full perspective, perhaps facing Seattle can be something of a relaxed, stress-free environment for the Rangers’ lineup. With the Mariners sitting in the bottom five of the league in runs scored at 271, Texas might not need to live up to the expectation of being a powerhouse offense to overpower them. Nevertheless, these games may come down to who scores the last run of the game.
That said, the Mariners have performed well at home. Including taking three for four from the White Sox, the Mariners are 24-12 at T-Mobile Park. The Rangers, on the other hand, are 17-18 on the road.
On paper, this looks to be a low-scoring series between two teams that have pitched better than they’ve hit so far in 2024. With both offenses struggling to score consistently, the series may come down to which staff can best avoid flare ups that allow the opposition breathing room.
Do you think the Rangers will be able to make a dent in Seattle’s AL West lead? Share your predictions with Matt on X (formerly Twitter) @FisherWritesMLB.
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